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No Global Warming for Almost Two Decades

The Science and Public Policy Institute has been asked to comment on the apparent inconsistency between the news that July 2012 was the warmest July since 1895 in the contiguous United States and the news that the Meteorological Office in the UK has cut its global warming forecast for the coming years. The present paper is a response to that interesting question.
The Science and Public Policy Institute has been asked to comment on the apparent inconsistency between the news that July 2012 was the warmest July since 1895 in the contiguous United States and the news that the Meteorological Office in the UK has cut its global warming forecast for the coming years. The present paper is a response to that interesting question.

Early in August 2012, the NOAA issued a statement to the effect that July 2012 had been the hottest month in the contiguous U.S. since records began in 1895. NOAA said the July 2012 temperature had been 77.6 degrees Fahrenheit, 0.2 F° warmer than the previous July record, set in 1936.

However, NOAA's statement was based on incomplete information that has since been revised. Updated data available at the NCDC website (NCDC is the division of NOAA that maintains national climatic data for the United States) show that July 2012's temperature was not 77.6 °F, as NOAA had previously claimed, but 76.9 °F, half a degree Fahrenheit below the record 77.4 °F set in July 1936

Even this revised value may be a considerable exaggeration. In response to criticisms of the siting of U.S. temperature monitoring stations, in 2008 NOAA introduced a new network of carefully sited stations with up-to-date, standardized, properly monitored equipment. The Climate Reference Network, as it is called, shows that the July temperature for the continental U.S. was 75.6 °F, lower by 1.3 °F than stated by the NOAA in August 2012 based on incomplete data from its older, poorly-sited stations influenced by urban heat-island effects, and lower by 2 full Fahrenheit degrees than the 77.6 °F that NOAA had published in August 2012.

For some unaccountable reason, NOAA has not issued any statement correcting its original false claim that July 2012 was the warmest July since 1895. Indeed, the accurately-sited and properly-maintained Climate Reference Network is consistently delivering significantly lower contiguous-US temperatures than the older network: yet, again unaccountably, NOAA finds it expedient not to draw attention to the inconvenient results from its new network.

To summarize: NOAA, on incomplete data from an outdated, ill-sited, poorly-maintained network, stated in August 2012 that the July 2012 temperature in the contiguous U.S. had been 77.6 °F. The temperature in July 1936, the previous record, had been 77.4 °F. By the end of 2012, corrections to the NOAA dataset, but still based on the outdated network, showed that the July 2012 temperature in the contiguous U.S. had been 76.9 °F, half a degree below the July 1936 record. Also, the new Climate Reference Network shows that the July 2012 temperature in the contiguous U.S. had been 75.6 °F, two full degrees Fahrenheit below the erroneous value the NOAA had erroneously trumpeted as a new July record.

So to the UK Met Office. It has issued a revised projection of temperature change to 2017. Its previous projection, made last year, had predicted that global temperature would rise by around 1 Fahrenheit degree more than its revised projection, based on a new computer model, "HadGEM3". If the new projection proves correct, by 2017 the global warming in the 20 years since 1997 will have been statistically indistinguishable from zero for two full decades.

For comparison, the least-squares linear-regression trend on the HadCRUt4 monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly data for the past 18 years is statistically indistinguishable from zero; similarly for the HadCRUt3 for the past 19 years; and similarly for the RSS satellite lower-troposphere dataset for the past 23 years.

 http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=10987

homepage: homepage: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_u81qXOYfKg


. 23.Feb.2013 12:52

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. 23.Feb.2013 12:56

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lol 23.Feb.2013 14:00

........

Were you alive last summer? Even in the middle east people walking around mid spring going "whatever happened to spring?"

You know, 2/3rds of the American public are now on board with the whole "holy shit were going to die" argument. It transends race, class, political ideogy...

When winter let's up people will realize what was happening all winter in most of the u.s. DROUGHT. And it ain't getting any better this year. So give it up. You lost.

Another COLD winter vs global warming hoax "2013"! . 23.Feb.2013 17:36

Agenda 21

6-minute video - Europe experiencing 20 year record cold:
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdXzRxnsf-E

Notice the Antartic ice cap has been expanding for several years?  link to www.climatecentral.org

How about the Little Ice Age or the Medieval Warming Period or the toasty Jurassic Period? Try doing a little thinking, folks, instead of begging for your own enslavement.

 http://batr.org/autonomy/012713.html
Davos 2013: Green Governance To 'Save the World' is all about enacting their Agenda 21 authoritarianism. Elizabeth Leafloor from RedIceCreations.com writes:
"The WEF suggests a crisis of leadership and debt are some of the biggest challenges facing the world, and that 'global governance' is the key to stabilization. Pascal Lamy, director-general of the World Trade Organisation, said: 'We need proper global governance that has the necessary tools, power and energy to create a more level playing field at the international level.'

At the end of the day, a push for increased global governance and an environmental agenda is on the table for Davos 2013, under the banner of 'Resilent Dynamism':

"Mr. Klaus Schwab (WEF Founder and executive chairman) said that the world is seeing "a new reality of sudden shocks and prolonged global economic malaise, particularly in major economies experiencing economic austerity". He also mentioned, "Future growth in this new context requires dynamism - bold vision and even bolder action.

Either attribute - Resilience or Dynamism - alone is insufficient, as leadership in 2013 will require both".

The "Greening" leadership translates into forcing upon the world a "Cap and Trade" dictatorship. The Calderon bandits that sip champagne from their Swiss chateau want to extend their aristocratic bondage upon a gullible public. The proper dictum is "Save the World" from the New World Order elites.

Op didn't get the memo 23.Feb.2013 17:56

rex

The initial "global warming" issue has long since been clarified to include "climate change", specifically rapid human induced climate change.
 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming

And total average global warming does not equal hot all the time everywhere.

One result is wild fluctuations is weather, with decreasing mildness. This is worrying when seasons switch suddenly from extreme hot to extreme cold for example.

I know people 10 years ago who would never use a greenhouse in the Pacific Northwest. Now they're almost a necessity, at least to sprout seedlings. The gradual season changes are less gradual and more sudden. That is not a good thing.

famed idiot Lord Monckton banned for life from UN climate talks 23.Feb.2013 18:26

hdf

This guy has all of the scientific expertise as Dr. Bunsen Honeydew:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bunsen_Honeydew

 link to grist.org

.......... 23.Feb.2013 18:58

........

Food distribution in the new world...who'll eat and who won't? Dr. Funkenstein herell be singing a different tune avocados cost 100$ WHATLL YOU MAKE YOUR GAUCEMOLE OUT OF THEN HUH?

why must we spend so much time correcting idiots? 23.Feb.2013 19:03

hdf

It used to be they would run around the village commons and leave the rest of us alone, now we have to spend all this time showing how they are wrong. This is why hereditary titles/money/power are a problem.

 http://www.skepticalscience.com/going-down-the-up-escalator-part-1.html

Agenda 21 Global Warming Hoax 23.Feb.2013 19:06

James Lampe

After schooling in the Environmental Sciences, and cleaning up toxic waste sites for an environmental agency, my hobby became global warming. At first it was interesting because the prevailing theory was always changing, but as new theories were advanced, they relied more on data adjustments and political strategy, than science. Today, Americans perceive global warming as a low priority item, and have turned their attention to our economic and security concerns. But big government agencies (UN and US) and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) continue to quietly expand UN influence, by teaching their insidious Marxist policies to the bureaucratic, naive, and idiotic.

In 1972, Drs. George Kukla and Robert Matthews were the central figures in convincing the US government that climate change was a threat. Kukla worked with geologist Robert Matthews of Brown University, and presented the conference: "The Present Interglacial: How and When will it End?" Their presentation influenced President Nixon to create the "Panel on the Present Interglacial."

In a 1974 Time article, Dr. George J. Kukla said the earth was in crisis because his research indicated the earth was headed into an Ice Age! Time reported: "The trend shows no indication of reversing." Sound familiar? But in the 1981 article: "Evidence is Found of warming Trend," Kukla said: "We have found within the general pattern a warming element in the right place and in the right season; it is just where we expected it from the theory, it fits nicely."

The UN jumped on the environmental issue at the 1972 UN Conference on the Human Environment, at Stockholm, Sweden. It was organized and led by Canadian, Maurice Strong, the Secretary-General of the Conference. During this conference, the UN Environment Programme was born, which has worldwide jurisdiction over UN environmental matters. The first Executive Director of UNEP was Maurice Strong.

At the June 1992 Rio Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), Maurice Strong kicked off the conference by calling you a wasteful capitalist pig! Aiming his words at America he said: "It is clear that current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the affluent middle class—involving high meat intake, consumption of large amounts of frozen and convenience foods, use of fossil fuels, appliances, home and work-place air-conditioning, and suburban housing—are not sustainable. A shift is necessary toward lifestyles less geared to environmentally damaging consumption patterns."

It was at Rio, that the UNEP issued Agenda 21, a 40-chapter plan detailing the global goals of the UNEP. "Agenda 21" refers to the goals the UN wants to achieve in the 21st century. The UN also created the UN's Division for Sustainable Development, to fund and manage the implementation of Agenda 21. (In 1992, Congress ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change, which GH Bush signed. In 1993, WJ Clinton issued Executive Order 12852, creating the "President's Council on Sustainable Development." Its purpose: "The Council shall advise the President on matters involving sustainable development."

For 30 years the UN has fomented worldwide hysteria based upon the premise of global destruction by CO2, and a large percentage of the population reacted just as HL Mencken predicted: "The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed, and hence clamorous to be led to safety, by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."

The science of global warming has been unraveling for years, but one of the most glaring revelations came in 2007, when a UK High Court judge considered the science behind the 2006 Academy Award winning movie "Inconvenient Truth." The judge ruled the movie contained nine significant errors and ruled it was a "political" movie, not a science movie.

Through the serendipity of Climategate, we discovered that although Russian weather stations cover most of Russia: "the Hadley Center had used data submitted by only 25% of such stations in its reports." Then came the discovery that famed UK global warming scientist Professor Phil Jones moved weather stations in China. As the scientific methods of global warming scientists were aired, the number of skeptics increased, and one petition now has over 31,000 signatures.

But while the world was debating, the UN was infiltrating! The UN has been quietly training local governments and universities on UN sustainability policies and organizing techniques since 1990. Their plans are in Chapter 28 of Agenda 21, which advises: "Local authority programmes, policies, laws and regulations to achieve Agenda 21 objectives would be assessed and modified, based on local programmes adopted." This chapter is a primer on how to infiltrate the US at every level, and in every organization.
Summary

For 30 years UN scientists contorted scientific theories, data, and "hockey sticks" to cobble their science together. The current status of global warming can be summarized with the Jeffersonian maxim: "It is error alone which needs the support of government. Truth can stand by itself." It is now clear that global warming was an epic scam. Please consider:

Why reduce CO2 emissions to 1990 levels as called for in the Kyoto Treaty? Which scientists determined the 1990 CO2 levels would save the planet? Actually, the 1990 level was negotiated by bureaucrats, and despite their assertion that CO2 is harmful, they exempted two of the biggest CO2 emitters, China and India.

In 2007, Newsweek columnist Fareed Zakaria discovered: "These two countries (China and India) are currently building 650 coal-fired power plants. The combined CO2 emissions of these new plants is five times the total savings of the Kyoto accords-that is, if the Kyoto targets were being adhered to by western countries, which they are not." (Quoted in Climate Change and Presidential Policy, p4.)
Climategate. "Hey buddy, can you tweak some data and delete a few emails for me?"
The 1992 Rio delegates actually admitted that science doesn't matter!

Principle 15: "In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by States according to their capabilities. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation."
In 2003, Economist Michael Grubb wrote: "The Protocol is essentially an agreement to extend economic globalization to environmental policy: to establish a global emissions market to counter the global environmental consequences of global economic growth." Fortunately, there were men of vision such as Al Gore, Maurice Strong, and Barack Obama, who teamed up with their friends at Goldman Sachs to create such a system, and thus was born the Chicago Climate Exchange. (CCX).
In November 2010, UN environmental economist Ottmar Edenhofer admitted that in regard to UN environmental policy: "developed countries have basically expropriated the atmosphere of the world community. But one must say clearly that we redistribute de facto the world's wealth by climate policy."

The UN infiltration of America was authorized by bipartisan quisling presidents, whose actions empowered the UN to quietly train and create; hundreds of Marxists change agents at all levels of government and academia. This has been a stealth operation and completely under the media radar. The people who have assimilated the global warming sustainability propaganda are trained and motivated advocates who uphold the New World Order of sustainability by UN fiat, not the Constitution of capitalists. Sound far-fetched? The US Congress never passed a bill approving green house gas regulations or Cap and Trade. But that hasn't stopped the EPA from promulgating GHG regulations; and in November 2010, the EPA took a step towards globalizing environmental compliance by signing a cooperative agreement with the European Chemicals Agency, for: "the implementation and further development of EU policies."

There are hundreds of cities from El Cerrito, California, to Belfast, Maine, that have been trained, and agreed to implement UN Agenda 21 policies! The barbarians are inside our offices, municipal buildings, and schools! If this UN advocacy for a New World Order is not reversed, isn't it only a matter of time until America becomes known as the most powerful country in the North American Union?


Global Surface Temperature: Going Down the Up Escalator 23.Feb.2013 19:17

agenda 13


WTF!?! 23.Feb.2013 20:23

x

Global Cooling is now global cooling? Too funny.

OMG, dude, we’re all going to die! Quick, give us all your money and freedom! 23.Feb.2013 21:08

Agenda 21

Scientists respond to Gore's warnings of climate catastrophe
"The Inconvenient Truth" is indeed inconvenient to alarmists

By Tom Harris

Monday, June 12, 2006

"Scientists have an independent obligation to respect and present the truth as they see it," Al Gore sensibly asserts in his film "An Inconvenient Truth", showing at Cumberland 4 Cinemas in Toronto since Jun 2. With that outlook in mind, what do world climate experts actually think about the science of his movie?

Professor Bob Carter of the Marine Geophysical Laboratory at James Cook University, in Australia gives what, for many Canadians, is a surprising assessment: "Gore's circumstantial arguments are so weak that they are pathetic. It is simply incredible that they, and his film, are commanding public attention."
See also:
Global Warming: The Cold, Hard Facts?
US being hoodwinked into draconian climate policies
The Gods must be laughing
A sample of experts' comments about the science of "An Inconvenient Truth":

But surely Carter is merely part of what most people regard as a tiny cadre of "climate change skeptics" who disagree with the "vast majority of scientists" Gore cites?

No; Carter is one of hundreds of highly qualified non-governmental, non-industry, non-lobby group climate experts who contest the hypothesis that human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are causing significant global climate change. "Climate experts" is the operative term here. Why? Because what Gore's "majority of scientists" think is immaterial when only a very small fraction of them actually work in the climate field.

Even among that fraction, many focus their studies on the impacts of climate change; biologists, for example, who study everything from insects to polar bears to poison ivy. "While many are highly skilled researchers, they generally do not have special knowledge about the causes of global climate change," explains former University of Winnipeg climatology professor Dr. Tim Ball. "They usually can tell us only about the effects of changes in the local environment where they conduct their studies."

This is highly valuable knowledge, but doesn't make them climate change cause experts, only climate impact experts.

So we have a smaller fraction.

But it becomes smaller still. Among experts who actually examine the causes of change on a global scale, many concentrate their research on designing and enhancing computer models of hypothetical futures. "These models have been consistently wrong in all their scenarios," asserts Ball. "Since modelers concede computer outputs are not "predictions" but are in fact merely scenarios, they are negligent in letting policy-makers and the public think they are actually making forecasts."

We should listen most to scientists who use real data to try to understand what nature is actually telling us about the causes and extent of global climate change. In this relatively small community, there is no consensus, despite what Gore and others would suggest.

Here is a small sample of the side of the debate we almost never hear:

Appearing before the Commons Committee on Environment and Sustainable Development last year, Carleton University paleoclimatologist Professor Tim Patterson testified, "There is no meaningful correlation between CO2 levels and Earth's temperature over this [geologic] time frame. In fact, when CO2 levels were over ten times higher than they are now, about 450 million years ago, the planet was in the depths of the absolute coldest period in the last half billion years." Patterson asked the committee, "On the basis of this evidence, how could anyone still believe that the recent relatively small increase in CO2 levels would be the major cause of the past century's modest warming?"

Patterson concluded his testimony by explaining what his research and "hundreds of other studies" reveal: on all time scales, there is very good correlation between Earth's temperature and natural celestial phenomena such changes in the brightness of the Sun.

Dr. Boris Winterhalter, former marine researcher at the Geological Survey of Finland and professor in marine geology, University of Helsinki, takes apart Gore's dramatic display of Antarctic glaciers collapsing into the sea. "The breaking glacier wall is a normally occurring phenomenon which is due to the normal advance of a glacier," says Winterhalter. "In Antarctica the temperature is low enough to prohibit melting of the ice front, so if the ice is grounded, it has to break off in beautiful ice cascades. If the water is deep enough icebergs will form."

Dr. Wibjorn Karlen, emeritus professor, Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Sweden, admits, "Some small areas in the Antarctic Peninsula have broken up recently, just like it has done back in time. The temperature in this part of Antarctica has increased recently, probably because of a small change in the position of the low pressure systems."

But Karlen clarifies that the 'mass balance' of Antarctica is positive - more snow is accumulating than melting off. As a result, Ball explains, there is an increase in the 'calving' of icebergs as the ice dome of Antarctica is growing and flowing to the oceans. When Greenland and Antarctica are assessed together, "their mass balance is considered to possibly increase the sea level by 0.03 mm/year - not much of an effect," Karl»n concludes.

The Antarctica has survived warm and cold events over millions of years. A meltdown is simply not a realistic scenario in the foreseeable future.

Gore tells us in the film, "Starting in 1970, there was a precipitous drop-off in the amount and extent and thickness of the Arctic ice cap." This is misleading, according to Ball: "The survey that Gore cites was a single transect across one part of the Arctic basin in the month of October during the 1960s when we were in the middle of the cooling period. The 1990 runs were done in the warmer month of September, using a wholly different technology."

Karlen explains that a paper published in 2003 by University of Alaska professor Igor Polyakov shows that, the region of the Arctic where rising temperature is supposedly endangering polar bears showed fluctuations since 1940 but no overall temperature rise. "For several published records it is a decrease for the last 50 years," says Karl»n

Dr. Dick Morgan, former advisor to the World Meteorological Organization and climatology researcher at University of Exeter, U.K. gives the details, "There has been some decrease in ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic over the past 30 years but no melt down. The Canadian Ice Service records show that from 1971-1981 there was average, to above average, ice thickness. From 1981-1982 there was a sharp decrease of 15% but there was a quick recovery to average, to slightly above average, values from 1983-1995. A sharp drop of 30% occurred again 1996-1998 and since then there has been a steady increase to reach near normal conditions since 2001."

Concerning Gore's beliefs about worldwide warming, Morgan points out that, in addition to the cooling in the NW Atlantic, massive areas of cooling are found in the North and South Pacific Ocean; the whole of the Amazon Valley; the north coast of South America and the Caribbean; the eastern Mediterranean, Black Sea, Caucasus and Red Sea; New Zealand and even the Ganges Valley in India. Morgan explains, "Had the IPCC used the standard parameter for climate change (the 30 year average) and used an equal area projection, instead of the Mercator (which doubled the area of warming in Alaska, Siberia and the Antarctic Ocean) warming and cooling would have been almost in balance."

Gore's point that 200 cities and towns in the American West set all time high temperature records is also misleading according to Dr. Roy Spencer, Principal Research Scientist at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. "It is not unusual for some locations, out of the thousands of cities and towns in the U.S., to set all-time records," he says. "The actual data shows that overall, recent temperatures in the U.S. were not unusual."

Carter does not pull his punches about Gore's activism, "The man is an embarrassment to US science and its many fine practitioners, a lot of whom know (but feel unable to state publicly) that his propaganda crusade is mostly based on junk science."

In April sixty of the world's leading experts in the field asked Prime Minister Harper to order a thorough public review of the science of climate change, something that has never happened in Canada. Considering what's at stake - either the end of civilization, if you believe Gore, or a waste of billions of dollars, if you believe his opponents - it seems like a reasonable request.

ID10T 23.Feb.2013 22:58

DUDE

Res ipsa loquitur
ICE 9
ICE 9