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Here it comes

First debris from Japanese earthquake/tsunami reaches Olympic Peninsula
Good local article describing the expected arrival of debris from the Japanese quake and tsunami.

 link to www.peninsuladailynews.com

Expected also (I guess it can be determined 'debris', but it's a rather irreverent term when applied to life) are human body parts, of which any finders are asked to treat with some reverence. Myself, I wouldn't touch the stuff. More ominous, but hardly mentioned, might be some cesium, strontium, and any other of the direct and daughter products from the nuke plants that were copiously discharged, and continue to be discharged to this day. While the radioactive products are diluted, and levels are likely to be very low in the water itself, the physical evidence of proof for much of the modelling of ocean flow should give us more than a occasion for thought. Models for the contamination and bioaccumulation of nuclear materials (and their manifestations, which are documented now in Japanese agricultural products, or in the jerk, who, to prove it safe, brazenly drank the contaminated water publicly and now has severe health issues that are difficult to link elsewhere; proof taken, you idiot) can be linked to those proven models and are likely pretty close, too. These models just take longer to show their proof. One might personally hope that they're wrong. (I certainly do.) Hope, though, can't be statistically shown as a valid factor in ascertaining possibility. "Better safe than sorry" is a phrase that has more validity than any statistic barring special circumstances, and is probably as old as humanity as we know it.

The Japanese are faced with an impossible situation because of the reliance upon statistical probabilities, which, rather than state what is really probable (extreme failure) are used to convince only that failure may not happen in a specific timeframe with specificly assumed parameters. How many
in the general public, even those who took a statistics course in school, really give some thought and really understand that? Does one notice the differentiation between the definitions of probability and possibility, (at odds with real-life definitions) that are used in statistics and are contradictory to
experiences of history? I guess statisticians, in most cases, aren't really historians; they're simply accumlators employed to convey a feeling of optimism or pessimism respectively responsible to those paying the bills or to convey misgivings. While the latter, regarding nuke applications, might gain more of my respect, my trust will not be given easily. Direct knowledge and its application have great power, but I'm a big advocate of intuition and personal knowledge. What they tell me is that there
are surely limitations to both forms of information for judgement. Neither alone can be allowed to shine a light on any situation. I've a somewhat technical background, and have found that even with the most predictable materials and applications, I've never enough information to anything that doesn't challenge chance and my ability to predict every nuance of circumstance. Sure, I make assumptions and act accordingly. It's what's necessary for change, be it in the shape of a piece of metal, or a matter of the essence of my spirit. Any differentiation is convenience of thought, not reason for discount of one approach over another. It's only value that is discounted, often at one's peril, as a penny will buy little, while becoming an intuitive tool in another.

Life is about judgement, and extreme failure must be a component in any evaluation of reasoning in any situation, simply because that possibility is always there, however nicely the math or the language in which the rationale for an action is stated. There are some things about which we as collective humanity should never be casual, and nuke power and production for weapons or even medical reasons contribute too little, in my personal judgement, to be worthwhile. The simple reasons for consideration, after all, are economic and little more. We've gotten along, maybe not nicely, but definitely gotten along for ages without it. I have children, would give up any security or radiation therapy to not be viewed as an outright thief of their right to a life that, without an exponential leap in remidiation technology, doesn't suck. And I do hate to think that they, for their survival, have to take a psychopathic view and adopt an 'every man to himself' attitude. To my mind, that attitude is collective doom, and is a greater sin than even the possibility of an extiction-level event that 1200 or so nuclear facilities and their accumulation might threaten. The sad fact is that either way, we'll be responsible for killing ourselves. I can't accept that.

Don't we make life and death decisions every day? It's one commonality of the human condition hardly mentioned for one reason or another, and constant entertainment of the probability of failure would likely drive one to any number of reactions adverse to oneself or humanity in general. It's well proven that stress invites adverse effects even upon one's physical health, and mental health seems much more tenuous in anyone other than one extremely pschopathic. Why we equate such a mental abomination, the ability to make 'difficult decisions' as 'strength' is simply beyond me personally. Anything beyond practicality in those difficult decisions invites my criticism. It's the stuff of the myth of patriarchal culture, the 'heroes', who are statistically (I use this term with tongue in cheek) prone to tragedy and/or abomination and early death of themselves or others with only minimal exception.

While we here are faced with the same problem as the Japanese regarding what to do about the situation (simply at a loss, as there is no solution but to contain best as they can, wait for the short-lived radioactivity and decay heat to subside, containing and cleaning up with as little loss of life that can be proven to be directly linked in monetary liability and blame), we do need to be aware. This applies not only to the sea, but to the air, as the Japanese have begun to incinerate and spread into the jet stream enormous amounts of material. They just don't know what to do with it, and have resorted to an ancient (with some technological twists) method of getting rid of contamination (spiritual as well as physical). They will, I'm sure, then dump the now concentrated ashes and sludge from that debris into (you guessed it) the sea. One has to wonder what the ocean and the life that needs to call it 'mother' (all life, in fact) can take without protest in one form or another. In that respect, though, and without statistical exercise, I can be absolutely sure we will eventually be informed.

Demand testing for ALL of the nuclear products and their concentrations, not just cesium and interpolation of the others, insist upon extended vigilance and documentation of what may be manifestations of this accident that we can be as prepared as possible. As in any situation, the weak (or the stupid) will be impacted most. Personally, I prefer to be defined as 'weak'.

Though I wrote this poem and posted it here regarding the BP spill, I would like to end this by reposting it, and I hope anyone reading finds some value in it (and maybe some comfort in knowing that I care about them, if no one else might). Best of life and luck to us all.

But, Oh!...Do I Cry

The technical aspects fascinate
the other character who shares
space between my ears.
But, oh!...Do I cry!
What comfort in lonely days
do worldly contrivances give?

Myself and my companion
lead a life steeped in possibility,
pushing its road deep into the wilderness.
But we are one and alone,
and I temper his spirit,
dreadfully aware that probability as failure,
like a pet tiger cub,
Seemingly innocent and 'cute'
that we might smile at its leaps into
spaces vacated by our footsteps following,
that tiger will become eventually
full-grown and strong,
hardly a partner requiring
a turn of the head to entice along.
Its elegant, self-assured stride beside us
will give little evidence of its tolerance and whim.
We attempt to keep exposure to ourselves.

The tigers are native to possibility,
proliferate in the wilderness, wild.
Many with little respect violate their space,
lead great expeditions that require multiple others,
the willed and unwilling,
the informed and ignorant.
We come upon the bones and bodies
lonely and unattended.
One instance brings to light others:
the estuary of the Niger, Ecuador,
the soiled slopes of white mountains,
and debris forsaken upon tundra...
We have only wonder
of what they may have sought.
Their countless secrets whisper at approach
a lesson we already know
from our poetic and less terminal encounters.

Hardly shamed of the technical fascination,
my inner companion questioned, answers:
"But, oh! Do I cry!"
Sharing one heart, I knew, but had to ask.
Our tiger admonishes:
don't create more secrets.
My power now has testament.