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Georgia traded for Iran?

Has a deal been done?
The US has the finest spy satellite system in the world. The Pentagon undoubtedly had clear, multi-spectrum stills and video of the buildup of troops, logistics, and tanks on the Georgian/Ossetian border, days (at least) prior to the invasion. Why, then, was the US public not informed?

Anyone old enough to remember Grenada, 1983, when Ron Reagan got in front of altered aerial photos, on national TV, to show a "Soviet air terminal" (in a visual scare-reference to the U2 Cuban Missile Crisis pictures)? It was really a commercial tourist air facility, but the point is, had the US government wished to back off the Russians last week, we would have been shown the military threat. In detail. (And maybe we would have been given those hokey duct tape/shovel-o-dirt nuclear air raid instructions.)

And what exactly did Bush Junior mean by his comment that the Russians had exceeded "assurances?" What assurances could have been made, if indeed the invasion was a surprise?

My question, then: Did George trade Georgia for Iran? There is an armada headed for the Persian Gulf right now:

 http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Analysis_Is_war_in_the_(Gulf)_air_999.html

link didn't work 12.Aug.2008 20:38

tm

Sorry...try metacrawler search on "USS Theodore Roosevelt."

Here is an excerpt:

"Leading the joint naval task force is the nuclear-powered carrier the USS Theodore Roosevelt and its Carrier Strike Group Two; besides its 80-plus combat planes the Roosevelt normally transports, it is carrying an additional load of French Naval Rafale fighter jets from the French carrier Charles de Gaulle, currently in dry dock.

Also reported heading toward Iran is another nuclear-powered carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan and its Carrier Strike Group Seven; the USS Iwo Jima, the Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal and a number of French warships, including the nuclear hunter-killer submarine Amethyste.

Once on site, the joint naval force in the Persian Gulf region will be joining two other U.S. naval battle groups already in position: the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Peleliu; the Lincoln with its carrier strike group and the latter with an expeditionary strike group."

Proxy war makes sense 12.Aug.2008 21:47

old dude

A proxy war in Georgia makes sense. Us casualties would be limited. War with Iran could result in a hundred thousand US casualties. It only took 50,000 US casualties for the US to give up on Vietnam.

The US casualty rate in Iraq is actually very high. 70,000 Gulf and Iraq warvets are DEAD. "Depleted" uranium is the main culprit. The US people don't mind killing our soldiers quietly. No body bags or flag draped coffins...

there are things which are neither caused nor affected by the US 12.Aug.2008 22:35

.

It is possible that the US is behind Saakashvili's plan; it's also possible that they simply green-lighted his plan. It's also possible that he's just another crazy imperialist with delusions of grandeur.

So it could be a trade, but it could just as likely be a gambit. If the Russians were to occupy Georgia, and I do not believe they will, it would bog them down and reduce their ability to intervene against US attacks on Iran. Still, I think the fundamental flaw with the US government is not that they are stupid or incompetent, merely that they believe themselves to be far smarter than they are. Though, to be fair, I would not have thought their efforts in Iraq would be so successful.


Some reading:


I predict that it will be impossible, that it is already inconceivable, that any significant actor in the American imperial apparatus will be capable of perceiving any series of events without conceiving of America as the primus motor.

That said, it was every Liberal's favorite, super-good, unimpeachable, totally excellent war that laid the groundwork for this type of action by Russia, if not necessarily this particular outcome. As Bill Clinton wagged the dog over Serbia, the Russians objected again and again, and the Western response was to tell them to suck balls.

 http://whoisioz.blogspot.com/2008/08/from-russia-with-shove.html


If it wasn't for the thousands of dead, and the tens of thousands running for their lives, the American pundit-politico reaction to Russia's pummeling of Georgia would be a dark laugh riot. Okay, it is a dark laugh riot, with blood and broken bone spewing out of cynical American mouths. What a nasty, predictable sight: US elites condemning "Russian aggression" from the heart of Murder Central, which gave Mikheil Saakashvili what he thought was imperial-backed carte blanche. McCain, of course, is feasting on as many bodies as his aging frame will allow, bellowing between bites about "international law." Obama, naturally, is going the pragmatic route, calling for UN intervention, a review of Russia's global status, and most telling of all, "deepening relations between Georgia and transatlantic institutions, including a Membership Action Plan for NATO."

 http://dennisperrin.blogspot.com/2008/08/another-chokehold-routine.html


The Georgian attack was planed and prepared for some time and followed a bigger strategic plan. Hitting the civilians in their sleep guaranteed panic and would obviously push them to look for refuge. The only place these Ossetians had to go was north to their compatriots. If the tunnel would have been closed, Georgia would have been stuck with these people after taking their land. That would have led to a messy guerrilla war. It was better, so the plan, to let them flee and therefore leave the outlet open. Indeed some 30,000 of 70,000 Ossetians fled through the tunnel.

Maybe the Georgian plan was to close the tunnel later, like after some 24 or 48 hours after the initial assault. That then was a gamble that Russia would not intervene or would need too long to reinforce. The gamble was lost.

 http://www.moonofalabama.org/2008/08/war-nerdism.html

imperial russia 13.Aug.2008 08:04

Den Mark, Vancouver

And in this analysis of the situation, it must not be ignored that russia is some innocent. russia is an exemplar of imperialism. russia has no right to be in South Ossetia, & ethnic russians within that tiny area had no original right to be there. They were the civilian part of imperial occupation in the incredible expansion of the ancient russian empire. But since ethnic russians are in fact there, they should be loyal to Georgia, whose territory that is, or they should go to russia.

The same dynamic exists in Estonia, a very very UNimperial country. Huge russia "conquered" it, if "conquered" can be applied to such bullying cowardice, & then russian civilians moved in to entrench the occupation. Now that Estonia is again free, ethnic russians there want special status, which they most definitely do not deserve. russians in Estonia should either learn Estonian & be Estonians, or go back to where their conquering ancestors came from.

This is the dynamic which is play in Georgia, which is also in play in the Balkans, where albanians spill over into neighboring countries & then demand to remain albanian in those places instead of being loyal to their new countries. Now albanians want chunks of Serbia, chunks of Macedonia, chunks of Montenegro. It's a sickening display of stealth conquest, conquest by reproduction, like rabbits. It's what drove germany to attempt expansion in two world wars, for "living room".

russians in Georgia should be Georgian citizens of russian ancestry, NOT russians living in "greater russia".

I despise imperialism, whether russian, u.s., israeli, chinese, or whichever brand.

another false flag alert? 13.Aug.2008 15:43

rationalist

My memory is that someone or other has been saying weekly for the past few years that an attack on Iran is imminent. About a week ago someone said definitely August 4. (Remember when Portland was about to get nuked?)

For your review:

 http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1010938.html: U.S. puts brakes on Israeli plan for attack on Iran nuclear facilities

Note that the Israelis need to ask for the permission of their imperial master.

Theresa, you're wrong, wrong, wrong!!!!!!!!!!! 13.Aug.2008 23:09

Caucasus Wild Plum

Neo-Cons = Mullahs. NeoCons = Russian Orthodox Czars.

I've been to Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Iran, Turkey, etc...All beautiful countries, all beautiful people. Russia is big brother in this region.

You have no idea what Moscow has done to these nations. Look what they did in Karabagh(1 million ehtnically cleansed, 30,000 dead), do I even have to tell you about Chechnya? Or what they did to the Afghanis??

Russia has turned into an imperial power just like the US. Georgia actually gets more support from EU members then Israel or the US.

You couldn't be more wrong about your analysis.

I would even go as far as to call it horse poo'

What happened to the cause of fighting imperial war mongers?

Its just sad that KBOO liseners will only get a very narrow "liberal"(although I have to question that if you're defending right wing nationalist freaks in Moscow who think they own the Caucasus and Iran like back in the Czar days) point of view on Iran and now the Caucasus.

Thank you Denmark 13.Aug.2008 23:23

RIZa

I wish you had a show on KBOO rather than our internationally challenged host.

Maybe Theresa should stick to reporting on more local issues.

One would have to study the history of land and population transfers that took place under the USSR. Stalin and gang certainly moved people around like they were cattle for decades. There are "Russian" onclaves in every freaking part of the old USSR.

Just talk to the Meskhetian Turks whose land in Georgia was occupied by Moscow in 1944, then the people, 300,000 strong were all moved across the Caspian Sea into Uzbekistan. Stalin figured they would either die of starvation on the way or get picked off by local tribes. After the fall of the USSR, the Meskhetians were forced to move back into southern Russia where they were brutally oppressed by the locals. Today, some of the survivors make Portland their home and grow and sell organic fruits and veggies. Maybe our graciously ignorant host could move her big ass and ask some questions of our local experts.

Theresa really has no clue about the history in that region. She's not even trying to understand. She thinks she's got it all figured out. I have two reactions when I listen to her talk about Iran or the region in general: a. I roll around the ground laughing at her ignorance, b. I get really upset knowing there are a lot of KBOO listeners taking her analysis as the truth.

for the record 14.Aug.2008 06:55

theresa mitchell

My program today will indeed be centering on the question of whether the neocons have made a deal, proposing that the Russians be allowed to intimidate Georgia (and/or Ukraine or as far as they want) in exchange for their effective non-resistance to a US/British/French air attack on Iran. Listen well, and decide whether this risk exists.

The assertion that 'illegitimate' populations are causing de facto imperialism in the former Soviet Bloc countries (by 'breeding like rabbits') is a genocidalist and inappropriate response to the tragedy of Stalinism. It reminds me of US racists who wish to expel Mexicans and South Americans, even though such immigrants have added $7 billion per year to Social Security, and enriched our human experience.

In short, I am happy to see that people are expressing themselves versus my analysis, and appalled at the casual racism and acceptance of US war policy. The US is in no way 'successful' in Iraq; success would be a withdrawal and payment of war reparations. Likewise I see nothing good in Georgia's actions nor in Russia's.

Ethnic cleansing of Georgians in Abkhazia 15.Aug.2008 02:04

read

"casual racism". ha, ha, ha!!!!
How about "liberal" racism. Casting off an entire group of people, because their corrupt leader makes a deal with our corrupt leader???

who sounds like a right wing yahoo here?? I'm really starting to question your "liberal" credentials. You, a white person is accusing me, a colored person of racism??? like the white republicans who cry of reverse racism??

also, no one says to ethnically cleansed the Russians out of Georgia.

You've got the victims mixed up the perpetrators.
Here's more proof of Russian aggression as recently as 1993:

from wikipedia:
Ethnic cleansing of Georgians in Abkhazia
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The 12th anniversary of ethnic cleansing in Abkhazia which was held in Tbilisi in 2005. One of the visitors of the gallery recognized her dead son on the photograph.
The 12th anniversary of ethnic cleansing in Abkhazia which was held in Tbilisi in 2005. One of the visitors of the gallery recognized her dead son on the photograph.

The Ethnic Cleansing of Georgians in Abkhazia,[1][2][3][4][5][6] also known as Genocide of Georgians in Abkhazia (according to the Georgian side and by a number of western scholars)[7][8][9][10] (Georgian: ქართველთა გენოციდი აფხაზეთში) or the Massacres of Georgians in Abkhazia[11][12] refers to ethnic cleansing,[13] massacres[14] and forced mass expulsion of thousands of ethnic Georgians living in Abkhazia (de jure Autonomous Republic of Georgia) during the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict of 1991-1993 and 1998. Between 10,000 to 30,000[15] Georgians were killed by the Abkhaz separatists, foreign mercenaries, and, allegedly, by Russian Federation forces.[16] Local Armenians, Greeks, Russians and moderate Abkhaz were also killed.[17]

The ethnic cleansing and massacres of Georgians has been officially recognized by the OSCE conventions in 1994, 1996 and again in 1997 during the Budapest, Lisbon and Istanbul summits and condemned the "perpetrators of war crimes committed during the conflict."[18] On May 15 2008, UN General Assembly adopted a resolution (GA/10708) which acknowledges the ethnic cleansing campaign which have been described by OSCE conventions, and strongly emphasizes the return of all Georgian Internally displaced persons (IDPs) back to Abkhazia, protection of their property rights and full restoration of the pre-war population.[19]

See also: Cases before the International Criminal Court#Georgia

The International Criminal Court is currently investigating allegations of genocide and crimes against humanity in Abkhazia.[20] The ICC was provided with the documents selected from the 300 volumes of evidence about the genocide of Georgians in Abkhazia. These materials were collected by the Georgian Prosecutors' Office beginning in 1993 and allegedly contain horrific accounts of atrocities committed by the Abkhaz fighters and mercenaries from Russia.[21] The reports included a detailed description of how the separatists played soccer with the heads of dead Georgians on the field after the executions in Gagra.[22]