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Perfectly Clear, Shinning Example of Climate Change Danger - Here and Now

In the past several years there have been studies showing plants flowering as much as a month early, butterflies migrating weeks later than usual, changes in the timing and location of bird migrations, tropical frog extinctions, bears in Spain no longer hibernating because there is enough food to eat all winter, tree lines moving up mountainsides and up in latitude, the line of permafrost moving north, and others. But none of these are close enough or important enough to us, personally, to make us (Americans) concerned. These are all out on the fringe of our world and simply do not affect us.
But here is an example of how we actually are being affected and will continue to be affected by the changing climate. In 1949 the southeast had a rare weather event. An out-of-season tornado developed in early February, much earlier than normal.

Well, this year southern Wisconsin had a rare weather event. An F-3 tornado developed January 7th for the first time - that early in the year - in the record books that go back over 120 years.(1)

Add to that the devastating outbreak of tornadoes in the first week of February this year in the Southeast where a super-cell developed an F-4 which rolled along the ground for 123 miles wreaking havoc to many towns along the way.(2) That was one of four tornado outbreaks in the Southeast in January and February. Jan. 10 saw 5 tornadoes, Feb. 17 saw 12 tornadoes, and Feb. 26 saw three tornadoes and a wind storm called a 'Derecho'.(3)

This is a pure, shinning example of climate change straight out of the text books. The rare, early, out of season formation of a tornado has moved to the North by roughly 500 miles......... and the rare, early, out of season weather event in the Southeast has now grown to an extremely strong system that produces 4 tornadoes and extreme devastation over a 123 mile long path killing 57, which is only one of four major tornadic events in the first two months of the year.

Since the January '99 outbreak of over 100 tornadoes in a four day period, the number of Feb. and Jan. twisters in the Southeast has been on a sharp increase with the past nine years tripling in average tornadic days. Here are the decadal statistics from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center Storm Data:

Southeastern Region February and January tornadoes -

1950 to 1959 - 1 days of tornadoes............ Total - 2 tornadoes
1960 to 1969 - 1 days of tornadoes............ Total - 2 tornadoes
1970 to 1979 - 2 days of tornadoes............ Total - 59 tornadoes
1980 to 1989 - 0 days of tornadoes............ Total - 0 tornadoes
1990 to 1999 - 3 days of tornadoes............ Total - 111 + tornadoes
2000 to 2008 - 6 days of tornadoes............ Total - 121 tornadoes (adjusted down from 189 preliminary reports)

That's Not All

If that is not alarming enough, a recent study shows that Lake Mead will be dry in twelve years. What will LA, Las Vegas and Phoenix do for drinking water? Also the drought in the Southeast has brought several towns to water rationing.

"According to researchers at the Aspen Global Change Institute, "it" is already happening. Its studies show that Aspen has an average overall warming of 3 degrees Fahrenheit in the past 30 years and if the trend continues, it will have a ski country climate similar to that of say Amarillo, Texas, by the end of the century."(4)

A just released 2008 report from the National Recourses Defense Council declares "The planetary warming...........is already underway, and it is greater in the American West than across most of the globe." It goes on to say "Across the country, four of the five top years for crop loss claims due to drought have been since 2000."(5)

These things are hitting us right now......the effects of climate disruption are in our face, and are proving to be sooner than expected. This is how climate change is manifesting itself with just one degree F of warming. Won't 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 degrees be wonderful for our grandchildren?

It's no longer the polar bears or the coral reefs or a village of Eskimos in the Arctic that can easily be ignored.

Don't think of 'Global Warming' as the worry - higher temperatures all year round and warm winters - that is not what global warming or climate change means weather-wise. That is an uninformed and quite naive thought.

It's what the warming is CAUSING that you should be concerned about - climate change, climate SHIFT, or climate DISRUPTION which is the result of warming the oceans by nearly one degree F. Doesn't sound like much, does it? It is quite literally astronomical.

The oceans are simply unfathomably immense! Their volume is actually incomprehensible, being 71% of the earth's surface (310 million cubic miles). If you could stack water 100 cubic miles long and 100 cubic miles wide, that column would reach 31,000 miles into outer space. That is truly an astronomical amount of water! No pun intended.

Just try to imagine the amount of heat it would take to raise the ocean's temperature just 1 degree. And essentially, that heat or energy remains in the water, and is the power that fuels weather events for a very long time.

12 of the 13 warmest years in many centuries are in the past 13 years. That is not 'climate variability'. Climate variability would be ONE of the past 13 years being among the 13 warmest years. This is a distinction that is little understood by the general public.

Climate Warming Momentum

A 100 year-long (at the very least) 'program' has been installed into the world's climate system (the oceans) that does not have a 'delete' button. If it were possible to stop emitting CO2 into the atmosphere today entirely, what has already been emitted will continue to raise the temperature of the planet for over 100 years because it remains in the air for over a century. That continued warming cannot be stopped! That is "in the works", as they say. This is another very grim fact that the public is generally not aware of.

The climate is a very sinister, very slow moving, and very dangerous entity. It is little understood by the lay people of the world, which makes it an even more dangerous thing because ordinary people can be easily confused by skeptics spewing out disinformation and lies.

Don't Be Afraid - Be Informed

Dr. James Hansen, the chief US climatologist, tells us in a recent paper entitled Rampant Negativity - No Reason to be so Glum, "There is still time to phase off fossil fuels, but it requires sensible policies in the public interest. This will not be easy: the special interests are pouring huge amounts of funding into disinformation campaigns."(6)

He gives us three important things to do to prevent us from "producing a very different planet from the one to which humanity is adapted".

1) Fight for a moratorium on new coal-fired power plants,
2) Oppose extraction of fossil fuels in public and environmentally sensitive regions,
3) Vote for politicians who take the 'Stewardship Pledge', -- do not vote for "well-oiled" politicians who accept funding from fossil fuel interests.

Slight movements of the climate have brought about enormous events such as drought and famine and pestilence. Now, mankind is able to cause these horrible situations with emissions of CO2 and whatever other natural factors may be at work. But with the will of the people and the right leaders, man can turn the escalating situation around, reduce heat trapping gases in the atmosphere, and preserve a comfortable climate for our grandchildren and theirs.

Don Beck

=======

References:

1) January 7, 2008 Tornadoes in Far Southeast Wisconsin
 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/?n=010708_tor\

2) A Tragic Event/A Record Event
 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/html/svr0208.htm

3) JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2008
 link to www.crh.noaa.gov

4) Global warming placing ski industry at risk
 http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_7627696 - [this link is not functioning, search the title in the Post's search engine to retrieve the article]

5)Hotter and Drier, March 2008
 http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/west/west.pdf

6) Rampant Negativity - No Reason to be so Glum, Mar. 2008
 http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/mailings/20080324_Rampant.pdf

11th hour 17.Apr.2008 09:40

one individual

There's a documentary recently released on video that is mind-blowing and just a tad depressing which does a great job of covering the global warming issue. It's the 11th hour, hosted by Leonardo DiCaprio (yes, the King of the World from Titanic). The video does a great job of laying the facts out there although it's solutions fall short of direct action.

Tornado Picture 17.Apr.2008 09:56

Tornado

Picture of one of the tornadoes that hit Dallas last week.

Thank you for featuring this and for the great pix! 17.Apr.2008 13:08

d. beck

I'll take that as a compliment, thank you very much!

The 'tornado climate shift' has not been picked up on by anyone yet, but James Hansen talks of climate shifts happening now. I gleaned it while reading coverage of the Tennessee outbreak in Feb. where it was mentioned that in '49 the area had an unusually early tornado. Checking NOAA's stats it jumped off the page.

Again, thanks to Portland IMCistas. From you people it is a greatly cherished compliment.

About 'what do we do' - don't despair 17.Apr.2008 13:30

d. beck

don't despair, pressure the politicians, it is in their hands.

Here is a portion of George Monbiot's speech at the Camp for Climate Change in London Aug. 18, '07. He has been studying and writing about global warming for over twenty years and is the Author of "Heat" which is about climate change and what needs to be done about it. He explains that because of recent scientific discoveries the book needs an extreme update. The speech is available free on-line (see below).

**************

I'm going to start with some bad news, and the bad news is this. Two
degrees is no longer the target. And the news is contained in a recent
paper written by James Hansen of NASA in the Philosophical Transactions
of the Royal Society(1). And what Hansen shows is that the profoundly
pessimistic assumptions in the latest IPCC Report are insufficiently
pessimistic.

And the reason for this is as follows. The IPCC assumes that the melting
of the ice sheets at the poles will take place in a gradual and linear fashion.
And Hansen's own work with the paleontological record shows that that is
an "entirely implausible" (to use his term) scenario.

the last time we had two degrees of warming in the Pliocene 55 million
years ago, the ice sheets at the poles did not melt - as the IPCC proposes -
over a millennia, but within the course of one century. And they did not cause
a maximum sea level rise within the course of one century - as predicted by
the IPCC - of 59 centimeters, but of 25 meters.

And Hansen proposes that through a series of factors - the collapse of the
buttresses that prevent the ice from sliding into the sea, the melt water
trickling down through crevasses and lubricating the base of the ice sheets,
and melt water on the surface of the ice sheets changing the albedo, making
the ice darker and therefore absorbing more heat, will lead to the sudden
and - certainly in geological terms - almost immediate collapse of both the
West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets within the course of one a century
at somewhat less than two degrees of warming.

Not only does this lead to the immediate affect of inundation of most of the
inhabited world - something like 60% of the people live within 50 Km of the
coast - it also means that you get a severe and sudden change in global
albedo change as white stuff at the poles gives way to dark stuff absorbing
much more solar radiation.

And he proposes that we can't go beyond 1.5 to 1.7 degrees of warming
above 1990 levels.

Combine this with what Richard was talking about and the stuff contained
in the IPCC's 4th Assessment Report which shows that in order to have a
maximum cap of two degrees of warming we need an 85% global reduction
even before you take population growth into account. So when that's added
to the fact that we're going to have something like a 50% increase in population,
you can see that that pushes way over 90% even before you take the issue
of global equity into account which means that the rich nationsmust cut the
emissions much further than anybody else, you realize that we are talking at
a minimum of a 100% cut, and it looks like it might have to go to 110% or 115%.

You laugh but we're talking about sequestration and we're talking about such
things for example, as growing bio fuel and burying it, simply for growing as
much bio mass as we can and sticking it back on the ground....something.....
anything to stave off this catastrophe.

We're not talking anymore about measures which require a little bit of tweaking
her and there, or a little bit of political tweaking here and there. We're talking
about measures which require global revolutionary change.

And that is a much tougher message than any that I've put out before, and this
is the first opportunity really that I've had since that paper came out, to express
the fact that what I thought were rather bold and revolutionary proposals in my
book "Heat", those proposals don't go nearly far enough. Those proposals
have been superseded and we need to start thinking on a different scale
altogether..........

And I'm afraid the second uncomfortable message I have to put out to you tonight
is that when it comes to dealing with a problem of this scale, small is no longer
beautiful. We have to start thinking on the biggest possible terms....

We have very very little time in which to act. We have very very little time in which
to bring about the largest economical and political transformation the world has
ever seen.

***************

The entire speech along with other speakers can be listened to free online. Mr.
Monbiot is the second speaker at 15 minutes in. Keep the volume low till he starts speaking because it was recorded from the audience and their applause is deafening.
 http://www.indymedia.org.uk/en/2007/08/378866.html

1) Dr. James Hansen's Paper, 7/15/07
 http://www.journals.royalsoc.ac.uk/content/l3h462k7p4068780/fulltext.html

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