The rabidly 'anti-communist' Major Reinado was duped by Australia into inciting rebellion against the democratically elected but uncooperative Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri. The now ousted Alkatiri refused the crippling debt slavery deal offered by Paul Wolfowitz of the World Bank for 'development' (exploitation) of Timor-Leste's precious off-shore oil resource. Time for plan "B"; enter Australia's John Howard.
Australia has recently signed a 50/50-development deal with Jose Ramos Horta the interim Prime Minister. The previous 90/10 deal, the Lion's share to Australia, was strenuously and vocally refused by Alkatiri who rightly and passionately defended his tiny, impoverished, nation's rights - Alkatiri had to go!
Enter, Major Alfredo Reinado, who had been trained in Australia by Special Forces for precisely such and event - how convenient! After Alkatiri had been removed from office it seems the popular but volatile Reinado had become a liability. Leopards and Australians do not change their spots, similar charges of illegal weapons appropriation (levelled at Alkatiri) were also levelled at Reinado who became a 'fugitive outlaw' after leisurely escaping confinement for a number of other charges to which murder has now been added - time's up for Alfredo! A job well done but in the sordid world of duplicitous oil politics the Major is wondering why the dagger in his back carries the "made in Australia" marking on its blade - should have known, but it's too late now.
Reinado now realises he has been used as a means to an end and very little hope remains. Little chance of repelling the occupiers exists as Reinado has been psychologically divided from his countrymen by the 'communist spectre' label attributed to other powerful factions on the island. But it was all part of the plan - a perfect African scenario, a gambit familiar to Alkatiri.
A highly unlikely scenario:
It is well known that China desires more influence in the region. China threatened to directly intervene in the region if Indonesia persisted in its seasonal killings of ethnic Chinese. This threat resulted in the cessation of hostilities against the ethnic Chinese - the criminal groups responsible were fronts for Indonesian military and police extortion rackets. The targets are now westerners and the petro-dollar rich Islamic extremists now fund these criminal groups, which have been labelled 'terrorist' by western powers, they have been in existence for decades but that's another story.
The unlikely but feasible scenario is requesting assistance from China to balance the threat from American Oil Companies working through their proxy the Australian government. This may not occur in the present situation but no one knows what the future may bring. Alkatiri is no fool and remains a popular Fretilin leader with strong ties to socialist democracies.