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Obrador calls for national convention on Sept 16, Mex independence, seating parallel gov't

"Although the recount was completed nearly three weeks ago, the TEPJF has refused to release the numbers..."!

KEEPING FINAL VOTE RESULTS OF AUG. 9 '9% CHERRPICKED RECOUNT' SECRET, says U.S. NGO., which their analysis shows Obrador with huge gains buried in report --- HUGE AND WILD SPLAY TOWARD OBRADOR even among the incomplete report of TRIFE of the numbers; from a mere 14.4% so far, that the U.S. NGO has seen, of the mere total 9% (Aug. 9 cherrypicked "recount"), or (14.4% x 9%) a wild splay to Obrador was seen in merely 1.296% of a potential full vote recount. Adding up the numbers for the 1.296%, the 1,706 ballot boxes, shows a loss of 1,362 votes for Calderón during "secret recount" THAT WOULD AFFECT GRAPHS BELOW. Obrador shows gain of 77 votes, in this 1.296% of the total available for the U.S. NGO to count publicly. "This is inexplicably one-sided, with Calderón losing votes but Obrador not losing any [during TRIFE recount, even by its own numbers]," said CEPR Co-Director Weisbrot. "It is also a significant percentage of votes in an election this close." The 1,362 votes lost by Calderón represent 0.54 percent of his votes [lost] in these ballot boxes. If so, extrapolating A CALDERON LOSS of .54% in just 1.296% of the accessible vote (the majority of the recount totals still being secret), means that he would loose about 1,362 on average 77 times [76.9 is number you get when you divide 100/1.296]. So in effect Calderon lost hypothetically 104,874; EXTRAPOLATING OBRADOR GAIN FROM TRIFE'S OWN LIMITED RELEASE DATA shows 77 vote gain 77 times, for 5,929 more votes. This would bring, even by TRIFE "standards," the "official margin" between Obrador and Calderon below 150,000 votes. NOTE: During "secret recount" ANOTHER annulment of 237,736 votes was conducted by TRIFE. By TRIFE's records, if extrapolated splay drops to around 150,000 separation, and TRIFE annuls another 237,736 during "the recount,"....
By the Numbers, as they came in--the last minute tally fraud TRIFE whitewashed
By the Numbers, as they came in--the last minute tally fraud TRIFE whitewashed
By Percentages, as they came in--the last minute tally fraud TRIFE whitewashed
By Percentages, as they came in--the last minute tally fraud TRIFE whitewashed
1.
more summary:

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...something is more than rotten in the state of Denmark. Something is rotten in the state of Mexico.

It has been noted in previous reporting that "A change of only three votes per all precincts [regardless of candidate] reverses fraudulent "official tally" making López Obrador officially the winner, so they refuse to count all the districts." The US NGO reports that in their 1.296% of the real total of votes, Obrador gains 77 even by TRIFE's numbers, while it is Calderon that loses drastically about 1,396 per that same. Thats well more than "a change of only three votes" I would conjecture.

Although the suprious "9% recount" was completed three weeks ago, the results remain secret. The TEPJF refused to release the numbers of proof that show how any candidates' vote totals were changed. The above information was pulled from rare instances of actual numbers mentioned in the TRIFE report, says the US NGO.

Without a full recount of the votes or the annulment of the election, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the candidate of the Party of the Democratic Revolution, will not recognize electoral results or government institutions. In fact, he has called for a national democratic convention on September 16, Mexico's independence day, to create a parallel government and new institutions, and has pledged not to let Mr. Calderon rule.

For its part, Mr. Calderon's party, the PAN, is threatening to isolate Mr. Lopez Obrador's party, the PRD, in congress, as it did last week when it helped prevent the PRD from leading the Chamber of Deputies this year. Some even suggest the PRD be stripped of its party status [despite really winning the Presidential election]. The problem is that these measures fuel the PRD's perceptions that the PAN is determined to block the PRD's way to government. These events are but a preview of an escalating confrontation.

Cardinal Norberto Rivera of Mexico City wanted Mexicans to dialogue seeking ways to end the political and ideological differences that are dividing the country....In a statement which he read at the conclusion of Sunday Mass, Cardinal Rivera emphasized, "It is essential to reconsider economic policies and models that only benefit the few and leave the vast majority of our people without hope." "It is no longer possible to tolerate corruption and the idolatrous ambition of illicitly attained riches," he stated. "Mexico must change,..."

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1.

Will Mexico end up the loser?

EDUARDO DEL BUEY AND OLGA ABIZAID

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

Mexico's Federal Electoral Tribunal has declared that Felipe Calderon, the candidate of the conservative National Action Party, is the country's president-elect. Since the decisions of the tribunal cannot be appealed, some see in this the end of a prolonged and convoluted electoral process and the beginning of a return to normalcy. Some assume that tensions will decrease and demonstrators will eventually get on with their lives.

There are signals, however, that this may not be the case.

If anything, one of the most visible outcomes of this electoral process has been a polarization that permeates large segments of Mexican society, something that the decision by the tribunal will not placate. On the contrary, what is becoming evident is that the two main political parties, forgetting that more than 60 per cent of the electorate did not vote for either, continue to play a game of chicken for every political position. The main loser will clearly be Mexico.

Neither party is leaving many options open to resolve the conflict.

The Globe and Mail

Without a full recount of the votes or the annulment of the election, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the candidate of the Party of the Democratic Revolution, will not recognize electoral results or government institutions. In fact, he has called for a national democratic convention on September 16, Mexico's independence day, to create a parallel government and new institutions, and has pledged not to let Mr. Calderon rule.

For its part, Mr. Calderon's party, the PAN, is threatening to isolate Mr. Lopez Obrador's party, the PRD, in congress, as it did last week when it helped prevent the PRD from leading the Chamber of Deputies this year. Some even suggest the PRD be stripped of its party status. The problem is that these measures fuel the PRD's perceptions that the PAN is determined to block the PRD's way to government.

These events are but a preview of an escalating confrontation. In the absence of dialogue and political will to resolve the conflict, the next government in Mexico will face enormous challenges.

What can be done to get out of this vicious circle? And how can Canada help in the process?

A first step is to recognize that things may not quickly go back to normal. Even as the number of demonstrators diminishes, divisions within Mexican society will take a long time to heal. And, just as it is not possible to constantly question institutions (as the PRD is doing) without expecting a response, the PAN cannot ignore the PRD if it is to govern effectively. Needless to say, a lot of effort will be required to restore confidence of Mexicans in political institutions.

It is urgent to identify the people who could potentially foster a favourable resolution of the conflict. Within Mexican society, intellectuals, opinion leaders and representatives from civil society organizations are calling for dialogue, respect of plurality and for the search for options to resolve the conflict without violence. Canada could, in the short-term, reach out to these personalities and engage them and other sectors of Mexican society -- including both parties to the conflict -- in a dialogue that would support those initiatives developed by Mexicans themselves, and that would enhance the next government's ability to govern effectively.

The first priority for the next government will be to tackle the two issues that are at the core of today's problems: real electoral reform, and reforms to reduce poverty and inequality. In the current climate, electoral reforms must come first, for without a clear definition of the rules of the game, there is no room for reconciliation and the establishment of national agreements.

Over the years, Canada and Mexico have collaborated closely on matters of governance. This collaboration will be crucial to strengthen our bilateral relationship. With respect to poverty reduction, Canada should develop innovative ways to assist Mexico through the Canada-Mexico Partnership.

Clearly, there is no room for Canadian intervention in what is purely a Mexican matter. But understanding both sides of the equation and encouraging an ongoing dialogue with key players from all sides of the debate can help Canada play a constructive role in the management of its important relationship with Mexico.

Eduardo del Buey is executive director of the Canadian Foundation for the Americas; Olga Abizaid is senior policy analyst.

 link to www.theglobeandmail.com

2.

September 6,2006

Mexico's Cardinal calls for dialogue in election disputes

Mexico City (CNA) - Cardinal Norberto Rivera of Mexico City wanted Mexicans to dialogue seeking ways to end the political and ideological differences that are dividing the country.

He asked them not allow them to morph into resentment and hatred, "which could spark a destructive spiral of violence."

"We must cease doing wrong and begin to do good," the cardinal said. "It is time to build bridges of dialogue and understanding; it is time to remove the blinder that keeps us from seeing evil and injustice."

In a statement which he read at the conclusion of Sunday Mass, Cardinal Rivera emphasized, "It is essential to reconsider economic policies and models that only benefit the few and leave the vast majority of our people without hope."

"It is no longer possible to tolerate corruption and the idolatrous ambition of illicitly attained riches," he stated. "Mexico must change, but it should avoid the destructive temptation of violence, which creates more pain and suffering."

 http://www.theindiancatholic.com/newsread.asp?nid=3290

3.

Mexico Election: CEPR adds up vote data, finds reduction for Calderón Written by The Center for Economic and Policy Research
Monday, 04 September 2006
Source: The Center for Economic and Policy Research

Press Release from CEPR:

Result Could Explain Electoral Authorities' Reluctance to Release Recount Data
For Immediate Release: September 2, 2006

Contact: Mark Weisbrot, 202-746-7264
Dan Beeton, 202-293-5380 x 104; 202-256-6116 (cell)

WASHINGTON - The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) has found a significant loss of votes for PAN presidential candidate Felipe Calderón in a sample of recounted ballots.

Adding up the numbers for 1,706 ballot boxes (casillas) shows a loss of 1,362 votes for Felipe Calderón. Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the PBT shows a gain of 77 votes.

"This is inexplicably one-sided, with Calderón losing votes but López Obrador not losing any," said CEPR Co-Director Mark Weisbrot. "It is also a significant percentage of votes in an election this close."

The 1,362 votes lost by Calderón represent 0.54 percent of his votes in these ballot boxes.

The result for the whole group of recounted ballot boxes would likely show a similar percentage, since the above ballot box totals were [they claimed] chosen randomly from the documents posted on the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary (TEPJF) web site. The ballot box totals compiled by CEPR comprise [merely a smaller] 14.4 percent of the [total mere 9%] 11,839 ballot boxes that were recounted.

It has been noted in previous reporting that "A change of only three votes per all precincts reverses fraudulent "official tally" making López Obrador officially the winner, so they refuse to count all the districts."

INSET:

Mex Vote Fraud Update: "Double Cherrypicked" 9% Recount for Aug 9; Can Explode to Violence
author: Al Giorando, extended comment
After U.S. media ignored the largest protest in Mexican history against vote fraud in Mexico City (at least over 1.2 million on July 31), Mexico's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (aka "Trife") invented a "decision" adding more uncertainty instead of finality to any "final vote count". It shows Trife illegitimate, corrupt, and partisan as well. A 9% cherrypicked recount begins August 9, lasting 1 week. The 9% cherrypick is to occur as well only in half the orchard--with no one allowed to peek into the rest The 9% is coming from only 150 of a total of 300 electoral districts, instead of a random sample of all. There's nothing statistical about this, it's just a "double cherrypick". Results? On the one hand, it could result in historic reversal of "official tallies" (despite millions of known defrauded voter, Trife is silent the current "official tallies" depending on this fraud, so far) which invented a razor-thin advantage to Bush Republican Linked National Action Party (PAN) candidate Calderón, who IFE said "won by .58%" despite huge vote fraud. Calderon's fraudulent "advantage", statistically is only 1-2 votes per smaller 130,000 electoral precincts. A change of only three votes per all precincts reverses fraudulent "official tally" making López Obrador officially the winner, so they refuse to count all the districts. However, if the margins in the double cherrypick reach that amount of switching in merely 9% it provides evidence for a full recount.
 http://portland.indymedia.org/en/2006/08/343941.shtml

The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) has been searching through many thousands of pages in 375 documents [www.trife.org.mx (see "Ăltimas sentencias dictadas")] released over the past week by the TEPJF, for numbers on the recount conducted by the TEPJF from August 9 to August 13. The process is laborious but most of the results appear to be buried in these documents.

In other words, the full recount results might be available [i.e., remember they are only reporting this wild splay from merely 14.4% of a mere 9% already cherrypicked "recount" or (14.4% x 9%) 1.296% of the full vote-- showing this huge splay already] but it takes several days of research to find and compile the numbers for [the larger] 11,839 ballot boxes scattered among many thousands of pages of documents.

Although the recount was completed nearly three weeks ago, the TEPJF has refused to release the numbers showing how the candidates' vote totals were changed by the recount. This contrasts sharply to the procedure followed for the preliminary and second vote tallies in July, when the results were made public immediately.

"This certainly casts doubt on the electoral authorities' decision to reject a full recount," said Weisbrot. "And it makes the TEPJF's decision not to release the recounted vote totals look even worse."*

Click here for CEPR's most recent paper examining the "adding up" errors in the vote count.

*Last Monday the TEPJF released the results of its annulment of 237,736 votes; many press accounts mistakenly reported these numbers as the results of the recount, which they were not. The ballot boxes where votes were annulled are not the same as those which were recounted. Click here to see this link

The Center for Economic and Policy Research is an independent, nonpartisan think tank that was established to promote democratic debate on the most important economic and social issues that affect people's lives. CEPR's Advisory Board of Economists includes Nobel Laureate economists Robert Solow and Joseph Stiglitz; Richard Freeman, Professor of Economics at Harvard University; and Eileen Appelbaum, Professor and Director of the Center for Women and Work at Rutgers University.

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Center for Economic and Policy Research, 1611 Connecticut Ave, NW, Suite 400, Washington, DC 20009
Phone: (202) 293-5380, Fax: (202) 588-1356, Home: www.cepr.net

 http://upsidedownworld.org/main/content/view/415/1/

more Mexican vote fraud reportage:
 http://portland.indymedia.org/en/topic/electionfraud/

CORRECTION 07.Sep.2006 03:54

poster

above it said:

It has been noted in previous reporting that "A change of only three votes per all precincts [regardless of candidate] reverses fraudulent "official tally" making López Obrador officially the winner, so they refuse to count all the districts." Actually that is a statistic for only the required levels of the 9% cherrypick "recount"-- (a "recount," of 9%?!) which would have a higher threshold for such change.

However, if all votes were to be counted, of course the aggregate requirement for the bar of "official change" is a much lower threshold in the larger sample.

That requires only 1-2 vote change all districts.

And they can even demonstrate that level of change in the Aug. 9th 9% cherrypicked count!

77 + 1362 = 1439 changes noted by the US NGO total.

And with 1439 total vote changes this is across 1706 ballot boxes they were able to dig out of the obfuscating TRIFE report, so that is indeed [1706/1439 =] .8634 vote change per 1 ballot box in the 1.296% of the total vote ballot boxes sample; rounding up, 1 on average vote change per precinct is indeed likely found. This is well enough to change the outcome of the election under the conditions of full actual recount--even when drawn only from the mere 1.296% of the full vote available to the US NGO looking into it. Though avoid forgetting these little tidbits:

Plus, let's add in the 230,000+ removed by TRIFE from even this 9% "secret recount" where they refuse to tell the world the actual numbers of the changes.

Plus, let's add in the ballot boxes of pro-Obrador districts that were found in the public dumps, completely uncounted still.

Plus, let's add in the three million that was never counted at all...

Plus, let's count the "digital wipe" mentioned in regional digital tally changes, ordered by corrupt offficials in IFE.

Plus, let's add the strange computer blackouts that led to different reversed numbers when the lights and computers came back on, according to one befudded IFE employee.

Plus, let's add that the inlaws of Calderon had some of the contracts for supplying the vote counting software...