Mex Vote Fraud Update: "Double Cherrypicked" 9% Recount for Aug 9; Can Explode to Violence
After U.S. media ignored the largest protest in Mexican history against vote fraud in Mexico City (at least over 1.2 million on July 31), Mexico's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (aka "Trife") invented a "decision" adding more uncertainty instead of finality to any "final vote count". It shows Trife illegitimate, corrupt, and partisan as well. A 9% cherrypicked recount begins August 9, lasting 1 week. The 9% cherrypick is to occur as well only in half the orchard--with no one allowed to peek into the rest The 9% is coming from only 150 of a total of 300 electoral districts, instead of a random sample of all. There's nothing statistical about this, it's just a "double cherrypick". Results? On the one hand, it could result in historic reversal of "official tallies" (despite millions of known defrauded voter, Trife is silent the current "official tallies" depending on this fraud, so far) which invented a razor-thin advantage to Bush Republican Linked National Action Party (PAN) candidate Calderón, who IFE said "won by .58%" despite huge vote fraud. Calderon's fraudulent "advantage", statistically is only 1-2 votes per smaller 130,000 electoral precincts. A change of only three votes per all precincts reverses fraudulent "official tally" making López Obrador officially the winner, so they refuse to count all the districts. However, if the margins in the double cherrypick reach that amount of switching in merely 9% it provides evidence for a full recount.
Plus, one television station in Oaxaca is already occupied and broadcasting. No police stopped them. No army. Nothing. They are on the people's side by their inactions in this vote fraud context. Mexico could explode into armed revolution--with a citizen's army on the people's side against a continental wide corporatist police state "New American Union"/New World Order. The Bush minions like Calderon, fraudulently set up for the Presidency of Mexico, could be the first to go...
THE DOUBLE CHERRYPICKED "PARTIAL RECOUNT":
The court strangely rejected full recount appeals by Obrador, to limit the recount to a bizarre number of cherrypicked 11,839 precints, or 9% of ballots cast.
However, attorneys for López Obrador supplied documentation of electoral fraud in 72,000 of 130,000 precincts. Where this strangely exact 11,839 precint decision comes from can only be some sort of pre-rig continuing.
However, even the pre-rig could backfire.
To reverse a national fictive tally, in these 11,839 or 9% of the ballots, it requres now 21 votes per precinct toward López Obrador required.
So it seems that the cherrypicked recount is totally stacked by about 10 times--stacked 10 times AGAINST statisically finding the average of 1-2 per district that would certainly turn the whole currently fraudulent "official tally" to Obrador. Still, any change will force awareness of the hidden systemic vote fraud, making totals even less believable regardless.
Next, another cherrypicked stacking: choosing only 1/7 of Obrador's documented fraudulent district areas, thus making cutting down the odds by a about a factor of 7 as well.
So, if the cherrypicked total is stacked by a factor of 10 against Obrador and stacked once more by a factor of 7 against Obrador, then the odds of finding the required 21 votes per district (which would be easy to find if all districts done) in these double cherrypicked areas is about 70:1 versus finding it for the full recount of all districts.
Why is the Trife doing this? Do they think this is going to really clear up anything? Taking this all in, this can only be a thin door Trife is "praying" will be kept shut and keep the artificial "official totals" from reversing. Their bizarre decision means they expects or knows massive vote fraud has occurred throughout Mexico to conduct something so baldly bizarre and unstatistical and pass it off as a 'recount.' It appears it is closer to a rigged long shot betting parlor.
A messy outcome, certainly Trife realizes, will be if the vote fraud is more extreme than the "national average" of 1-2 per precinct. Nationally, if a national count is conducted instead of the double cherrypicked one, it is enough to turn the total vote toward Obrador, and make lie of the performace of the "official tally" so far.
Of course, certain Trife realizes, even if the cherrypicked 1/7 sample of Obrador's requested precincts shows a shift averaging this 1-2 or even two to three votes toward López Obrador (which would be much more than enough to change the whole national offical tally, if the full recount is done), national clamor for the full recount will boil over into a national rebellion regardless. Trife's actions seem more like a large national game of "chicken" in this regard. They keep drawing lines in the sand, and backtracking, backtracking, backtracking, until they are perhaps going to be running away from armed citizens shortly....
The Trife has basically set up a revolution: if the one-tenth of one-seventh Trife sample of the "partial recount" shows this small move toward Obrador that would in a national context be enough for a removal of the "official tally", there will be revolution and call for full recount regardless.
If it shows "not enough" (as they sure as to God expected in Trife) it will cause revolution anyway because of the cherrypicking and the "decision" is hardly going to resolve anything.
The fact that all police and security seem to be "missing"--means that they are on the people's/Obrador's side. All police stopped protecting a television station on Oaxaca allowing it to be seized by women bearing pots and pans. The TV station has been broadcasting hidden footage of violent police crackdown of the teachers union in Oaxaca months before. Surely they will take to their seized airwaves to talk about vote fraud shortly, after Aug 9.
Anything could happen after Aug 9.
full articles for more:
Mexico's Electoral Tribunal Orders Partial Recount to Begin on Wednesday
By Al Giordano,
Posted on Sat Aug 5th, 2006 at 02:22:25 PM EST
In a Solomonic decision, the seven justices of Mexico's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (known as the Trife) cut the baby of democracy in half.
In doing so, they added more uncertainty and drama to an already tense crisis. The court's decision to allow a recount in only half of Mexico's 300 electoral districts could still result in an historic reversal of official tallies that gave a razor-thin advantage to National Action Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderón (who the Federal Elections Commission, know as IFE, claims won by .58 percent or 240,000 votes), making former Mexico City governor Andrés Manuel López Obrador, of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) the comeback kid of this year's cloudy election process.
Alternately, it could narrow the margin between the two candidates to an extent that makes evident the need for a full recount.
The judges rejected appeals for a full recount in the country's 130,000 precincts (where the official tally gives Calderón the advantage by less than two votes per precinct), instead opting to limit the recount to 11,839, about nine percent of the ballots cast. Attorneys for López Obrador supplied documentation of electoral fraud in 72,000 of the country's 130,000 precincts. In a recount of that many districts, a change of only three votes per precinct would likely reverse the official tally making López Obrador the winner. However, the court has opted for a recount in only 11,839. That means that to reverse the national tally, a difference of 21 votes per precinct toward López Obrador would be required.
The messiest scenario will come if this sample of 11,000 precincts shows a shift averaging more than two or three votes per precinct toward López Obrador. If so, the national clamor for a full recount will boil over into a national rebellion. The court will have to either reconsider the matter of a full or larger recount or the post-electoral conflict will move from the courts to the streets and highways of Mexico.
The partial recount ordered by the court will begin Wednesday, August 9, and last for one week (in which regional judges will count ballots in public sessions, including over next weekend) and the results must be submitted by August 16. The clock will then be ticking with just 15 days left until the court's August 31 deadline to conduct recounts and its September 6 deadline to declare a presidential victor or, alternately, annul the election, bringing forward an even muddier scenario in which the federal Congress will have to choose an interim president to attempt to govern a divided populace.
López Obrador, whose supporters have camped out blockading Paseo de la Reforma and other important streets in the center of Mexico City for the past week, has called his people to the Zocalo - the gigantic "town square" of the nation - at 7 p.m. tonight to offer his response to the tribunal's decision.
There, history may find the baby of democracy is not willing to be cut in half [or one-seventh] and is ready to fight like never before to survive.
Scenes from the Oaxaca Rebellion
After Seizing the State TV Station, the Movement Remains Firm and Peaceful as Government Steps Up Pressure and Provocations
By John Gibler
link to www.zmag.org
Oaxaca's State TV Station Under Popular Control
Women March to the Zocalo Against Governor and Take Over Channel 9 Studios
By Nancy Davies
Commentary from Oaxaca
They are calling for the removal from office of Governor Ulises Ruiz Ortiz ("URO").
UPDATE, WEDNESDAY MORNING, August 2: This morning, with the TV station still occupied, Public Television Channel 9 started to show all the videos of the June 14, 2006 attack on the teachers strike in Oaxaca--with armed police, interviews with the teachers in the hospital, the marches, the rallies, the meetings, etc. All this material was taped as it happened by the corporate media, but never shown on any station. It's fantastic to watch it now for the first time.
en español... La estación de TV estatal de Oaxaca, bajo el control popular
in italiano... La TV di Stato di Oaxaca sotto il controllo popolare
August 2, 2006
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