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The Iranian Security Dilemma

Preventing a potential nuclar power like Iran is conceivable if Israel simultaneously makes concessions.
THE IRANIAN SECURITY DILEMMA AND US-EUROPEAN WARMONGERING

The Middle East- and Energy Expert Mohssen Massarrat on the Iranian Security Dilemma and European Diplomacy serving American War Delusions

[This interview published in: Freitag 03, 1/20/2006 is translated from the German on the World Wide Web,  http://www.freitag.de/2006/03/06030301.php.]


FREITAG: The EU-3 declared the nuclear negotiations with Teheran failed. Did they have reason for that?

MOHSSEN MASSARRAT: Yes, because they failed themselves. For two years the EU-3 did not offer any compromise to deal with the opposing side and take seriously Iran's demands for security guarantees. The negotiations had to fail some time or other since the EU-3 remained with their hard, uncompromising and politically motivated positions that are not supported by international law. Needless to say, they did in fact fail.

Q: Was it wise for the EU to let two states, France and Great Britain, negotiate that are themselves nuclear powers?

MASSARRAT: The European side should have honestly oriented itself in disarmament and détente both in the Middle East and Europe. That would have meant saying: If Iran foregoes uranium enrichment and every possibility of developing nuclear weapons, then Europe would take its own steps of disarmament and no longer ignore the Israeli potentials. Europe had the historic chance of kicking off a Euro-Asian disarmament process that would have been a good idea because it would have served a multilateral pluralist world. The strategic arsenals of European powers are trash because they don't have any military function any more.

Q: As honorable as this view may be, isn't it completely unrealistic?

MASSARRAT: whatever involves disarmament always seems unrealistic. However some possibilities are feasible. Preventing a potential nuclear power like Iran is conceivable if Israel simultaneously makes concessions. The EU could advance this if Israel would firstly grant security guarantees and secondly if Europe would put its own nuclear weapons up for discussion. In this way, the beginning of disarmament would be realistic.

Q: Kofi Annan speaks very moderately and seeks continued negotiations with Teheran. Should France, Germany and Great Britain sit on the other side of the table?

MASSARRAT: negotiations will only succeed if the EU gradually understands that its policy could foster intimidating American gestures threatening Iran with sanctions and even war. If the Europeans continue with their past policy, Kofi Annan's efforts will at best postpone an intensification of the conflict without bringing about a solution.

Q: Could the UN Security Council automatically trigger an escalation dynamic leading to a military strike?

MASSARRAT: that is even planned. For one and a half years, the American tactic has been to bring the potential adversary to the diplomatic dance floor by possible military strikes and make no concessions to Teheran so all diplomacy was condemned to fail. The World public should be convinced that the West had done everything and that the West always governs reasonably whole Iran breaks international law and seeks nuclear weapons. In my opinion, the Americans masterfully orchestrate this mood.

Q: Were Europeans useful idiots in this dangerous game?

MASSARRAT: Yes, useful idiots. They feel they are real actors. That is what is sad when one hears the aggressive rhetoric of figures like Steinmeyer and Straw. It is really a tragedy that without noticing the EU has fallen to be an instrument of the Americans.

Q: Is that also a reason why the EU has now hastily resolved to bring the Iran question before the UN Security Council and announce this by its foreign ambassador Solana?

MASSARRAT: For me there are two explanations. Either the EU wants to give Am3ericans control although it is clear the Americans have no concepts in the Middle East and Iraq question. Why should a delaying tactic be followed toward Teheran without advancing the negotiations at all? The other explanation assumes that the EU already agreed internally to sanctions and as a consequence to a war of Americans against Iran. In this case, the foreign ministers of Great Britain, France and Germany would be potential allies practicing a kind of psychological war preparation with their aggressive polemics. All this reminds me of the situation before the 1999 Kosovo war. Public opinion should be manipulated so that a military action against Iran seems unavoidable.

Q: Could not Teheran use the Security Council to take the offensive diplomatically?

MASSARRAT: this question could certainly be raised. I cannot understand why the Iran leadership remains defensive without setting the decisive problem - its own security dilemma and the Israeli nuclear potential - on the agenda. Instead what is said indirectly through a propaganda offensive becomes the theme - like questioning the holocaust and an anti-Israeli polemic. This process lacks all political reason and manipulates the world public to acquiesce to US needs. Why does the government in Teheran avoid making a nexus between peaceful nuclear energy and its own security risks? People have always declared that technological nuclear capabilities are largely appropriated within the possibilities granted by the nuclear test ban treaty. This position loses all meaning when the world public believes Teheran wants nuclear weapons. If the Iranian leadership would substantiate its own security situation, there could be a chance of inducing Americans and Europeans to finally speak about the structures of conflict existing in the Middle East.

If Iran resumes its nuclear research, that would not violate the nuclear test ban treaty. One should only ask why was this step taken now? Because the president is under internal pressure - the pressure of over 4000 scientists and engineers working in nuclear research and zealous about keeping their jobs. Ahmadinejad is also under the pressure of his followers. He told them they would not suffer discrimination and be told to renounce on uranium enrichment since they a right to that. The Iranian leadership is playing a power game to become a regional nuclear power. Deeds must follow words. This is logical from Ahmadinejad's power perspective.

Q: This logic was true for president Khatami and now for president Ahmadinejad. Only Ahmadinejad now sees himself forced to act since Europeans offered nothing to Iranians that does justice to their security interests.

Q: Would Moscow's offer to process Iranian fuel rods in Russia be a way out?

MASSARRAT: I regard that as impossible. If Iranians remain faithful to themselves and their arguments (there is also a competition in parliament and between the parliament and the government), they have a right to be independent in the long-term from every state regarding the delivery of nuclear fuel rods. If one wants to overcome dependence on one's own fossil resources, replacing these resources with dependence on other states makes no sense. The Russian blackmailing of the Ukraine actually confirms Iran's approach. Russia also allows itself to be instrumentalized by Bush. Bush was the first to congratulate Putin when the proposal of uranium enrichment in Russia was on the table because it was very clear that Teheran would refuse. Russia could declare at the end that it would turn to the confrontational line of the Americans if nothing were agreed. From my view, this was part of US war preparation.


Mohssen Massarrat, born in Iran, is a professor of political science at the University of Osnabruck. Active for years in the peace movement, he was a co-founder of the "Coalition for Life and Peace." Mohssen Massarrat has written many books on international economic relations, the Middle East and peace and conflict research.

homepage: homepage: http://www.mbtranslations.com
address: address: http://www.zmag.org


sigu 25.Jan.2006 11:00

Shanah

There is no Iranian Security Dilemma. Iran is their own country, and they can do what they want. They say they are not even seeking nuclear weapons, and international agencies have no evidence that they are. Of course, with the US threatening them with nuclear war, they have every reason to try and develop nuclear weapons. That is what I would o if the US was threatening my country.

Iran: U.S. GO or NO SHOW? 25.Jan.2006 14:04

g.d. dem

Governments of other counties listen to NPR news, which is carried around the world by U.S. Armed Forces Radio and Television Service (AFRTS). For this reason, the U.S. government uses NPR something like the way most countries use their government broadcasting services -- to make quasi-official statements intended for foreign consumption.

Iran undoubtedly was listening to NPR yesterday, when Jon Wolfsthal, (a fellow with the CSIS International Security Program), gave an analysis of the current run-up to an air war (complete with nukes) on Iran. Wolfsthal, speaking in an authoritative tone, basically contradicted the neo-con party line that the U.S. - in conjunction with the U.K and Israel - is about to open an air attack on Iran.

But we know that BushCo is pushing an attack on Iran big time -- for the reason that the Bush administration has painted itself into a corner and also because they see Iran as the next pile of money. All the mechanisms that worked to create the invasion and occupation of Iraq remain in place to spread the debacle to include Iran. Check it out --

<Interview With Michel Chossudovsky>

 http://portland.indymedia.org/en/2006/01/332497.shtml

_______________________

But will it happen? Will the U.S. be GO or will the U.S. -- recognizing the insanity of an attack on Iran -- be NO SHOW? It looks like the moment of truth is at hand for the Cheney/PNAC cabal that rode roughshod over the CIA and Pentagon establishments to force the Iraq invasion and occupation despite intelligence to the contrary. Either the neo-con cabal will be able to implement the PNAC program to move from Iraq to Iran -- or the Cheney cabal will prove to be a paper tiger from now on.

Lest my thinking be misunderstood, I want to specify that NOTHING else changes -- just that war on Iran is called off, for the time being. Why? Because Iran is able to shut down the Persian Golf and throw the global economy into a tail-spin. And because the U.S. military is exhausted, plus the U.S. is too unstable, politically and economically, to undertake the measures necessary to expansion of the "war on terror" beyond the Iraq occupation.

The establishment wants to buy time -- time to consolidate controls over the U.S. such as election rigging and eavesdropping -- and to beef up the exhausted U.S. military with a draft. It's enough at present for the U.S. to continue the occupation of Iraq -- and that IS what the anti-PNAC forces are supporting. They are opposed even to discussion of a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq -- from their point of view the U.S. bases planned for Iraq are more necessary than ever and pulling back to Saudi Arabia is out of the question because such a retreat would destabilize the Saudi regime.

You may think that a little commentary on NPR is no big deal. After all, what is the "CSIS International Security Program"? The CSIS is the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The head of CSIS is one of the greatest congressional hawks of all time -- former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn, a conservative Democrat who has been one of the most influential politicians in defense appropriations and "intelligence" in all of U.S. history.

Who is Sam Nunn? Nunn served for twenty-four years as a United States Senator from Georgia (1972-1996) as a member of the Democratic Party. . . . During his tenure in the U.S. Senate, Senator Nunn served as chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services and the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. He also served on the Intelligence and Small Business Committees. His legislative achievements include the landmark Department of Defense Reorganization Act, drafted with the late Senator Barry Goldwater, and the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, which provides assistance to Russia and the former Soviet republics for securing and destroying their excess nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. Although the committee which awards the Nobel Peace Prize does not reveal official nominees, both Nunn and Lugar have been mentioned several times as candidates for the award in the media circle. . . . Nunn was a moderately conservative Democrat who often broke with his party on a host of social and economic issues. Nunn is also a member of the board of directors of multiple corporations, including ChevronTexaco, General Electric, and The Coca-Cola Company."

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Nunn

Also a director of the CSIS is our old friend Henry A. Kissinger. Other directors --

* Reginald K. Brack -- Former Chairman & CEO, Time, Incorporated
* Zbigniew Brzezinski
* Ray L. Hunt -- Chairman & CEO, Hunt Consolidated, Inc.
* E. Neville Isdell -- Chairman & CEO, The Coca-Cola Company
* E. Stanley O'Neal -- Chairman of the Board, CEO, & President, Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
* Felix G. Rohatyn -- President, Rohatyn Associates, LLC
* Charles A. Sanders -- Former Chairman & CEO, Glaxo Inc.
* James R. Schlesinger -- Senior Advisor, Lehman Brothers, Inc.
* William A. Schreyer -- Chairman Emeritus, Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
* Rex Tillerson -- President, Exxon Mobil

Get the picture? And if you still have doubts, another member of the Board represents the Bush/Bin Laden family Carlyle Group --

* David Rubenstein -- Managing Director, The Carlyle Group
________________

'W' is a member of an extremely rich and powerful family -- but he himself has never been a mover and shaker. Probably 'W' is even a "nice guy" -- or sees himself as a "nice guy" -- but he doesn't initiate anything and he has no grand plan of any kind. He follows his nose. What is shoved in front of him, he signs. What is on the prompter, he reads. Cheney stepped into the breach and acted in place of the President to get the Iraq thing going -- but now there are "powers that be" shutting Cheney out of the loop. That's easy to accomplish because Cheney is in it for the money, so he can be counted on to "go along to get along".

The key figure is Secretary of State Donald Rumsfield. As soon as the election was out of the way in 2004, hard-core neo-cons began a campaign to dump Rummy.

<A growing chorus of neo-conservative commentators want Rumsfield sacked and replaced . . . The loudest voice to date has been William Kristol, the neoconservative editor of The Weekly Standard magazine and Chairman of the influential Project for the New American Century. The latter body, the PNAC, has been accused of being a true conspiracy behind the policies of the Bush administration.

<"What remains to be done is to announce new leadership for the department of defence," Kristol wrote in his Thanksgiving message for the Weekly Standard. "This, surely, would be an important opportunity for a strong, Bush-doctrine-supporting outsider, someone who of course would be a team player, but someone who could also work with the military and broaden support for the president's policy." >

 http://cernigsnewshog.blogspot.com/2004/11/neocons-want-rumsfield-sacked.html

But Rumsfield remains. Why? Because powers-that-be know they can count on him -- to order open and all-out war against Iran, or NOT!

Rumsfield isn't taking orders from Cheney anymore -- he used to be Cheney's boss and he never liked being seen as Cheney's flunky. Rumsfield never did take his orders from 'W', who is known for saying and doing nothing whenever decisive action is called for. So what's left is Rummy and the Joint Chiefs.

Of course, there is already a war on-going against Iran, but it is a limited war. And, most importantly, that war hasn't gone well.

A year ago, Scott Ritter said that Bush had received and signed off on orders for all-out war on Iran planned for June 2005.The excuse for that war would be (or is) the destruction of Iran's alleged program to develop nuclear weapons. But, as Ritter noted, neo-cons in the administration also expected that the attack would set in motion a chain of events leading to regime change in the oil-rich nation of 70 million -- a possibility that Ritter regarded (even a year ago) with the greatest skepticism.

As detailed by Ritter, the U.S. has been making war on Iran with over-flights and with CIA-backed terrorist actions by the Mujahadeen el-Khalq, or MEK, an Iranian opposition group, once run by Saddam Hussein's dreaded intelligence services, but now working exclusively for the CIA's Directorate of Operations.

(Ritter: "It is bitter irony that the CIA is using a group still labelled as a terrorist organisation, a group trained in the art of explosive assassination by the same intelligence units of the former regime of Saddam Hussein, who are slaughtering American soldiers in Iraq today, to carry out remote bombings in Iran of the sort that the Bush administration condemns on a daily basis inside Iraq.")

The CIA-backed campaign of MEK terror bombings in Iran are not the only actions ongoing against Iran. As the Pentagon prepares to withdraw troops from Uzbekistan at the request of the Uzbek government, attempts by the U.S. to create a U.S. base in neighbouring Azerbaijan continue -- with uncertain prospects, in part because of strong ethnic links between the Azeri of northern Iran with the Azeri in Azerbaijan.

(Ritter: "Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld's interest in Azerbaijan may have escaped the blinkered Western media, but Russia and the Caucasus nations understand only too well that the die has been cast regarding Azerbaijan's role in the upcoming war with Iran. . . . CIA paramilitary operatives and US Special Operations units . . . are training with Azerbaijan forces to form special units capable of operating inside Iran for the purpose of intelligence gathering, direct action, and mobilizing indigenous opposition to the Mullahs in Tehran.")

So, with all that preparation in the works, why call it off? Because things have not gone according to the PNAC plan! For example, Ritter points out that the bottom line is the necessity for US Marines to secure (occupy) the Iranian side of the Straits of Hormuz. But the Marines for this are still tied down in Iraq! And there are no reserves available to take over the areas held by Marines in Iraq.

See article on Azerbaijan at EurasiaNet --

 http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav091205ru.shtml

Ritter's remarks were originally published by Aljazeera, and are also available on-line at SacramentoForDemocracy --

 http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/7896BBD4-28AB-48BA-A949-
2096A02F864D.htm

sacramentofordemocracy.org/?q=node/view/3060

You can listen to the NPR story ("Iran: Not Another Iraq") on-line --

 http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5170710

There's also a January 12 piece by Wolfsthal at the CSIS website --

 http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_progj/task,view/id,476/
_______________

It's also significant that late last year (November 30), Israel came out strong in originating the suggestion that war with Iran was inevitable by April.

<Israel "can't accept a situation where Iran has nuclear arms" and "is making all the necessary preparations to handle a situation like this," Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said Thursday.

<Iran's enemies have "the capability" to use military force to disrupt Iran's bid for nuclear arms, he said at the annual Editor's Committee gathering in Tel Aviv, adding that "before exercising it, every attempt should be made to pressure Iran into stopping its activity."

<Sharon's comments raised Israel's rhetoric against Iran and came on the heels of assessments by IDF brass that, after March, diplomatic efforts to curtail Iran's nuclear program will be pointless. >

 link to www.jpost.com

But Rumsfield remains while Sharon -- Sharon is dead.
____________________

So what's the bottom line? I think the bottom line still could be nuclear war before November of this year. After all, the g.d. dem has no crystal ball any more than any other Indy reader. But we Indy types tend to think and look through the corporatist spin. Not that it matters, because what matters is OUR reality, not theirs. Anyway, this is just an effort to see through the current fog of political warfare and discern what is really probably happening.

So, yes, I was pretty much convinced that nuclear war was coming up, within the next 60 days, after reading the recent Indy article --

<Interview With Michel Chossudovsky>

 http://portland.indymedia.org/en/2006/01/332497.shtml

But it could also be like this: Iran is too strong to push over and the world will adjust to the idea of Iran as one of the nuclear club. The powers-that-be can accept that Iran has nukes, just as they accepted reality when France, China, India and Pakistan (not to mention Israel) got nukes. What they cannot accept is shutting down of the Persian Golf.

Of course, the powers-that-be would prefer to postpone recognition of the reality of a nuclear Iran until some Democratic patsy is in the White House. That way, the perception can be reinforced that Dems are weak on defense and can't be trusted to protect affluent American suburbanites from the evil turbaned terrorists. And what about progressives? We aren't weak on defense -- we are STRONG on a peace offensive! After all, the best defense is a good offense.

And what about the radicals, the anti-dems and such? Well, they are part of the reason that the powers-that-be do not want to risk defeat of the U.S. military in an unsuccessful attempt to occupy Iran. Such defeat could destabilize the U.S. to the point that those radicals could actually become relevant to the political process in the U.S.A.! Now, THAT is about as palatable to the powers-that-be as the shut-down of the Persian Gulf.

"So what's the big deal?" you ask. And I agree. We still are left with the same problems -- how to oppose the fascist tendency, how to oppose imperialism and global capital, how to stop the Iraq slaughter, how to survive, how to live free . . . ?