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Hurricane Rita may threaten Louisiana

Computer models predict another powerful hurricane strike in the Gulf Coast sometime this coming weekend.
Hurricane Rita weather map
Hurricane Rita weather map
Another powerful hurricane is shaping up to strike somewhere in the Gulf region by this weekend. The graphic above shows the position of tropical storm Rita on the far right, just north of the Eastern end of the Island of Cuba as of Monday, September 19th, 2005. Rita is position between a ridge of High Pressure in the north (Green) and a low pressure system to the south (blue) which all the computer models are projecting will allow Rita to slip through the Florida straits between Florida and Cuba and into the Gulf, becoming a catagory 3 hurricane by Wednesday (the red dot in the Middle of the Gulf). Strength projections are only made for three days, but it seems likely, given that the low pressure system in the Carribean is shifting Eastward, this will reduce what is called 'shear' and the forecasters are therefore calling for 'significant strengthening', so given the very warm waters in the Gulf this year, and the favorable conditions for hurricane development concurrent with Rita (since not only warm water, but shear is also important) it seems that Rita could continue to strengthen after Wednesday and become a catagory 4 or perhaps even a catagory 5 hurricane.

If the high pressure system over the Gulf states moves significantly towards the East, this will then cause Hurricane Rita to be steered into Louisiana , otherwise the Hurricane will make landfall on the Texas coast. The GFDL model is predicting signifcant weakening of the High Pressure system over the Gulf States steering Hurricane Rita to the right of the forecast range, resulting in another big hurricane hit for Louisiana by this weekend. It is worth noting here that computer models become less reliable after two or three days and thus are subject to errors when making long forecasts of hurricane behavior.

The NOAA describes the GFDL model as follows...
 http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/nhurr97/MODELS.HTM
The GFDL Model is a full physics model, developed as a research tool at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, that has become fully operational. With its fine resolution (about 19km) and other special adaptations to the hurricane problem, it has an excellent forecasting record.

Major metropolitan areas of Texas that may be threatened by Rita, include Houston, Galveston, which are close to the Louisiana border, and thus may be hit depending on how much the high pressure system weakens and moves out thus steering the Hurricane more to the left, while the GFDL model predicts a course not far from New Orleans, which would be a double disaster. It will be interesting to see how the American government reacts to the possible emergency evacuations which may become necessary sometime later on this week.

homepage: homepage: http://www.awitness.org/


houston 19.Sep.2005 08:58

brent

note that the consensus model currently predicts a hit on the Houston Gavelston area by next Saturday...the hurricane will follow a track between the low pressure and the high pressure much like a marble follows a groove, and just how far to the east it will hit depends on how far east the low pressure moves and as well how far east the low pressure (in blue) over texas moves as well, since the hurricane will steer between these two systems...
Track as of Monday
Track as of Monday

Oil 19.Sep.2005 10:00

brent

I just remembered that 25 per cent of America's oil is produced in that gulf region...this is really going to be expensive...

the coming spin by the priests of propaganda 19.Sep.2005 10:00


Beware as Rita might hit New Orleans then the high priest of propaganda (Karl Rove) will try to siege the event to say (spin) the image of Bush (the boy-king... god of fascism) as protector from storms. If Rita hits New Orleans what you might see is embeded reporters with national guard (mixed with Blackwater troops) rescuing puppies and kittens from a evil terroristic tropical storm....

Hurricane Season 21.Sep.2005 08:58

Adelina

We cannot fight Mother Nature. All we can do is prepare for the worst even if the worst does not happen. I pray that New Orleans doe not take another "hit"!!!!!

this is good 21.Sep.2005 10:50

Alicia Marin 9th grade at foster lincy_jun90@yahoo.com

i think this article is realy good

New Crisis/Disaster Search Engine That Helps 21.Sep.2005 15:04

Sir Seek

I have made a customized EMERGENCY type search engine that links only to crisis situation type websites (like relief aide, evacuation planning layouts, crisis management setup and others relating to disasters caused by terrorism, natural disasters, poverty, disease and man-made war), see http://www.CrisisSearch.com ... This niche portal was made after the Katrina devastation (NOW THEY HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT HURICANE RITA) and hopefully it will assist humanity in/during the next disasterous crisis...

Please add related crisis blogs and websites to the database, already 1,000 websites spidered for meta data (fetched meta tags for description, title and keywords, plus we then grab the text from page and cache it for further searchable data)...

Also a portal as at the bottom of every search page has external links. Also a 'Suggestion Bot' that tries to suggest similar terms to use in further queries... Blogs/forums are on the way (being created so people can find more personalized one-on-one advice/help) for people to post missing friends, family, pets or post about volunteering or possible stradegies for Emergency Planning for current crisises or Clean-Up plans for past disasters.

My first ever nonprofit humanitarian project was http://www.SpareSomeChange.com which only covers resources for those living homeless (I had suffered homelessness a few times as a youth). I will try to come up with other helping humanity type portals as I can afford too...



Making money from the misery of others in the face of disaster 21.Sep.2005 15:42

voice of the small folks

select quotes from Associated Press: NEW YORK Sep 21, 2005 "Crude-oil prices rose Wednesday as traders braced for the possibility that Hurricane Rita could smash into key oil facilities in Texas."
"Prices are going to be driven directly by the projected path of the storm," said John Kilduff, analyst at Fimat USA.

We really know now that fuel prices are going to be exorbitant. Maybe so you oilpeople can show us how "generous" you really are by giving another $100.000 to a disaster relief fund after securing a few more quick billions of our misfortune.


"Oil prices slipped from earlier highs after forecasters said Rita would likely hit south of Galveston, Texas, which is near Houston. Traders had been worried about the already-ravaged oil facilities off the Louisiana." and
"Data showing that gasoline and distillate fuel inventories rose in the last week came as a surprise to analysts and also helped prices ease off highs, but the calming effect was limited."

So there was more gas afterall... surprise, surprise, surprise...

I thought we had laws in place preventing the big business from cashing in under major disaster conditions? Morals have long left the building.

Contractors: refuse "rebuilding contracts" from anyone in oil until regular folks are taken care of and then tripple your fees for any work done for the "oilboys"

Land of the free (to be greedy). We might as well follow suit. This seems to be ok to do since we have no one to protect us from the conglamorates. How about some more tax-breaks for them? I'm sure we will foot the bill in the end. Maybe they'll come and arrest me now...

Just another quick one 21.Sep.2005 16:07

voice of the small folks

Clicked on an article listed by google that was posted 6 hrs ago by "Investors.com/breaking news" titled "Treasurys up as Rita raises concern about Fed priority". subheading:"Investor's Business Daily (subscription) - 6 hours ago
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - The impact of a strengthening Hurricane Rita in driving up oil prices and driving down stock shares buoyed Treasury bonds Wednesday ..." (Copyright 2005 MarketWatch, Inc.)
 http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=31763105&brk=1


It was funny to find that "The article you requested is no longer available."

Did not take them long to yank this one off the news shelf. I guess we're not supposed to know... lol


The markets should be frozen until this storm blows over

they pull them quick - save pages religously and then you can upload copy 21.Sep.2005 17:46

skizex

I save tons of mhtml files and have them later to read, sort, show others the patterns. Maybe a record of what went wrong and how not enough people took the matters facing the USA seriously. Someday my laptop may be useful, or used against me...
We all be in big doo when Rita comes ashore. Martial law will spread ever wider -and with an earthquake thrown in, well, NATIONAL EMERGENCY. 34 states are in states of emergency as it is !-last I checked. I still think they are using HAARP and GWEN towers to steers these, ramp them up.See enterprisemission or amerikan expose.com
And Look who benefits. rbnlive.com has up to date info on all of what is happening to the 'good ol USA' United we stand my ass. What a sorry state of affairs! This is 9-11 pt 2, but few know because weather mod is considered by most to be an outlandish idea. They have had the tech for some time but with the computer speed increased they have achieved mastery...Look into it and think about what is happening. Band together cause things are gonna get weird. Read up on FEMA powers...it will scare the jebus out of you. I also suggest you tell your friends and listen in to rbnlive.com They be talking Tesla at the moment...

pray for Houston 21.Sep.2005 21:52

Andy agarrett09@houston.rr.com

Hey, Im 14 and live right in the middle of Houston and Im not leaving my house b/c my dad wolnt leave so if you do pray please pray for the saftey of the people of Houston. Thanks

Our world is shaped by Nature, the carving continues. 22.Sep.2005 06:06

Realist.

I pray that the destructive storm that god has sent you, will not destroy you!