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Eco-Terrorism Chaos theory

Is eco-terrorism chaos what an anarchist wants?
The papers shown below are posted at  http://www.boulder.nist.gov/BL50/SignificantPapers.pdf

"Significant Papers from the First 50 Years of the Boulder Labs"
Modifying the ionosphere with intense radio waves
William F. Utlaut
OT Institute for Telecommunication Sciences
Robert S. Cohen
NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory
Science, 174: 245-254, October 15, 1971
Although controversial, the ITS experiments in "ionospheric modification" were actually quite
benign. The ionosphere (the earth's upper atmosphere) is important in telecommunications
because it interacts with radio waves in various, not always predictable, ways. In order to study
the properties of the ionosphere, high-power transmitters known as "heaters" were constructed
that could radiate vertical HF beams incident on the ionosphere. These beams would briefly,
temporarily, "modify" the small section of ionosphere affected, by raising its temperature
slightly (far less than the sun does every day). At the same time, a probe wave would be sent up
to record what occurred in the ionosphere during the transmission. One of the first heaters was
built at the Department of Commerce field site in Platteville, Colorado, and was operated during
the late 1960s and 1970s. This article describes the work done at Platteville and discusses
preliminary results. Although ionospheric modification is no longer performed in Colorado,
these studies laid the groundwork for continuing research of this type in Alaska (HIPAS and
HAARP), and elsewhere in the world.
The ionospheric modification experiments provide an opportunity to better understand the
aeronomy of the natural ionosphere and also afford the control of a naturally occurring plasma,
which will make possible further progress in plasma physics. The ionospheric modification by
powerful radio waves is analogous to studies of laser and microwave heating of laboratory
plasmas (20). "Anomalous" reflectivity effects similar to the observed ionospheric attenuation
have already been noted in plasmas modulated by microwaves, and anomalous heating may have
been observed in plasmas irradiated by lasers. Contacts have now been established between the
workers in these diverse areas, which span a wide range of the electromagnetic spectrum.
Perhaps ionospheric modification will also be a valuable technique in radio communications.


An analysis of three weather-related aircraft accidents
Tetsuya T. Fujita
Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago
Fernando Caracena
NOAA Atmospheric Physics and Chemistry Laboratory
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 58: 1164-1181, 1977
This paper is a historical landmark in both meteorology and air safety. Fujita had earlier
identified what he hypothesized as wind damage footprints of severe downdrafts (later termed
microbursts) in his areal storm damage studies. He showed the plausibility of downbursts as a
threat to aviation in a companion paper Fujita and Beyers (1977): Spearhead echo and
downbursts in the crash of an airliner. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 129-146. However, his hypothesis
remained controversial until this paper. Working independently, Dr. Fernando Caracena had
collected and analyzed data from wind towers and other pressure and temperature sensors that
constituted a de facto meteorological mesonetwork surrounding the crash site of Continental
flight 426 on 7 August 1975. Dr. Caracena's definitive analysis (NTSB exhibit No. 5E-1 of the
Stapleton Accident, Washington, D.C., 12 pp.) led the National Transportation Safety Board to
conclude that this accident was the result of windshear. Caracena brought the critical piece of
evidence to Fujita's downburst hypothesis, which definitively showed that not only could
cumulus convection result in downdraft-induced, damaging winds, but that such a phenomenon
could also bring down a modern jetliner. This paper paved the way for many followup studies
and field projects, which resulted in the construction of Terminal Doppler Radars at major
airports and new pilot training programs. Consequently, since 1994, there have been no air
disasters in the United States attributable to microbursts.
Two aircraft accidents in 1975, one at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City
on 24 June and the other at Stapleton International Airport in Denver on 7 August, were
examined in detail. A third accident on 23 June 1976 at Philadelphia International Airport is
being investigated. Amazingly, there was a spearhead echo just to the north of each accident site.
The echoes formed from 5 to 50 min in advance of the accident and moved faster than other
echoes in the vicinity. These echoes were photographed by National Weather Service radars,
130-205 km away. At closer ranges, however, one or more circular echoes were depicted by
airborne and ground radars. These cells were only 3-5 km in diameter, but they were
accompanied by downdrafts of extreme intensity, called downbursts. All accidents occurred as
aircraft, either descending or climbing, lost altitude while experiencing strong wind shear inside
downburst cells.


On the depletion of Antarctic ozone
Susan Solomon
NOAA/CIRES Aeronomy Laboratory
Rolando R. Garcia
National Center for Atmospheric Research
F. Sherwood Rowland
Department of Chemistry, University. of California, Irvine
Donald J. Wuebbles
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Nature, 321(6072): 755-758, 1986
In this paper, Dr. Solomon proposed what turned out to be the correct theory of the cause of the
Antarctic ozone hole and propelled international efforts to protect the ozone layer.
When the Antarctic ozone hole was discovered in 1986 by the British Antarctic Survey, theories
abounded as to its cause. Dynamical, chemical, and solar arguments were made. This paper by
Solomon et al. pointed out that human-produced chlorine compounds could be interacting with
stratospheric ice clouds and that, in the meteorological setting that is unique to the polar regions, the
combination of conditions could produce extreme ozone losses. It was a remarkable insight, one
that required thinking "outside the box" of any one discipline in the atmospheric sciences.
Chemistry, dynamics, and seasonal meteorology were all critical aspects of the theory. And as it
turned out, the authors were right. Later observational evidence, gathered by an international team
of researchers in the National Ozone Expeditions of 1986 and 1987 led by lead author Solomon,
confirmed the theory advanced by this landmark 1986 Nature paper. This paper and the subsequent
confirmation of its theory have literally launched a new area of research in atmospheric science: the
study of chemical reactions occurring on the surfaces of particles. Prior to the discovery of the
ozone hole, this so-called "heterogeneous chemistry" was a fledgling area of stratospheric research
(a fact that explains why the ozone hole caught the entire research community off guard!). Today,
the field is transformed and heterogeneous chemistry is recognized as a pivotal factor in ozone
depletion as well as other atmospheric issues. Lead author Solomon was awarded the 1999
National Medal of Science by President Clinton in recognition of her achievement, and coauthor
Rowland received the Nobel Prize for this and other work on the ozone layer.
Recent observations by Farman et al. reveal remarkable depletions in the total atmospheric ozone
content in Antarctica. The observed total ozone decreased smoothly during the period from about
1975 to the present, but only in the spring season. The observed ozone content at Halley Bay was
~30% lower in the Antarctic spring seasons (October) of 1980-84 than in the springs of 1957-
73. No such obvious perturbation is observable in other seasons, or at other than the very highest
latitude in the Southern Hemisphere, and the magnitude of the observed change there far exceeds
climatological variability. We present here balloonsonde ozone data which show that these ozone
changes are largely confined to the region from about 10 to 20 km, during the period August to
October. We show that homogeneous (gas phase) chemistry as presently understood cannot
explain these observed depletions. On the other hand, a unique feature of the Antarctic lower
stratosphere is its high frequency of polar stratospheric clouds, providing a reaction site for
heterogeneous reactions. A heterogeneous reaction between HCl and ClONO2 is explored as a
possible mechanism to explain the ozone observations. This process produces changes in ozone
that are consistent with the observations, and its implications for the behaviour of HNO3 and
NO2 in the Antarctic stratosphere are consistent with observations of those species there,
providing an important check on the proposed mechanism. Similar ozone changes are obtained
with another possible heterogeneous reaction, H2O+ClONO2.


Response of the thermosphere and ionosphere to geomagnetic storms
Tim J. Fuller-Rowell and Mihail V. Codrescu
NOAA Space Environment Laboratory/CIRES
R.J. Moffett and Shaun Quegan
University of Sheffield
Journal of Geophysical Research, 99: 3893-3914, 1994
The ionosphere during geomagnetic storms exhibits complicated and apparently inexplicable
behavior often described as chaotic. This paper recognized the interplay between the instant a
magnetic storm begins and the subsequent behavior of the ionosphere above an arbitrary
location. Through the use of a sophisticated model, the work demonstrated that the apparent
chaotic behavior could be explained and predicted in detail using a minimum of physical
assumptions. In doing so, a complex physical problem, often thought intractable, was resolved.
This paper described the balance of physical processes responsible for the ionospheric response
to geomagnetic storms. In particular, Fuller-Rowell et al. were able to show the dependence on
Universal Time, and explain the origin of the local time modulation in the positive and negative
phases. Previously the storm-time response was regarded as chaotic, with positive and negative
phases appearing randomly. The paper provides a framework for analysis of the observed
ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms. In addition to separating local time from
UT/longitude dependence, the paper provided an explanation of that part of the response that is
consistent from one storm to the next. The physical insight enabled an empirical storm-time
prediction model to be developed for the International Reference Ionosphere, something that was
not possible before. While a relatively recent publication, this paper has been cited 120 times
since publication with 86 "significances" since 1998 attesting to the growing recognition of its
Four numerical simulations have been performed, at equinox, using a coupled thermosphereionosphere
model to illustrate the response of the upper atmosphere to geomagnetic storms. The
storms are characterized by an increase in magnetospheric energy input at high latitude for a 12-
hour period; each storm commences at a different universal time (UT). The initial response at
high latitude is that Joule heating raises the temperature of the upper atmosphere and ion drag
drives high-velocity neutral winds. The heat source drives a global wind surge, from both polar
regions, which propagates to low latitudes and into the opposite hemisphere. The surge has the
character of a large-scale gravity wave with a phase speed of about 600 m s-1. Behind the surge a
global circulation of magnitude 100 m s-1 is established at middle latitudes, indicating that the
wave and the onset of global circulation are manifestations of the same phenomena. A dominant
feature of the response is the penetration of the surge into the opposite hemisphere where it
drives poleward winds for a few hours. The global wind surge has a preference for the night
sector and for the longitude of the magnetic pole and therefore depends on the UT start time of
the storm. A second phase of the meridional circulation develops after the wave interaction but is
also restricted, in this case by the buildup of zonal winds via the Coriolis interaction.
Conservation of angular momentum may limit the buildup of zonal wind in extreme cases. The
divergent wind field drives upwelling and composition change on both height and pressure
surfaces. The composition bulge responds to both the background and the storm-induced
horizontal winds; it does not simply rotate with Earth. During the storm the disturbance wind
modulates the location of the bulge; during the recovery the background winds induce a diurnal
variation in its position. Equatorward winds in sunlight produce positive ionospheric changes
during the main driving phase of the storm. Negative ionospheric phases are caused by increases
of molecular nitrogen in regions of sunlight, the strength of which depends on longitude and the
local time of the sector during storm input. Regions of positive phase in the ionosphere persist in
the recovery period due to decreases in mean molecular mass in regions of previous
downwelling. Ion density changes, expressed as a ratio of disturbed to quiet values, exhibit a
diurnal variation that is driven by the location of the composition bulge; this variation explains
the ac component of the local time variation of the observed storm phase.


yea right 19.Sep.2005 10:46


if eco-terrorists could do that - they'd start with the white house, not new orleans.