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Bush claim of job creation - false

Here's what corporate media is saying --

"U.S. employers added 274,000 workers in April, 100,000 more than economists expected, as companies shrugged off higher oil costs and bet the economy will bounce back from a first-quarter slowdown."

"The Labor Department today also boosted its initial estimate for job growth in March and February by a combined 93,000. Incomes rose more than forecast and employees worked longer hours."

The reality, however, is something different.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics cannot call every employer, nor know how many people are self-employed. So they use various adjustments to estimate the reality -- or to come up with numbers that the White House wants to see.

For example, if you remove seasonal adjusting then the number of Americans employed drops by 160,000. And the size of the entire labor force drops by 488,000. "Job creation" statistics are derived from labor force totals.

See Bureau of Labor Statistics --

 http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t10.htm

People who don't show up in the labor force numbers also don't show up in the unemployment numbers. So, the best known technique for fudging the numbers is to exclude people from the labor force, saying that people who have given up on searching for work, in officially approved ways that are countable, are no longer looking for work.

See Bureau of Labor Statistics --

 http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

There's also the less well known " Birth/Death Model" for adjusting the numbers. The Birth/Death Model is basically a mathematical guess at the number of businesses that are "born" and "die" during a given month. No actual counts or numbers back up these assumptions since the Model was designed to pick up job creation/destruction that happens outside of any survey.

See Bureau of Labor Statistics --

 http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

With nothing but theory to go on, these numbers can be totally wrong. Over time, the numbers can be so far off that the government will make adjustments after the fact -- announcing in 2006 that the numbers for early 2005 were off by whatever amount is necessary to make them believable in the context of the entire statistical picture for the country.

How many jobs were "created" last month via the Birth/Death Model? The answer is about 257,000. In other words, about 90% of all jobs "created" last month were accounted for by a political guess disguised as a mathematical model! In March the BLS reported that 110,000 jobs were created. The Birth/Death Model accounts for 179,000 of those jobs.
What kind of jobs... 09.May.2005 21:10

ex-PDX

The real question is what kind of jobs does GW clain to be creating? They are certainly not the well-paying jobs that support the middle class of our country, but instead the low-wage, near slave albor seen at the local Wal-Mart, McD's ad nauseum. The jobs that pay $5.15/hr (sorry, AZ comment...) in a town where a full-time employee can barely make ends meet at $10/hr. They are the jobs that keep the poor even poorer and drag down anyone who was unlucky enough to lose thsir job adn have to settle for one of these crap jobs to survive.