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This is a post from DemocraticUnderground.com dated 11/30/04.
155446> Tue Nov-30-04 02:09 AM Original message
Miami Herald article shows that Kerry may have won Florida!
Edited on Tue Nov-30-04 02:18 AM by pointsoflight
In an article published yesterday, reporters from the Miami Herald provided data from hand counts that they conducted in several northern "dixiecrat" counties in Florida. They concluded that nothing was awry, and in fact, went so far as to title the article "No flaw in Bush's state win." Here's a link to a reprint of the story that doesn't require registration:  http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/20021... < http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002102809_florida28.html> Here are the tallies for Union County: Bush original: 3396 Bush hand count: 3393 (-3) Kerry original: 1251 Kerry hand count: 1272 (+21) Net change: Kerry +24 Here are the tallies for Lafayette County: Bush original: 2460 Bush hand count: 2452 (-8) Kerry original: 845 Kerry hand count: 848 (+3) Net change: Kerry +11 It's a bit more complicated for the third county they looked at, Suwanee County, because they only report the totals for a hand count of "almost 60%" of the ballots. Bush original: 11153 Kerry original: 4522 Bush hand count: 6140 Kerry hand count: 2984 In the original count, 71.2% of the votes cast for Bush or Kerry (n=15675) went to Bush. In the hand count, this drops to 67.3%. That is a significant drop. Let's translate that into numbers. If you take the percentages from the hand count and extrapolate, here's what you get: Bush = 15675 x .673 = 10549 (loss of 604) Kerry = 15675 x .327 = 5126 (gain of 604) Net change: Kerry +1208 A switch of 1208 votes in a county with less than 16K votes cast is obviously huge. Now maybe there's a very large percentage of Bush votes in that remaining 40% that they didn't count, but we can't know that because they didn't count them. Which begs the question...why did they stop counting in Suwannee County when their tabulation of 60% of the ballots deviated so much from the original total? And without actually counting those remaining ballots, how can they possibly report that nothing is amiss when the data they have so far suggests a possible problem? They conclude that there's "no flaw in Bush's state win." Sorry, but what I see is a possible gain of 1243 votes for Kerry from three small counties in which only 23627 ballots were cast. That represents about 0.3% of the ballots cast for Bush and Kerry statewide. If Kerry gained votes at the same rate statewide, he picks up nearly 400,000 votes and wins Florida. Thanks Miami Herald, you just revealed to us in your hand counts that there's a possibility that Kerry won Florida.
links don't work 30.Nov.2004 16:54


the links don't work

please!!!!!!!! 30.Nov.2004 18:34

Andy from Beaverton

You can't use a sample from one county and apply the results to the entire state. These county has a high registration of Democrats, while other counties have a higher registration of Republicans. Any one who has studied sampling and statistics would give you an F for your conclusion.



title sez it all

"DemocraticUnderground.com" - whaddya expect? 30.Nov.2004 18:56


and "Denny Burbeck" (search his name as 'Author' on PDX Indy) is the one who re-posted the 'Let's Boil It Down, Mr. Republican' screed a half dozen times . . .

handcounts do show that both voters and America was robbed 30.Nov.2004 19:22


And the title is correct. The herald might not have been able to put 2 and 2 together, but this poster did, and did so with the numbers comming from the herald. So, how is it missleading?

Sam Parry, ConsortiumNews.Com 01.Dec.2004 16:22


Perhaps you can't apply results from one county to results statewide, but it is important to remember that this handcount was done in response to an article by Sam Perry at Consortiumnews.com:

Bush's 'Incredible' Vote Tallies, by Sam Parry, November 9, 2004

Here's a quote from this article that appeared in the Seattle Times as something on the Internet, without identifying the writer.

"George W. Bush's vote tallies, especially in the key state of Florida, are so statistically stunning that they border on the unbelievable."

Here's the link to the article:


The Washington Post criticized him for ignoring the Dixiecrat effect in the Florida panhandle, but Parry responded to this by saying that the disparities between registered Republicans and voters were more puzzling in counties like Orange County (Orlando), where the population is higher and the Dixiecrat effect not as strong.

Here's a link to his response to the Washington Post:


It seems the Miami Herald study discussed in the Seattle Times was an attempt to substantiate the Washington Post's theory.

The discrepancies between electronic and hand count were significant in the three counties, they could be higher in some counties. It is also interesting they stopped counting at 60% in one county.

Sam Parry used to write for AP and Newsweek and seems like a careful journalist. Maybe that's why the Seattle Times article by Knight-Ridder did not identify him but suggested this was just somnthing crazy on the Internet.

Recounts 01.Dec.2004 20:52


Has anyone ever seen a recount in this election that has NOT shown that Kerry didn't get all his votes in the original tally?

If nothing is amiss, then recounts should show both candidates losing votes here and there. I have only seen those that show Kerry being shortchanged in the original count. All things being equal, that's statistically impossible, right?