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government selection 2004

Bad news folks: I think it's over

I think it's over.
At least as far as the official story goes:

Last update I heard from ohio has bush up by well over 150,000 with 90% -- doing the math I see Kerry needing to go from about 48% (thusfar) to about 60% with the remaining votes. That seems virtually impossible to this statistics nerd.

Even if Kerry won every other state (which is possible, but not likely) he would still lose or tie (which means he loses cuz the house decides).

This is of course barring lawsuits and open revolt --see ya at the protest tommorrow...

yup, we're in trouble 02.Nov.2004 22:52

troubled

so what to do...?

DIEBOLD MUST ANSWER 02.Nov.2004 23:13

XXX

THEY *WILL NOT* GET AWAY WITH THIS!

 http://blackboxvoting.org/

um, what are you reading 02.Nov.2004 23:20

???

Didn't anyone tell you not to count your chickens before they've hatched.

Those who are not calling Ohio have Bush 249 to Kerry 221.

Those who are calling Ohio have Bush 269 to Kerry 221.

It's true Bush just needs 1 more state and he is ahead in 1 of them. But why not wait before jumping into despair.

269 and the runt is in 02.Nov.2004 23:58

beyond protest

If the runt only gets 269, then that means the other 269 of the total 538 go to Kerry. That tie will be decided by The (Out) House of Representatives, with a Rep majority, who will vote for the runt.

official count 03.Nov.2004 01:48

numbers

There are about 164012 votes remaining to be counted, according to the
official election count in Ohio.

If 100.00% went to Kerry, then Kerry would have 2,740,470 votes.

Realistically, the error margin on about 2,500,000 votes, assuming these
are randomly distributed with no bias (i.e. pro-Bush polls come in first
in the state), is about sqrt(2,5000,000) = 1600 = about 0.06%.

So a more realistic fraction of the remaining vote for Kerry would
be 164,012 * (48.16% + 0.30%) if we accept a 5 standard deviation
divergence in favour of Kerry in the so far uncounted Ohio vote.

This still leaves Bush about 160,000 or so ahead.

There is no way that Ohio will switch to Kerry unless the massive
systematic election fraud is corrected.

Only massive legal appeals against election fraud and direct action can give
this to Kerry.


 http://election.sos.state.oh.us/results/SingleRaceSummary.aspx?race=PP97.86%

Office Candidate Party Votes % Of Votes

President/Vice President Bush, George W. Republican 2,747,992 51.36%

Kerry, John F. Democratic 2,576,459 48.16%

Badnarik, Michael 14,007 0.26%

Peroutka, Michael Anthony 11,555 0.22%

Cobb, David Keith-WI 24 0.00%

Schriner, Joe -WI 14 0.00%

Duncan, Richard A.-WI 5 0.00%

Zych, Thomas F.-WI 5 0.00%

Harris, James -WI 0 0.00%

Parker, John T.-WI 0 0.00%

Total Votes 5,350,061


OK we voted Kerry, so now what? 03.Nov.2004 02:09

Tecumseh

A message to labor and anti-capitalist activists who mobilised for Kerry - from the heart of Middle America...

You didn't lose - the Democrats did! Now get back to the streets and start forming the a working class third force in US politics!

One thing is for sure - Bush did not steal the election. He won it, with the votes of what looks like about 3m *extra* clerical reactionaries from the south and mid-west. As the demographics of the vote are filtered, we will probably also see the same phenomenon that put Arnie into the governorship of California - some migrants and the urban poor also voted for Bush. It is no use chasing after the vote rigging story now: there is a bigger story emerging: the political failure of mainstream Democratic politics and the need for an alternative.

The question is posed point blank: what should Labor do, and what should progressive people do, when confronted with a large minorty of small-town religious reactionaries who, combined with the conservative elite of coastal America, can defeat the voting power of the working poor, organised Labor and the Democrat voting base?

Answer: get back to the streets and organise.

The unions that spent millions of dollars and mobilised thousands of dedicated activists did not waste their time and money: a base has been built for organised Labor now in places where it had little base before - and the Democrat machine has been taken over and renewed from the bunch of reactionaries who ran it under Clinton, in many places.

The pro-Kerry union leaders - and the big figures of the anti-corporate movement - need now to show some leadership. We need to call a CONGRESS OF LABOR now. The unions, the pro-Labor Democrats, the Naderites and the mass movement that went on the streets from Seattle to New York this year needs to be organised and mobilised.

We need a new working class political party: call it a force or a movement if you want to keep your Democrat affiliation in hope that just one day all the religious crackpots will one day forget to vote, or Fox and Clearchannel will go liberal.

Make no mistake - we are not up against fraud here, we are up against political reaction: it is RE-action to the actions of the poor, the oppressed and the dispossessed of the world.

Middle America is dominated by a reactionary coalition with a death wish. It has voted for war and will get war.

Bush will now renew his war - on the poor, the working class and on the progressive struggles of people from Fallujah to Gaza to Cochabamba to Ourtown. We need to say, like William Tecumseh Shermand - we intend to give him all the war he can handle.

education 03.Nov.2004 04:05

eldingo

The majority is not always right, in fact probably wrong more often than not - but in a representative democracy, it does RULE. Bush didn't just win on a set-up gerrymander of colleges - he got the majority as well - by a lot too it seems.
As much as I hate this (and I'm not an American), those people that voted for him just don't see (or maybe care) the danger they have put themselves and the rest of the world in.
What is protesting going to do? YOU know you are right - but what you need to do is get out there and start educating these people that voted for him.

the star chamber could swing it again 03.Nov.2004 04:11

but the other way this time

Q: Why haven't any of these Supreme Court justices retired?

A: They're all horrified at Bush and regretful about what they did four years ago. If THIS mess ends up in the high court, they could intervene in the opposite direction.

I mean, it's possible.

Bleah.