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government | media criticism selection 2004

why do exit polls fail?

PBS experts wonder why exit polls failed to predict winners this election and the last two as well?
Experts wonder why math does not work in the US anymore? This is sour grapes, but it is a good question for more research.
what makes you think it's the exit polls that are wrong 02.Nov.2004 23:16


After all, they seem to be right in some areas, but way off in others, like in Florida (2004, 2002, 2000)and Ohio. Funny how they can be right in states with low electoral votes and fewer electronic voting machines and so wrong in states with more electoral votes with a large number of electronic voting machines. Such a strange coincidence, don't you think?

the simplest answer 02.Nov.2004 23:38

jest thinkin'

The simplest reason that exit polls would not match the actual results is that the votes are not recorded the way the voters intended to vote. The reasons that could happen are many, some accidental, some intentional. My guess is a percentage of the votes are being changed by programming inside the many electronic voting machines. This would make the exit polls off by that percentage.

Physical problems with the ballots, and accidental glitches, are pretty common in all elections. But exit polling has been consistently accurate in American elections for 40 years, except in the last two elections. Go figure!