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Kerry has Oregon clinched

For those Oregon voters who have not yet sent in their ballot and who are practicing a Safes States strategy, I have news. Oregon is safe. The preponderance of recent surveys show Kerry ahead here by 5.
For those Oregon voters who have not yet sent in their ballot and who are practicing a Safes States strategy, I have news. Oregon is safe. The preponderance of recent surveys show Kerry ahead here by 5. So feel free to vote your heart.


I'm no statistician, but I think if you take this many surveys, each with a margin of error of 4%, and average them, that the resulting margin of error would be close to zero. When I looked at these, I dropped the two extreme polls (Riley and Wall Street) and averaged the remaining seven. Result: Kerry by 5.2%.

I looked at several other factors. None of the news sources, and apparently not the campaigns either, are treating Oregon as a contested race any more. Also, as pointed out here in recent posts, surveys tend to underestimate Kerry's strength for several reasons: they don't count newly registered voters, and they con't count voters who rely solely on cell phones. Both of these groups are likely younger and therefore more left-leaning, the thinking goes. The surveys tend to be sponsored by corporate interests and worded to skew the results.

So you can feel free to vote for Cobb or Nader or Brown without helping Bush.

See you on November 3.
It's not over until it's over 29.Oct.2004 10:13


Don't be swayed by estimates. No votes will be counted until election day and the only thing pollsters agree on is that they really have no idea how the election will turn out.

Election 2004 Will it Be "P" or "A"? 29.Oct.2004 11:12

Grandma Herlove grandmaherlove@yahoo.com

We are all searching for an answer, a solution for a problem, any problem. During an election year, as that critical moment draws intellect closer to the choice, the best candidate for the office, I now have a new way to consider the choice. It was not something I was taught or learned from the most accredited schools of the PRSE system (Politics, Religion, Society, Education). The most comprehensive solutions would naturally come from outside that particular box. For me it was after I committed my concerns and goals toward the advanced civilization.

The advanced civilization is "of no admixture of harm." While at first glance this looks strange because where in the world could such a state of mind flourish? It is of the "innocent state of mind." But what does this have to do with the candidate to vote for? The answer involves intellect and its humanity with the conscious participation in our evolution. If intellect understands this and values its SSEC as inalienableness, then deciding the difference between "Predator," and "Advanced" asks of one's conceptual faculty to review the basis of these qualities. (SSEC = Self, Sovereignty, Equity, Conceptual responsibility For the previous day's discovery regarding this matter, visit my website posted here.)

Frontline, on PBS, Wednesday October 27, 2004, 8:00 PST showed a documentary, "The Choice 2004" reviewing the political careers of the presidential candidates. While, I have no preference based on the political campaign, political party, or voting, and only because it was just yesterday that I realized how deeply into our evolutionary paths that survival of our species goes, what I saw and heard on Frontline was more clearly and for the first time differently evaluated by me.
(See www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/"The Choice 2004")

From their political histories, it became clearer that one candidate is predominantly more predatory. One candidate shows a greater concern for avoiding predatory conflict. Yet neither man stated that they are aware of the advanced civilization. I had to conclude this on my own. I was able to do so because I have become aware of it as visualization for the subsequent generations of my humanity. Consequently, I must weigh the chances for my humanity more consciously to work toward such objectives by supporting whomever it is that is not more predominantly a predator.

All the issues about which any of us hope will better our life on Earth are still a conceptual responsibility. Without the SSEC, the very thought of this may not come to mind at all. It might be, quite then that anyone, like a sheep, will behave to please the master, will abnegate Self, Sovereignty, Equity, Conceptual responsibility or to follow a herd instinct when in a point of evolution, humans are not of flocks or herds. Individually, we all know to run from the wolf, get away from the shark, to escape from what will do us harm. Unless that is, we have been taught otherwise.

One molecule of any element to one space: a cosmic democracy. We are endowed with the faculty of thought that seems to intend quanta related capability in conceptual field and an insatiable curiosity about our origins. If our origins are from the universe, it is toward its conceptual pattern integrities that our most conscious participation in our evolution is directed. Therefore, we must simplify, consolidate, and ultimately unify the objective. The predator will always present us with renewed will to escape from being caught in his/her self abnegations and admixture of harm. We need never put a name to the person. We could call one person "P" for Predator and the other person "A" for Advanced.

Predatory personalities are continuities of less than conscious life. Advanced personalities are continuities of a more conscious life. This life results as a product of complex periodic interactions. The interactions are known as cycles. They are also knowable as periodic recurrences of a higher frequency order. Our humanity will ever be presented with some degree of the predator and some degree of the advanced civilization's comprehensive mind to consider, upon which to reliably cogitate. We will forever have to answer "What is the most consciously comprehensive considerate alternate option?" At the voting booth is it to be "P" or "A"?

I voted for Cobb and feel great! 29.Oct.2004 11:44

Brian Setzler

Sorry but I won't support war mongering corporate whores so I voted for the anti-war, pro-democracy, pro-environment, anti-corporate candidate representing the only international party on the planet: David Cobb of the Green Party.

Oh yeah, we also have Patricia LaMarche as our VP candidate, the only gender balanced ticket in the race.

Three Presidential elections now and 3 times Greens have offered a gender balanced ticket. Way to go Greens!!!

Lies, damn lies and Statistics 29.Oct.2004 11:52


From Mark Twain: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics."

While I am happy Kerry is up by 5 points right now, I'm not sure I'd risk voting for a
third party candidate right now. What if large republican blocks have been underpolled? What
if the republicans have encouraged people to lie to pollsters?

Remember, this is not the vote count.. this is the poll.
I think.. I hope.. that the polls are undercounting Kerry votes. But I don't KNOW...
and until I know, I don't think there's any such thing as a safe state.

If you really believe in your heart you need to send a message with a third party vote this year,
do so, but there is a huge difference between Bush admin (strong, hawkish advisors and gullible, fanatic,
maybe even mentally ill president,) and Kerry admin (mentally competent president, no more
Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Cheney, Ashcroft.)


Polling Truth: Bush in Trouble 29.Oct.2004 13:12

polls extremely inaccurate and misleading


Don't be confused by the tide of contradictory voter surveys. Bush is in trouble, writes US blogger Markos Moulitsas


Bush/Cheney Burial In Nov. 2 Landslide


[this is an updated, expanded version of a previous posting,  http://portland.indymedia.org/en/2004/10/300396.shtml]

yes, I acknowledge that this is pure prognostication, and that it can't take into account the aberrational, empirical effects of rampant vote fraud, 'terrorist' attack, Registered Democrats voting en masse for Bush/Cheney like they did in 2000 (8 million nationwide), Osama's resurrection, etc. but -

here are some possible reasons and evidence why:
Voter registrations are WAY UP from the year 2000, for example in areas like Philadelphia and states like Ohio and Florida.

The New York Times analysis of county-by-county data shows that in Democratic areas of Ohio -- primarily low-income and minority neighborhoods -- new registrations since January have risen 250 percent over the same period in 2000. In comparison, new registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas.

Those younger than 30 who are concerned about a potential draft are also registering in increased numbers. These new registrants are not considered in most polling. A growing number of young people use cell phones as their primary phone number. This further diminishes the possibility that their support for either candidate would be reflected in polling data. Thus, they are the great unknown in this election.

Turnout in this year's early Democratic primaries was way up. Nearly twice as many Democrats turned out for the 2004 Iowa caucuses as they had for those held in 2000. The turnout in New Hampshire for the Democratic primary was also extraordinarily high, up 29 percent from the previous turnout record set in 1992--the year Bush's father lost his reelection bid.

Many 'traditional' Republicans [talk to them, some of them are my co-workers and neighbors and may be yours too] are holding their nose and voting Kerry/Edwards this year - otherwise Nader/Camejo or the Libertarian ticket. Evangelical Christians  http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/102804C.shtml are also having their doubts about the Bush/Cheney ticket.

Bush has significantly less support from Democrats than Ronald Reagan did. Even Bill Clinton, hated by so many Republicans, had more friends among members of the opposition party.

Bush had 90% of the Florida Muslim vote in 2000 (60,000 votes). Zogby's recent poll showed that 75% of them now favor Kerry.

With just one exception, every president to win a second consecutive term has done so with a larger electoral margin than his initial victory. The least likely result this November is another close election.


Election Rides on the 917 Vote

by Jimmy Breslin


Not one cell phone has been called during the presidential campaign. This is because there is no method for polling cell phones. Nobody has their numbers. Nor do they know who the users are, where they live and what they do. You have 170 million phones and you talk to none of them and then try to say you know what the public is thinking.

The newspaper and television polls aren't worth glancing at. They are taken of people who have land lines, as your house phone is known. Many millions have cell phones and land lines both, and can be reached. But there are about 40 million between 18 and 29 who only use cell phones. They are heavily Democratic. The usual view is that they vote sparingly. This time, with the word "draft" in the air the young breathe, and with a general and intense dislike of Bush, the number should be higher than usual. Even if it is disappointing, the numbers are so huge to begin with that Kerry will be your president on a 917 vote.


A Kerry Landslide?
Why the next election won't be close.

By Chuck Todd


[read entire article - a basic point of comparison is Carter 1980 = Bush 2004]


Voter dissatisfaction indicates it won't be close
Bogus polls mask landslide in the making

by Byron Williams



Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

October 19, 2004

Electoral College Update  http://politicalwire.com/archives/2004/10/19/electoral_college_update.html

Here are the latest electoral vote tallies which are updated daily (270 needed to win):

Electoral Vote Predictor: Kerry 284, Bush 247
The Hotline: Bush 227, Kerry 214
2.004k.com: Kerry 289, Bush 232
Slate: Kerry 284, Bush 254
Race 2004: Kerry 218, Bush 205
MyDD: Kerry 316, Bush 222


from a listserv  http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/pipermail/lbo-talk/Week-of-Mon-20041004/022497.html discussing voter turnout and polarization:

>expanding on a post of mine from about a month ago:
>Curtis Gans -- the 'dean' of experts on the American electorate -- was
>interviewed on C-SPAN on Sept.10.
>Among the things he mentioned:
>1 He's estimating a turnout of between 58 and 60 % (between 118 and 121
>million voters). This would be the highest turnout since '68, and would
>be significantly higher than in recent elections.
>2 He said the election could be close, but if it wasn't this would be to
>Kerry's benefit (i.e. Kerry would win big).
>3 Women will probably have a 4% greater share of the vote than men (this
>is because there are 2 % more women in the population to begin with, and
>because a greater percentage of women vote than do men).
>4 Every poll of voter interest shows 10-15% higher than at this time four
>years ago. He attributed this to, "the Bush administration has served as
>a lightening rod. There is a polarized public around the president's
>5 "It is almost INCONCEIVABLE that people will not come out. It is an
>emotional election. It is despite the campaigns, a big picture election."
>(an exact quote).
>There have beem various reports recently of unprecedented numbers of
>people registereing to vote for the first time, and that the overwhelming
>majority of these people are being registered by Democratic Party activists.
>The 'anecdotal' -- i.e. non-poll -- evidence points to a good possibility
>of a Kerry landslide.
>xxx xxxxxx

There was a John Zogby article posted here that came to much the same
conclusion. Several months ago I came to expect this as the probable
outcome as well. We will soon find out. It is always so interesting how
people interpret the same data in such different ways. Was the data
available much different three months ago vs. five months ago? Somewhere
within that time frame I switched from thinking W would probably win to
expecting Kerry to win with a good possibility of a landslide.

xxxx xxxxxxxx


on Bush and the undecided voters, the National Review's Joel C. Rosenberg had this to say about an October 7 Zogby poll [while simultaneously acknowledging John Zogby's reputation for accuracy]:


"But by far the most interesting and disturbing finding in his poll is that "among undecided voters, only 15% feel the President deserves to be re-elected, while 39% say it is time for someone new."

What if the undecideds break 2-to-1 against the president less than 30 days from now? We could be looking at a Kerry landslide.

. . . If he's right today, it means Republicans could be in for a horrific surprise on November 2."


Top 35 Trends that say Kerry will Take the White House in November:


1) Bush must lead by 4%: ....

2) The 'Cell Phone Polling' Phenomenon:....

3) Zogby is the Most Accurate Pollster: ....

4) Kerry Has Large Lead in Swing States: ....



more on poll accuracy, likely / registered voters


Why John Kerry will win
by Rick Volpe

October 13, 2004

. . .

The primary flaw in the sampling process this time around is the polling of likely voters over registered voters.

All across the country, but especially in crucial swing states like Ohio and Florida, voters are registering in record numbers. And it's not just a few hundred more here or there than in 2000; it is to the point where town halls are hiring temps to handle the massive overflow. Of course both parties are claiming huge success in registering new voters, but the largest surges by far have been in the low-income areas that are heavily populated by minorities. You don't have to be Dr. George Gallup to know that Bush doesn't have a lot of support in these places. Likely voters are defined as people who have voted repeatedly in the past, and therefore none of these people who are swarming the registration booths are counted in the polls.


Bush could win popular vote but lose the election

By Michael Forsythe and Alex Tanzi
Friday, October 22, 2004 - Page updated at 12:00 A.M.
Bloomberg News


President Bush is poised to gain 2 million votes this year in the three most-populous U.S. states: California, Texas and New York. None of those ballots will help him win re-election.

With national polls showing a deadlocked race between Bush and Democratic nominee John Kerry, polls in individual states show Bush gains over his 2000 totals in some places he is already likely to win easily and in others where he is too far behind for his gains to matter.

Bush's surge of support in states that aren't in play in this election could even put him in the position of his 2000 opponent, former Vice President Al Gore: winning the nationwide popular vote while losing the Electoral College and the presidency.

The scenario of "Bush wins popular vote, loses Electoral College is very real," said John Zogby, president of Utica, N.Y.-based polling firm Zogby International.

States where Bush needs votes include Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which advisers to the president and to Kerry, the four-term Massachusetts senator, agree will decide the election.



Ohio and Florida (plus Pennsylvania) Will Decide Selection '04



GOP Brownshirts Move to Crush Ohio Vote

With 20 electoral votes  http://www.electoral-vote.com/ at stake, Ohio is one of three pivotal states (along with Florida-27 and Pennsylvania-21) in this year's pResidential Selection.

The Republicans - led by Diebold CEO Walden O'Dell - have pledged to deliver Ohio's electoral votes to Bush/Cheney this year.

Republican Party officials in Ohio took formal steps yesterday to place thousands of recruits - paid $100 each - inside polling places on Election Day to challenge the qualifications of voters they suspect are not eligible to cast ballots. They have also formally challenged the validity of 35,000 voter registrations across the state.

Although latest polls show Kerry backed by 50 percent of likely voters and Bush by 46 percent, major Ohio newspapers have backed Bush, including the Cleveland Plain Dealer, whose nine-person editorial board decided earlier this week that it wanted to endorse Kerry but Publisher Alex Machaskee, who has final say, decided on Bush.

Ohio voters have also reported fake phone calls to "change polling place", *not* from their board of elections.

No Republican has won the presidency without also winning Ohio.




Diebold Voting Machine Controversy in Ohio



Walden O'Dell--chief executive of Diebold Inc. and active in the re-election effort of President Bush--sent an Aug. 14 letter to central Ohio Republicans asking them to raise $10,000 in donations in time for a Sept. 26 Ohio Republican Party event at his home, saying that he is "committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year."

O'Dell attended a strategy pow-wow with wealthy Bush benefactors - known as Rangers and Pioneers - at the president's Crawford, Texas, ranch earlier this month. The next week, he penned invitations to a $1,000-a-plate fund-raiser to benefit the Ohio Republican Party's federal campaign fund - partially benefiting Bush - at his mansion in the Columbus suburb of Upper Arlington.


Ohio GOP challenges 35,000 on voter rolls

Ohio Newspapers: 'Coerced' To Endorse Bush?

Cleveland 'Plain Dealer' Decides to Not Decide

Discussions at the Cleveland Plain Dealer to resolve an impasse between the paper's editorial board and its publisher about who to endorse for president have ended with a Tuesday morning editorial announcing the paper would back neither Bush nor Kerry.

Ohio Voters Report Fake Calls: "change polling place"

South Dakota GOP Operatives Who Resigned Over Vote Fraud Scandal Move to Ohio


Twelve Ways Bush Is Now Stealing The Ohio Vote

by Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman
October 27, 2004

The Republican "November Surprise" to steal the 2004 election is in full force here in Ohio. With polls showing a dead heat, the GOP is staging an all-out attack on a fair vote count in the Buckeye State.

Here are a dozen ways they're doing it:

* Under an archaic Ohio law, both the Republican and Democratic Parties, or any slate of five candidates, may embed official election challengers inside polling places. The New York Times reported on Oct. 23 that the Republican Party intends to place thousands of lawyers and other GOP faithfuls inside the polls to challenge voters. Republican insiders confide here that the key goal is to jam lines and frustrate new voters. The GOP apparently figures many voters in key Democratic precincts won't wait in line more than 15 minutes to vote. This is certain to be a major tactic in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County and other Democratic strongholds. The GOP is not planning to challenge voters in Republican districts.

* The Republican party has sent letters challenging thousands of Franklin County students who are registered to vote absentee. Franklin County is home to Columbus, the state's largest city and its capitol. Though it is also home to Ohio State University, thousands of local students go to schools outside the county or state. The GOP apparently does not want their votes counted. This unprecedented mass challenge has prompted the Franklin County Board of Elections, whose director is a conservative Republican, to reserve the large Veterans Memorial Auditorium downtown to process the challenges this Thursday, as John Kerry comes to town with Bruce Springsteen. The County has told thousands of students that if they don't appear in Columbus to answer the GOP challenges, they may lose their right to vote.

* The Franklin County Board of Elections has called or written an undetermined number of voters who obtained absentee ballots, challenging their addresses. In at least one case, after a series of angry phone calls, the Board admitted there was nothing wrong with the address in question and re-instated voting rights. The voter in question was a registered Democrat. His wife, an independent at the same address, was not challenged. It is unclear how many others have been wrongly knocked out.

* Even if they are counted, Franklin County's absentee ballot forms are rigged in ways strikingly reminiscent of those in Florida 2000. On many absentee forms, Kerry is listed third on the list of presidential candidates. But the actual number you punch for Kerry is "4." If you punch "3" you've just voted for Bush. Sound familiar?

* Franklin County's right wing Elections Director is insisting on e-voting machines which have malfunctioned in at least two Congressional elections, and which have no paper trail. The November issues of Popular Science and Popular Mechanics Magazines ran the following headlines on their covers, respectively: "E-vote emergency: And you thought dimpled chads were bad'" and "Could hackers tilt the election?" Vigorous protests against the paperless machines have been staged here, but many will be used, rendering a meaningful recount impossible.

* In four other Ohio counties, the notorious Diebold company, whose CEO Wally O'Dell has pledged to deliver Ohio's votes to Bush, will provide the e-voting machines to count votes without any paper trail while using proprietary "secret" software. O'Dell lives in the wealthy Columbus suburb of Upper Arlington and is a major Bush donor.

* Twenty GOP-dominated Ohio counties have given wrong information to former felons about their voter eligibility. In Hamilton County, home of Cincinnati and the Republican Taft family, officials told numerous former felons that a judge had to sign off before they could vote, which is blatantly false.

* Franklin County, which normally cancels 2-300 registered voters a year for felony convictions, has sent at least 3500 cancellation letters to both current felons and ex-felons whose convictions date back to 1998. The list includes numerous citizens who were charged with felonies but convicted only of misdemeanors.

* Republican Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell has reversed a long-standing Ohio practice and is barring voters from casting provisional ballots within their county if they are registered to vote but there's been a mistake about where they are expected to cast their ballot. In this year's spring primaries, Blackwell allowed voters to cast provisional ballots by county, even if they were in the wrong precinct. But this fall, such voters will have to leave the wrong precinct and find their way to the right one. Blackwell hopes to succeed Republican Bob Taft as governor, and has labored hard to install e-voting machines with no paper trail, to give the statewide contract to Diebold, and to take a long series of steps apparently designed to help hand Ohio to George W. Bush. Blackwell is being widely compared to the infamous Katherine Harris, who handed Florida to George W. Bush in 2000 and was rewarded with a safe Congressional seat.

* The Columbus Dispatch (which has endorsed Bush) and WVKO Radio have both documented phone calls from people impersonating Board of Elections workers and directing registered voters to different and incorrect polling sites. One individual was falsely told not to vote at the polling station across the street from his house, but at a "new" site, four miles away. Under Blackwell's new rules, such a vote would not be counted.

* In Cincinnati, some 150,000 voters were moved from active to inactive status within the last four years for not voting in the last two federal elections. This is not required under Ohio law, but is an option allowed and exercised by the Republican-dominated Hamilton County Board of Elections.

* Secretary of State Blackwell ruled that any voter registration form on other than 80-pound weight bond paper would not be accepted. This is an old law left over from pre-scanning days. Many voters who had registered on lighter paper, had their registration returned, even though the forms had been officially sanctioned by local election boards.

No Republican has ever won the presidency without carrying Ohio. This year the GOP seems determined to win it, no matter what they have do to the electoral process.

Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman are co-authors of GEORGE W. BUSH VERSUS THE SUPERPOWER OF PEACE and IMPRISON GEORGE BUSH, from www.freepress.org.


RED Sox and the ECLIPSE of Bu$h

den W. O'Dell, Chairman of the Board, President, and CEO of Diebold, Inc.
den W. O'Dell, Chairman of the Board, President, and CEO of Diebold, Inc.
Ohio - Florida - Pennsylvania
Ohio - Florida - Pennsylvania

don't forget 29.Oct.2004 13:14

the west coast doesn't count

Remember how they always try to call the election before our polls are even closed out here on the west coast? Not to mention Hawaii. All this talk of Oregon being a sure thing makes me feel very nervous, like it's a ploy to encourage a lot of voters to skip turing in their ballot.
We need your votes, votes for Kerry, if we are to get this Bush guy out of office. And even that might not do the trick, but we're not gonna stand for four more years of Bush/Chency neo-fascism. There will be demonstrations in the streets and much more, before that happens- again.

The fat lady has laryngitis 29.Oct.2004 21:51

Bison Boy

In all that massive post above, there's really only one link that you need to look at:  http://www.electoral-vote.com

That site has the latest poll data and good analysis of it. It's author doesn't see Oregon as safe.

Oregon is not a safe state. Yes, if I were a betting man I'd bet Oregon will go for Kerry... but I wouldn't bet much. This race is every bit as tight as the last one in Oregon, and the difference between first and second place four years ago was just a few thousand votes.

Don't assume anything is done until the polls close, and even then we may have to wait to discover the winner.

If you haven't filled out your ballot, do it now. It's too late to mail it... take it to an *official* ballot drop site. (Beware of several UN-official ballot drop boxes scattered around Portland:  http://communique.portland.or.us/04/10/we_dont_like_these_very_much.html)

Bison Boy Has MYOPIA. 29.Oct.2004 22:19


"It's author doesn't see Oregon as safe."

--uuuhhh, Bison Boy -

the 'author' (which he isn't) of the  http://www.electoral-vote.com/ web site does NOT "say" anywhere that "Oregon is not safe".

In fact, there are NO such written statements about "safeness" of ANY state at his site.

it's an ONGOING PROJECTION of electoral votes, which changes from day to day according to aggregates in various national and regional poll data.

that's what this site is: a data processing projection of what the electoral vote might turn out to be, based on current polled results (and there are other sites out there besides this one doing exactly the same thing).

go there tomorrow, and on Sunday, and on Monday, to see the coloration of the state of Oregon on his site map - and the coloration of many other variable states such as OH, FL, PA, MN, AR, and others that have been vacillating/swinging day-by-day and poll-by-poll.

You'll also notice that the red-to-blue coloration 'rating system' of how each state is supposed to be leaning its electoral votes for K or B, based on polled projections, is according to the following seven-point scale:

Strong Kerry (blue)
Weak Kerry (solid - light blue)
Barely Kerry (border only - light blue)
Exactly tied (blank white)
Barely Bush (border only - pink)
Weak Bush (solid - pink)
Strong Bush (red)

(Oregon is currently colored solid - light blue, BTW - as is California and Washington. They each have been that way for the past 3 days, at the site.)

what "Bison Boy" needs to look at 29.Oct.2004 22:23

is his Eyeglass Prescription:


Published on Thursday, October 21, 2004 by Long Island / NY Newsday

Election Rides on the 917 Vote

by Jimmy Breslin

On Sept. 15, there were 168,900,019 cell phones in America, according to the cell phone institute in Washington.

Not one phone user was called by the political pollsters reporting with such marvelous accuracy on the Bush-Kerry race.

A month later, on yesterday afternoon, there now were 170,475,160 cell phones in America, according to the cell phone institute.

In one month, 1,575,000 new cell phones have been bought.

Not one cell phone has been called during the presidential campaign. This is because there is no method for polling cell phones. Nobody has their numbers. Nor do they know who the users are, where they live and what they do. You have 170 million phones and you talk to none of them and then try to say you know what the public is thinking.

A month ago, pollster John Zogby said he had discontinued telephone polls because cell phones had made any and all results meaningless. Now if you pay attention to polls, you are insane.

Yesterday, the polls showed a Bush surge. It never happened because they were basing it on thin air. There also were figures showing Kerry winning states like Ohio in the Midwest. They came up with the percentages without calling one cell phone of the millions and millions of them in the area. I believe nothing.

Everybody maintains that the two candidates are in a statistical dead heat. Nobody knows that. With a huge number of new registered voters, overwhelmingly of color, and young, and with 40 million using cell phones, the only thing going on in this election is how many times George Bush goes under before he drowns on Election Day. As he should. He is the worst president we have had, maybe ever.

Yesterday on the East Side of Manhattan, they counted 40,000 new registrations. You didn't need 10 of them, for this is a Kerry district, and state. But it showed the level of animosity toward Bush. I was at a book signing at Sarasota the other day, and 400 Democrats were there. A rare number. The next day, they raised $100,000 when Joe Biden appeared for Kerry. Over the last several weekends, groups have come down from Connecticut to go door to door for Kerry in Tampa. I saw cell phones everywhere.

The newspaper and television polls aren't worth glancing at. They are taken of people who have land lines, as your house phone is known. Many millions have cell phones and land lines both, and can be reached. But there are about 40 million between 18 and 29 who only use cell phones. They are heavily Democratic. The usual view is that they vote sparingly. This time, with the word "draft" in the air the young breathe, and with a general and intense dislike of Bush, the number should be higher than usual. Even if it is disappointing, the numbers are so huge to begin with that Kerry will be your president on a 917 vote.

Older people are Bush voters and they are deficient in making cell phone calls. When it buzzes, chimes or rings with an incoming call, they are breathless.

Yet the newspapers and television are running polls as if they are excerpts from textbooks at MIT. They are taken with 20th century methods for a 21st century political race. "Our scientific poll is based on interviews with 532 people, and has an error margin of 3 percent, one way or the other. Of course that makes 6 percent, but that's close enough for us."

They are lies by numbers. The reporters basing their coverage on these polls are lazy, unimaginative and irresponsible. That everything is based on an untruth could be the reason for the dreadful election coverage. What they write or say so often has nothing to do with the times in which they are supposed to live and report.

In the week ending Oct. 17, there were 23 American soldiers killed in Iraq. I saw no prominent mention anywhere. If there were 23 policemen killed in New York in a week, the city would shut down. If there were 23 police officers killed in the nation in a week, it would be a national calamity.

But the 23 dead American soldiers went virtually unmentioned. I watch the "Today" show and they say that now we are going to see all the good things happening in Iraq. Insanity.

I think common sense says that the issue of the campaign is the dead soldiers who are in Iraq because George Bush lied to get us into the war. Younger people might feel a little closer to a casket holding the young.

They talk on cell phones, and when they talk they say, "Where are you? Did you hear George Bush saying the jobs are improving? Where? And for how much? He is making this a $9-an-hour country. Did you hear his idea on Social Security? We can give it to a stock broker to steal. Did you hear him saying a word about the guys getting killed in Iraq? No. He wants to make like it never happens. So long. I'm going into the building, and I'm going to lose you."

Oregon's 7 electoral votes 29.Oct.2004 23:27

are NOT

going to "decide" pResidential Selection '04.


it'll be decided by the electoral votes in THREE (3), and ONLY THREE (3) states:


p.s. here are a few other 'electoral predictor' sites, and their current projections:


If the election were held today we project:

Kerry wins the presidency with 284 electoral votes. Bush places second with 254 electoral votes.

Kerry wins the popular vote with 55,082,593 votes (49.35%). Bush places second with 54,588,211 votes (48.91%).

If Colorado ballot initiative #36 passes, 4 electoral votes switch from Bush to Kerry. The new total is 288 for Kerry, 250 for Bush.

Current polling suggests the amendment is likely to fail.

In addition, poll data suggests that the loser in Maine (currently Bush) is unlikely to pick off an electoral vote.


The Hotline Electoral Scoreboard

BUSH: 217
KERRY: 184

[neither with 270 needed to win]

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Electoral Votes
Needed to Win: 270 Electoral Votes

All states (based on most-current poll only*):
Bush = 280
Kerry = 258

Solid states (most-current poll is beyond statistical Margin of Error):
Bush = 168
Kerry = 150

Number of swing states (most-current poll is within Margin of Error): 21
10 swing states voted for Bush in 2000
11 swing states voted for Gore in 2000


Election Scorecard
Where the presidential race stands today.
By William Saletan, David Kenner, and Louisa Herron Thomas
Updated Tuesday, Oct. 26, 2004, at 4:40 PM PT


If the Election Were Held Today

Winner Bush
276 Electoral Votes
168 solid, 66 likely, 42 iffy

Loser Kerry
262 Electoral Votes
149 solid, 85 likely, 28 iffy


Electoral College Meta-Analysis (election.princeton.edu)
From Prof. Sam Wang of Princeton University.
Saturday, October 30, 2004 at 1:00AM EDT


Predicted median with undecideds: Kerry 283 EV, Bush 255 EV (probability map)

Median outcome, decided voters only: Kerry 265 EV, Bush 273 EV (probability map) (Trends to 10/12)

95% confidence interval, decided voters only: +/-39 EV for each candidate (Kerry >=270EV: 41%, n.s.)

Popular Meta-Margin among decided voters (explanation): Bush leads Kerry by 0.2%



Current Projected Tally:

Electoral Votes: Bush 296, Kerry 242
Popular Vote: Bush 49.9%, Kerry 48.3%


Chris's Electoral Projection


Kerry Bush
Solid-Lean 242 222
Toss-up 69 5
Total 311 227
States changing hands from 2000: FL, OH and NH to KerryThe seven Closest States
Florida Kerry +1.12
Iowa Kerry +2.50
Minnesota Kerry +4.41
Nevada Bush +1.89
New Mexico Kerry +0.06
Ohio Kerry +1.30
Wisconsin Kerry +2.24

Harm? 31.Oct.2004 22:23

Bison Boy

Geez. Here I thought you were going to point out my misplaced apostrophe. How embarrasing.

Fair enough, the electoral-vote.com author does not "say" anything. But his site counts Oregon as among the swing states, and often has counted Oregon among the states that are probably too close to call.

The thing is, though, that I see less potential harm in falsely assuming Oregon is NOT safe than I do in falsely supposing Oregon to be safe. I'd love to support a minor party, but this madman has got to go first.