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Bush/Cheney Burial In Nov. 2 Landslide

[this is an updated, expanded version of a previous posting,  http://portland.indymedia.org/en/2004/10/300396.shtml]

yes, I acknowledge that this is pure prognostication, and that it can't take into account the aberrational, empirical effects of rampant vote fraud, 'terrorist' attack, Registered Democrats voting en masse for Bush/Cheney like they did in 2000 (8 million nationwide), Osama's resurrection, etc. but -

here are some possible reasons and evidence why:
Voter registrations are WAY UP from the year 2000, for example in areas like Philadelphia and states like Ohio and Florida.

The New York Times analysis of county-by-county data shows that in Democratic areas of Ohio -- primarily low-income and minority neighborhoods -- new registrations since January have risen 250 percent over the same period in 2000. In comparison, new registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas.

Those younger than 30 who are concerned about a potential draft are also registering in increased numbers. These new registrants are not considered in most polling. A growing number of young people use cell phones as their primary phone number. This further diminishes the possibility that their support for either candidate would be reflected in polling data. Thus, they are the great unknown in this election.

Turnout in this year's early Democratic primaries was way up. Nearly twice as many Democrats turned out for the 2004 Iowa caucuses as they had for those held in 2000. The turnout in New Hampshire for the Democratic primary was also extraordinarily high, up 29 percent from the previous turnout record set in 1992--the year Bush's father lost his reelection bid.

Many 'traditional' Republicans [talk to them, some of them are my co-workers and neighbors and may be yours too] are holding their nose and voting Kerry/Edwards this year - otherwise Nader/Camejo or the Libertarian ticket.

Bush has significantly less support from Democrats than Ronald Reagan did. Even Bill Clinton, hated by so many Republicans, had more friends among members of the opposition party.

Bush had 90% of the Florida Muslim vote in 2000 (60,000 votes). Zogby's recent poll showed that 75% of them now favor Kerry.

With just one exception, every president to win a second consecutive term has done so with a larger electoral margin than his initial victory. The least likely result this November is another close election.


Election Rides on the 917 Vote

by Jimmy Breslin



Not one cell phone has been called during the presidential campaign. This is because there is no method for polling cell phones. Nobody has their numbers. Nor do they know who the users are, where they live and what they do. You have 170 million phones and you talk to none of them and then try to say you know what the public is thinking.

The newspaper and television polls aren't worth glancing at. They are taken of people who have land lines, as your house phone is known. Many millions have cell phones and land lines both, and can be reached. But there are about 40 million between 18 and 29 who only use cell phones. They are heavily Democratic. The usual view is that they vote sparingly. This time, with the word "draft" in the air the young breathe, and with a general and intense dislike of Bush, the number should be higher than usual. Even if it is disappointing, the numbers are so huge to begin with that Kerry will be your president on a 917 vote.


A Kerry Landslide?
Why the next election won't be close.

By Chuck Todd


[read entire article - a basic point of comparison is Carter 1980 = Bush 2004]


Voter dissatisfaction indicates it won't be close
Bogus polls mask landslide in the making

by Byron Williams




Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

October 19, 2004

Electoral College Update  http://politicalwire.com/archives/2004/10/19/electoral_college_update.html

Here are the latest electoral vote tallies which are updated daily (270 needed to win):

Electoral Vote Predictor: Kerry 284, Bush 247
The Hotline: Bush 227, Kerry 214
2.004k.com: Kerry 289, Bush 232
Slate: Kerry 284, Bush 254
Race 2004: Kerry 218, Bush 205
MyDD: Kerry 316, Bush 222


from a listserv  http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/pipermail/lbo-talk/Week-of-Mon-20041004/022497.html discussing voter turnout and polarization:

>expanding on a post of mine from about a month ago:
>Curtis Gans -- the 'dean' of experts on the American electorate -- was
>interviewed on C-SPAN on Sept.10.
>Among the things he mentioned:
>1 He's estimating a turnout of between 58 and 60 % (between 118 and 121
>million voters). This would be the highest turnout since '68, and would
>be significantly higher than in recent elections.
>2 He said the election could be close, but if it wasn't this would be to
>Kerry's benefit (i.e. Kerry would win big).
>3 Women will probably have a 4% greater share of the vote than men (this
>is because there are 2 % more women in the population to begin with, and
>because a greater percentage of women vote than do men).
>4 Every poll of voter interest shows 10-15% higher than at this time four
>years ago. He attributed this to, "the Bush administration has served as
>a lightening rod. There is a polarized public around the president's
>5 "It is almost INCONCEIVABLE that people will not come out. It is an
>emotional election. It is despite the campaigns, a big picture election."
>(an exact quote).
>There have beem various reports recently of unprecedented numbers of
>people registereing to vote for the first time, and that the overwhelming
>majority of these people are being registered by Democratic Party activists.
>The 'anecdotal' -- i.e. non-poll -- evidence points to a good possibility
>of a Kerry landslide.
>xxx xxxxxx

There was a John Zogby article posted here that came to much the same
conclusion. Several months ago I came to expect this as the probable
outcome as well. We will soon find out. It is always so interesting how
people interpret the same data in such different ways. Was the data
available much different three months ago vs. five months ago? Somewhere
within that time frame I switched from thinking W would probably win to
expecting Kerry to win with a good possibility of a landslide.

xxxx xxxxxxxx


on Bush and the undecided voters, the National Review's Joel C. Rosenberg had this to say about an October 7 Zogby poll [while simultaneously acknowledging James Zogby's reputation for accuracy]:


"But by far the most interesting and disturbing finding in his poll is that "among undecided voters, only 15% feel the President deserves to be re-elected, while 39% say it is time for someone new."

What if the undecideds break 2-to-1 against the president less than 30 days from now? We could be looking at a Kerry landslide.

. . . If he's right today, it means Republicans could be in for a horrific surprise on November 2."


Top 35 Trends that say Kerry will Take the White House in November:


1) Bush must lead by 4%: ....

2) The 'Cell Phone Polling' Phenomenon:....

3) Zogby is the Most Accurate Pollster: ....

4) Kerry Has Large Lead in Swing States: ....


homepage: homepage: http://www.electoral-vote.com/
address: address: Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 271 Bush 257

more on poll accuracy, likely / registered voters 21.Oct.2004 23:10


Why John Kerry will win
by Rick Volpe

October 13, 2004

. . .

The primary flaw in the sampling process this time around is the polling of likely voters over registered voters.

All across the country, but especially in crucial swing states like Ohio and Florida, voters are registering in record numbers. And it's not just a few hundred more here or there than in 2000; it is to the point where town halls are hiring temps to handle the massive overflow. Of course both parties are claiming huge success in registering new voters, but the largest surges by far have been in the low-income areas that are heavily populated by minorities. You don't have to be Dr. George Gallup to know that Bush doesn't have a lot of support in these places. Likely voters are defined as people who have voted repeatedly in the past, and therefore none of these people who are swarming the registration booths are counted in the polls.

Bush could win popular vote but lose the election 23.Oct.2004 16:03

By Michael Forsythe and Alex Tanzi

Friday, October 22, 2004 - Page updated at 12:00 A.M.
Bloomberg News

President Bush is poised to gain 2 million votes this year in the three most-populous U.S. states: California, Texas and New York. None of those ballots will help him win re-election.

With national polls showing a deadlocked race between Bush and Democratic nominee John Kerry, polls in individual states show Bush gains over his 2000 totals in some places he is already likely to win easily and in others where he is too far behind for his gains to matter.

Bush's surge of support in states that aren't in play in this election could even put him in the position of his 2000 opponent, former Vice President Al Gore: winning the nationwide popular vote while losing the Electoral College and the presidency.

The scenario of "Bush wins popular vote, loses Electoral College is very real," said John Zogby, president of Utica, N.Y.-based polling firm Zogby International.

States where Bush needs votes include Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which advisers to the president and to Kerry, the four-term Massachusetts senator, agree will decide the election.

Daily Endorsement Tally: On 'Super Sunday,' Kerry Makes Huge Gains 24.Oct.2004 10:46

By Greg Mitchell

Published: October 23, 2004 updated continually

New York Senator John Kerry continued his raid on newspapers that backed President George W. Bush in 2000, grabbing 17 new "flip-flops," as well as The Washington Post. He has now won over at least 28 papers that went for Bush in 2000, while Bush has only earned two Gore papers.

However, Bush got a real prize in Ohio, the Columbus Dispatch.

Kerry now leads Bush 113-71 in endorsements in E&P's exclusive tally, and by about 14.4 million to 8.6 million in the circulation of backing papers.

And more setbacks for Bush: The Detroit News, which has never endorsed a Democrat, and backed Bush in 2000, announced that it would sit out the 2004 election, not happy with either candidate. The New Orleans Times-Picayune, another Bush fan from 2000, said the same thing today in an editorial titled "No One to Champion." A third Bush backer in 2000, the Harrisburg Patriot-News, also declared neutrality today.

In gaining the Orlando Sentinel (one of the switches from Bush), Kerry completed a sweep of major papers in top swing state, Florida.

The Chicago Sun-Times, the Los Angeles Daily News, and the Memphis Commercial-Appeal were among the 17 papers which backed Bush in 2000 but today chose Kerry.

But Bush gained the key Columbus paper. In an editorial it revealed it was "less than enthused about the choices." It said it was troubled by Bush's fiscal policies and the war in Iraq but said that neither Kerry's Senate record nor "his shifting positions during the presidential campaign inspire confidence that he would provide the strong, resolute leadership America desperately needs."

Bush also picked up the Houston Chronicle and Denver Post, the latter in a switch from Gore in 2000. William Dean Singleton, now the publisher of that paper, is known as a strong Bush supporter. His MediaNews Group also owns the L.A. Daily News, which Singleton allowed to go for Kerry.

KERRY SWITCHES: Besides those already mentioned, Kerry grabbed 13 other papers from the Bush 2000 column, with the endorsement of the Allentown (Pa.) Morning Call; the Stamford (Ct.) Advocate; the Journal News (White Plains, N.Y.); the Quad City Times in Davenport, Iowa; The Rockford (Ill.) Register-Star, the Contra Costa (Ca.) Times; Iowa City Press-Citizen; Worcester (Ma.) Telegram & Gazette; the Ventura County (Ca.) Star; the Wausau (Wi.) Daily Herald; the Billings (Mt.) Gazette; Walla Walla (Wa.) Union-Bulletin; and the Bangor (Maine) Daily News.

OTHER KERRY PICKUPS: Kerry also gained the backing of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and Centre Daily Times in hotly-contested Pennsylvania; the Bergen Record, Newark Star-Ledger, The Times of Trenton and Gloucester County Times in surprisingly close New Jersey; the Toledo Blade in Ohio; the Raleigh News & Observer and Asheville Citizen Times in North Carolina; Newsday, the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle, the Buffalo News and Glens Falls Post-Star in New York; the Des Moines (Iowa) Register; Louisville (Ky.) Courier-Journal; Las Vegas Sun and the Reno Gazette-Journal in Nevada; the Daily Southtown in Illinois; Hampton Roads (Va.)Daily Press; the Nashville Tennesean; Santa Fe New Mexican; The Journal Times in Racine, Wisconsin; the Bismarck (N.D.) Tribune, The Journal Gazette in Fort Wayne, Indiana; the Macon (Ga.) Telegraph; the Waco Tribune-Herald and Lufkin Daily News in Texas; The Coloradan in Ft. Collins; the Decatur (Ala.), Daily; Kennebec (Me.) Journal; The Republican in Mass.; Durango (Colo.) Herald; Lansing State Journal in Michigan; the Portsmouth Herald and Nashua Telegraph in New Hampshire; the Hutchinson News (Kansas.

BUSH BACKING: Bush, however, retained the Austin American-Statesman and Houston Chronicle in his home Texas; the Cincinnati Enquirer and Cincinnati Post; the Hartford (Ct.) Courant; Long Beach (Ca.) Press-Telegram; Arkansas Democrat-Gazette; the Chronicle of Centralia, Wash.; the Express-Times of Easton, Pa.; Bowling Green (Oh.) Daily News; The Ledger of Lakeland, Fla.; the Enterprise-Record of Mocksville, N.C.; the Daily News-Record in Harrisonburg, Va., the Fargo (ND) Forum.

The New York Daily News appeared to endorse Kerry today but it was hard to tell: It did nothing but bash Bush for several paragrpahs without once mentioning his opponent's name.

Meanwhile, E&P has learned from several sources at the Cleveland Plain Dealer that the paper's nine-person editorial board decided earlier this week that it wanted to endorse Kerry but Publisher Alex Machaskee, who has final say, has decided on Bush. The paper backed Bush in 2000.

This has caused consternation in some quarters at the Plain Dealer, with sources telling E&P that the endorsement editorial, which was expected to run Sunday, was put off. One editor told E&P that some at the paper at pushing for, at least, a dissenting pro-Kerry column.

Greg Mitchell ( gmitchell@editorandpublisher.com) is editor of E&P.

Women, independents help Kerry erase 9-point deficit 24.Oct.2004 10:54

By David Robinson

Arkansas News Bureau
Sunday, Oct 24, 2004

LITTLE ROCK - Sen. John Kerry has pulled even with President Bush in Arkansas after being down 9 points, according to a new poll for the Arkansas News Bureau and Stephens Media Group.

Kerry, a Democrat, and the Republican Bush each received 48 percent support from likely voters surveyed Monday through Wednesday by Opinion Research Associates of Little Rock. A poll two weeks earlier gave Bush a 52 percent to 43 percent lead, just within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Populist Party candidate Ralph Nader got 1 percent in the new poll, and 3 percent were undecided.

"It suggests to me that Kerry may have some momentum, now," said Ernest Oakleaf, who owns Opinion Research with his wife, Zoe.

"Beautiful," said John Emekli, Arkansas spokesman for the Kerry-John Edwards campaign. Emekli had disputed the first poll's results because other polls had shown the race to be closer.

Republicans remain confident that while the race may be close, Bush will win Arkansas' six electoral votes, said Mitchell Lowe, executive director of the Bush-Dick Cheney Arkansas campaign.

Oakleaf noted that the first Arkansas News Bureau poll, conducted Oct. 4-6, followed the first of three presidential debates, and the second poll came after all three.

Kerry gained ground in the second poll among independents, women and voters with higher incomes. But Bush's lead remained dominate with higher income voters, whites and males, according to the poll.

Political scientists around Arkansas also cited the debates as critical to the change.

Other polls in the last two weeks also have shown a tightening race, suggesting a trend that tracks national surveys.

"It looks like a surge for Kerry," said Hal Bass, political science professor at Ouachita Baptist University in Arkadelphia. "It appears to be a delayed reaction to Kerry's strong showing in the debates, which may have given some assurance that he is up to the job."

Andrew Dowdle, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, said most polls showed that Kerry won the first and third debates. Other factors include mixed economic news and continuing uncertainty in Iraq, Dowdle said.

Opinion Research surveyed 500 people likely to vote in the Nov. 2 election - 125 from each of Arkansas' four congressional districts.

Four factors stand out when comparing the two polls:

-In the first poll Bush led among independent voters, 69 percent to 22 percent. But Kerry has closed the gap, with Bush now leading 54 percent to 39 percent, meaning his 47-point margin among independents is now 15 points.

-The percentage of women supporting Kerry grew by 6 points, to 53 percent, while women's support of Bush dropped from 47 percent to 42 percent, further widening the gender gap.

-Support for Kerry in southern Arkansas' 4th Congressional District grew by 9 percentage points from the first poll to the second. In the first poll, Bush had a 56 percent to 39 percent lead in the largely Democratic district, but he trails Kerry in the second poll 48 percent to 46 percent.

-Kerry's favorable rating went from 48 percent to 53 percent and Bush's favorable rating dropped from 55 percent to 51 percent.

The late move toward Kerry among independents may be signaling what typically happens to incumbent presidents on Election Day, political scientists said.

"Undecideds break for the challenger," said Janine Parry, associate professor of political science at the University of Arkansas and director of the university's annual Arkansas Poll.

"It suggests that that process may already be happening."

She said it's not a stretch to assume that undecided voters are independents.

Averaged over several election cycles, the incumbent's vote will be slightly more than 1 percentage point less than their final polling numbers. The challenger will get an average of four points more than their final polling numbers, Parry said.

The second poll showed 3 percent of voters are undecided compared to 5 percent in the first poll.

"History would suggest that the president is going to do slightly worse than the polls would tell us, and Kerry will do significantly better than the polls," Parry said, adding that some analysts argue that the historical reference may be no good given the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and the Iraq war.

Dowdle said that while the shift reflected in the poll is good news for Kerry, independent voters are more volatile and could shift back to Bush by Election Day.

Parry and Dowdle said the wide swing in the 4th District's results from the first to the second poll may be due to a statistical glitch in either poll. That's possible because only 125 people in each congressional district are surveyed, which increases the margin of error.

Dowdle, who specializes in presidential campaigns and elections, said the second poll appears to be more on track given the largely Democratic 4th District.

Oakleaf was surprised that southern Arkansas was so strongly behind Bush in the first poll, but at the time he and political scientists had chalked it up to a cultural disconnect between those voters and Kerry.

Other demographics:

-Bush leads in central Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District 49 percent to 47 percent, and Northwest Arkansas' 3rd district 53 percent to 45 percent. Kerry leads in eastern Arkansas' 1st District 51-46 and the 4th District, 48-46.

-Among those identifying themselves as liberals, 24 percent would vote for Bush and 75 percent for Kerry. Moderates support Kerry 61 percent to 33 percent and conservatives support Bush 67 percent to 30 percent.

-Kerry gets more support among households earning under $50,000 a year while Bush leads among those earning above that amount.

For those earning between 30,000 and $40,000, Kerry leads 58 percent to 39 percent and for those earning between $40,000 and $50,000, he leads 54-44.

Among households earning $50,000 to $75,000 a year, Bush leads 64 percent to 36 percent, and for those earning more than $75,000 his lead is 62 percent to 38 percent.

-By race, Bush leads among whites 53 percent to 43 percent. Among blacks, Kerry leads 87 percent to 12 percent.

-By education, Bush leads among those with more education, although for college graduates, Bush has only a 49 percent to 48 percent advantage.

-Kerry, who did not win any age-group category in the first poll, now leads among those 25-35 and the 65-plus age groups.

Other Arkansas polls have shown the race to be tightening.

A Zogby International poll by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette on Oct. 14 showed Bush with 46.2 percent, and Kerry with 44.6 percent, a statistical tie.

A Survey USA poll on Oct. 17 showed Bush leading 51 percent to 46 percent, within the margin of error.