Voter registrations are WAY UP from the year 2000, for example in areas like Philadelphia and states like Ohio and Florida.
The New York Times analysis of county-by-county data shows that in Democratic areas of Ohio -- primarily low-income and minority neighborhoods -- new registrations since January have risen 250 percent over the same period in 2000. In comparison, new registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas.
Those younger than 30 who are concerned about a potential draft are also registering in increased numbers. These new registrants are not considered in most polling. A growing number of young people use cell phones as their primary phone number. This further diminishes the possibility that their support for either candidate would be reflected in polling data. Thus, they are the great unknown in this election.
Turnout in this year's early Democratic primaries was way up. Nearly twice as many Democrats turned out for the 2004 Iowa caucuses as they had for those held in 2000. The turnout in New Hampshire for the Democratic primary was also extraordinarily high, up 29 percent from the previous turnout record set in 1992--the year Bush's father lost his reelection bid.
Many 'traditional' Republicans [talk to them, some of them are my co-workers and neighbors and may be yours too] are holding their nose and voting Kerry/Edwards this year - otherwise Nader/Camejo or the Libertarian ticket.
Bush has significantly less support from Democrats than Ronald Reagan did. Even Bill Clinton, hated by so many Republicans, had more friends among members of the opposition party.
Bush had 90% of the Florida muslim vote in 2000 (60,000 votes). Zogby's recent poll showed that 75% of them now favor Kerry.
With just one exception, every president to win a second consecutive term has done so with a larger electoral margin than his initial victory. The least likely result this November is another close election.
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Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 291 Bush 247