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Kerry/Edwards To Win In Landslide

yes, I acknowledge that this is prognostication, and that it can't take into account the aberrational, empirical effects of rampant vote fraud, 'terrorist' attack, Registered Democrats voting en masse for Bush/Cheney like they did in 2000 (8 million nationwide) etc. but -

here are some possible reasons and evidence why:
Voter registrations are WAY UP from the year 2000, for example in areas like Philadelphia and states like Ohio and Florida.

The New York Times analysis of county-by-county data shows that in Democratic areas of Ohio -- primarily low-income and minority neighborhoods -- new registrations since January have risen 250 percent over the same period in 2000. In comparison, new registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas.

Those younger than 30 who are concerned about a potential draft are also registering in increased numbers. These new registrants are not considered in most polling. A growing number of young people use cell phones as their primary phone number. This further diminishes the possibility that their support for either candidate would be reflected in polling data. Thus, they are the great unknown in this election.

Turnout in this year's early Democratic primaries was way up. Nearly twice as many Democrats turned out for the 2004 Iowa caucuses as they had for those held in 2000. The turnout in New Hampshire for the Democratic primary was also extraordinarily high, up 29 percent from the previous turnout record set in 1992--the year Bush's father lost his reelection bid.

Many 'traditional' Republicans [talk to them, some of them are my co-workers and neighbors and may be yours too] are holding their nose and voting Kerry/Edwards this year - otherwise Nader/Camejo or the Libertarian ticket.

Bush has significantly less support from Democrats than Ronald Reagan did. Even Bill Clinton, hated by so many Republicans, had more friends among members of the opposition party.

Bush had 90% of the Florida muslim vote in 2000 (60,000 votes). Zogby's recent poll showed that 75% of them now favor Kerry.

With just one exception, every president to win a second consecutive term has done so with a larger electoral margin than his initial victory. The least likely result this November is another close election.

- - -

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 291 Bush 247
 http://www.electoral-vote.com/

 http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2004/0405.todd.html

 http://portland.indymedia.org/en/2004/10/300120.shtml

homepage: homepage: http://www.workingforchange.com/article.cfm?itemid=17880

I agree 20.Oct.2004 20:25

defeat leftist defeatism

we were not ment to loose all of the time

we are right on the issues, morality and logic.

no to mention that they (conservatives and dominant culture) have been wrong time and time again.

they used to be strong. now they are wrong.



get loud and be proud. we shut down the freeways trying to warn the fools.
they didn't listen then, but make them listen now.

Not Just the Draft 20.Oct.2004 21:32

Shawn

"Those younger than 30 who are concerned about a potential draft are also registering in increased numbers."

To say that a potential draft is the only thing youth are concerned about is innacurate. I'm Co-Chair of the Multnomah Youth Commission, and I can tell you there's a whole world of worries on our mind besides a draft. The MYC has worked on teen pregnancy, military recruitment in schools, increasing the accesibility and funding to school food programs, organizing youth oriented political forums, and more. We've organized mentor programs, community fairs with hundreds in attendance, liason programs between the county/city and homeless youth, and more.

So, yeah, it's not just the draft.

Turnout and a Kerry Landslide 21.Oct.2004 19:52

from a listserv

>expanding on a post of mine from about a month ago:
>
>Curtis Gans -- the 'dean' of experts on the American electorate -- was
>interviewed on C-SPAN on Sept.10.
>Among the things he mentioned:
>
>1 He's estimating a turnout of between 58 and 60 % (between 118 and 121
>million voters). This would be the highest turnout since '68, and would
>be significantly higher than in recent elections.
>2 He said the election could be close, but if it wasn't this would be to
>Kerry's benefit (i.e. Kerry would win big).
>3 Women will probably have a 4% greater share of the vote than men (this
>is because there are 2 % more women in the population to begin with, and
>because a greater percentage of women vote than do men).
>4 Every poll of voter interest shows 10-15% higher than at this time four
>years ago. He attributed this to, "the Bush administration has served as
>a lightening rod. There is a polarized public around the president's
>policies."
>5 "It is almost INCONCEIVABLE that people will not come out. It is an
>emotional election. It is despite the campaigns, a big picture election."
>(an exact quote).
>
>There have beem various reports recently of unprecedented numbers of
>people registereing to vote for the first time, and that the overwhelming
>majority of these people are being registered by Democratic Party activists.
>
>The 'anecdotal' -- i.e. non-poll -- evidence points to a good possibility
>of a Kerry landslide.
>
>xxx xxxxxx

There was a John Zogby article posted here that came to much the same
conclusion. Several months ago I came to expect this as the probable
outcome as well. We will soon find out. It is always so interesting how
people interpret the same data in such different ways. Was the data
available much different three months ago vs. five months ago? Somewhere
within that time frame I switched from thinking W would probably win to
expecting Kerry to win with a good possibility of a landslide.

xxxx xxxxxxxx


National Review Online - What If Zogby's Right? 21.Oct.2004 20:57

[Joel C. Rosenberg]

on Bush and the undecided voters, the National Review had this to say about an October 7 Zogby poll [simultaneously acknowledging James Zogby's reputation for accuracy] :

"But by far the most interesting and disturbing finding in his poll is that "among undecided voters, only 15% feel the President deserves to be re-elected, while 39% say it is time for someone new."

What if the undecideds break 2-to-1 against the president less than 30 days from now? We could be looking at a Kerry landslide.

. . . If he's right today, it means Republicans could be in for a horrific surprise on November 2."