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government selection 2004

Latest Tally - Bush 331 - Kerry 207

Latest Tally - Bush 331 - Kerry 207
Many states are really too close to call, but Kerry needs something substantial otherwise it is not even going to be that close.
That's A Little More Like It! :) 20.Sep.2004 12:15

Mistletoe Angel

Now we're getting somewhere here. :)

You're keeping an open mind and judgement like you should while also not flat-out being pessimistic saying "All is lost!".

We're all in this together and we have to be optimistic, be upbeat, have faith that once again Kerry, who has had a past reputation for being a comeback kid on multiple occasions in his run for Senate in Massachusetts to going from a shady presidential candidate in the shadow of Dean and Gephardt to winning Iowa and New Hampshire in the primaries.

It's true that the number of electoral votes for Bush is up from the previous update. Big deal! :) Numbers are just numbers, and you have to look at the big picture.

On the last update, Florida was a "Weak Bush" state where Bush had a 6% lead in that poll. NOW, it's a "Barely Bush" state, which shows Florida a dead-heat state with a weak 1% lead for Bush.

Look at South Carolina! LOL! It has become a "Weak Bush" state. Now, I know for a fact Bush will win this state, but tha's not the point. The point is, the polls are all over the place. Virginia, West Virginia, they're showing weakness for Bush too. In the past, I saw a California poll showing Bush winning by 7% in that state. The very next poll, Kerry was winning by 17%.

I still find it remarkable New Mexico is a "Strong Kerry" state now. It doesn't necessarily mean or guarantee Kerry will win by a double-digit margin this November, but state polls consistently show Kerry with a far bigger advantage there than in 2000 when Gore won by less than 500 votes there. That's symbolic to me, it means a great deal.

Doesn't that tell you something? The polls are whacked. The only poll that matters is the November 2nd one, where "turnout" is the key word. And the turnout, my friend, consists of hundreds of thousands of voters who never took part in any single poll.

Be optimistic, for the good and health of it. And even if November 2nd shows a weak turnout, hey, at least we tried, and it feels much better to have a good feeling than a bad feeling.

Noah Eaton

While We're On The Subject... 20.Sep.2004 12:31

Mistletoe Angel

...I'd like to bring back a blast from the past.

On  http://www.electoral-vote.com, the moderator found results from 15 polls taken in the final three weeks before the November 2000 election.

Take a look at the spreadsheet. You'll see only TWO of those 15 polls showed Gore would win the 2000 election (which he did by over 0.5%, not to mention really won the electoral count despite the Katherine Harris/Database Technologies/Jeb Bush scandal). TWO polls were tied, and all the other eleven showed Bush would win from a range of two points to as much as a commanding six points.

That tells me no one really knows the outcome of this race for good like in 2000 and this remains a competitive race, which Kerry can pull it off.

Noah Eaton