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Peak Oil is Here

Remember the movie 'Independence Day'? How the alien ships arrived over major cities around the world and a countdown began towards apocalypse? Well that's kind of where we are today except the mainstream media and world governments are hiding the threat from view while the US regime under Bush 2 is running rampant across the globe to secure as much as it can before the news breaks worldwide. Apparently we've run out of cheap oil.
Repost of an excellent report from Melbourne Indymedia.

Read the original for linked references and comments:  http://www.melbourne.indymedia.org/news/2004/06/72000_comment.php

It's easy to get confused with all the mad news stories going around nowadays, especially given the overwhelming criminal compliance of our corporate and public media and the government propaganda it pedals, you'd hardly think we're all actually involved in a global war, an illegal attack on Iraq, in extra-legal detention and torture, and in the ongoing mass murder of 10 000+ innocents while our world plummets on towards a global warming catastrophe. The biggest news in the world at the moment however is also the most suppressed, and it is actually quite frightening. It's suppressed because it completely obliterates all the ludicrous reasons we've been fed about why we're in Iraq and Afghanistan, and because once it becomes self-evident the global stock markets will panic and crash.

Obviously it's all about the neo-colonial theft of Iraqi oil but the motivation driving this theft is rather more urgent than just funnelling oil into Haliburton's maw. Apparently, according to oil industry people and independent geologists, Hubbert's Peak has possibly already arrived with a plateau in global oil production this very year, midpoint peak by 2008 and terminal decline setting in from 2010. You may have noticed a growing number of stories about it but for those of you who don't know, peak oil occurs when half the oil in the ground around the world has been pumped out. From that moment on the remaining oil is harder to extract, so they pump water and natural gas into the oil field to maintain pressure as the production in barrels per day declines. Using more energy to pump it out and less of a flow means oil is more expensive to produce and there's increasingly less of it to go around. Or in other words, and it's just a simple geological fact, there's no more cheap oil.

The notion of 'peak oil' has been around for a while ever since Hubbert predicted it for the year 2000 back in the late 50's. The recent predictions are based on geological data from the 2000 US Geological Survey and after the latest Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO  http://www.peakoil.net ) conference in Berlin in late May attended by oil company geologists, market analysts, members of the European Parliament and international media this story is starting to break all over the internet just this last few weeks. It's not a conspiracy myth, it's not the ravings of disaffected lefties, it's science. Dr Colin Campbell has recently revised the ASPO estimate for peak oil and gas production to just 4 years from now:

"The present model departs from earlier ones in recognition that the Middle East no longer has sufficient spare capacity to discharge a swing role. A volatile epoch of recurring price shocks and consequential recessions dampening demand and price is now regarded as more likely, with terminal decline setting in and becoming self-evident by about 2010".

There are lots of recent 2004 reports speculating about the Saudi's ability to increase production suggesting that the peak plateau may already have arrived with midpoint by 2008. OPEC is apparently pumping at its full rate, while everyone else from the Russians, US, North Sea to our own oil fields are apparently depleting already. The first major oil shock could be as early as the fourth quarter of this year and some analysts suggest that the Saudi's are on the verge of a collapse in their major Gawar oil field, the largest in the world.

According to what I've read, if this all turns out to be true then we're currently on the threshold of a gigantic transition in the structure of our modern globalised industrial civilization, a transition that humanity seems completely unprepared for. More than just the price of petrol at your local bowser, cheap oil means cheap road/rail haulage and international shipping as well as air travel, it means cheap food produced by mechanised industrial agriculture with its petrochemical pesticides and fertilizers, more than just underwriting the value of the US dollar and their domestic economy it upholds the global stock markets and banking system. Cheap oil has paid for our modern lifestyles since WW2. The end of cheap oil will mean a lot more than $4 per litre and rising, just to drive a car around.

Beyond the current oil wars and the short term economic effects of unstable oil supply and prices over the next 5 years, peak oil threatens an irreversible global economic decline that will force a massive, radical and sustained change in our way of life as we transition to alternative energy sources and the economic/political order they support.

The cost of everything will rise and rise with the poorest of us the first to start suffering. A terminal economic decline will begin with a recession in Australia the size of the one that occurred in WW2, and this possibility is already being discussed in our mainstream media. Think an end to public welfare across the board, food stamps and eventually food riots, massive rising unemployment, the collapse of Medicare and public hospitals, a severe crisis in the cost and delivery of water ... but at least the roads will be less congested, more room for the ultra wealthy and their gas guzzling limousines.

At worst peak oil could mean a complete global economic collapse sometime after 2010, middle class poverty and the breakdown of law and order, truly gigantic starvation in the third world and the unrestrained outbreak of global warfare with the risk of numerous 'limited' nuclear conflagrations. It could ultimately mean the extinction of the human species through global nuclear war and its companions famine and pestilence.

If you're a radical anarchist then quite possibly your time in the sun is coming very soon.

We need a government of the day that can honestly face this global energy crisis and work towards a coordinated international transition to alternative and sustainable energy sources apart from coal and nuclear energy as soon as possible.

Unfortunately it appears that current political and corporate leaders around the world are incapable of an honest and open response to the problem of peak oil, let alone global warming and other related ecological disasters in waiting that are fueled by our exponentially growing consumption of fossil energy. Far from facing the inevitable threat of peak oil, our current government's oil friendly energy policy, theft of East Timorese oil and participation in the illegal war in Iraq keeps us in lock step with the Bush administration's militarist regime.

Responding to this looming terminal oil crisis by collaborating in the mass murder of upwards of 50 000 Iraqi civilians and soldiers in order to gain strategic control of the Persian Gulf oil fields is probably the most criminally dangerous act imaginable in the circumstances. And it's us liberal Anglo democracies that have done it.

My question to the Indymedia network is what potential exists here to organise around this global problem and help get this 'Peak Oil' message out? With the likelihood that oil prices will never again fall much below $US40 a barrel but on the contrary will inevitably keep rising as peak sets in the time is right for the truth to start making a whole lot of awful sense to a lot more people.

An Australian federal election is imminent, perhaps as early as August, in which Howard stands to win an implicit mandate for our involvement in a global oil war with no end. The real election issue is do we want global total warfare as a way of life or international cooperation in dealing with the impending collapse of our modern industrial civilisation?

Perhaps now is the time for all anti-globalisation activists to come together and fight the propaganda war currently being waged on us by the corporate media and mainstream political parties, using the new media weapons at the disposal of Indymedia. There is an editorial policy but is there any sort of consensus of opinion nationally and internationally amongst the Indymedia crews about the threat of peak oil and can Indymedia coordinate its activities and agenda on a national and international level?

What sort of relations can be built with local youth and student groups and other fringe dwellers focusing on an information campaign about peak oil as the underlying problem fuelling globalisation, oil wars and the disaster of global warming?

Some possibilities for action are: Encourage people to vote against Howard's response to peak oil; encourage the stencil and graffiti artists to go political about it; organise ongoing poster/leaflet campaigns; form letters to government, corporate and union functionaries; online petitions; letters to the editor; indie 'end time' gigs; sit ins; rallies and whatever else comes to mind.

The central message is simple - Peak Oil is Here - everything else from corporate and governmental interference in our daily lives and the rape of the environment, to Howard's use of concentration camps for 'illegal aliens' and the prosecution of an international war crime in Iraq, is a consequence of that simple geological fact and the end of the cheap energy that fuels globalisation. If 60's activism revolved around 'make love not war' and the atrocity of Vietnam this generation is faced with nothing less than the possibility of the end of our modern industrial civilisation, a global apocalypse.

Ideas can be powerful, especially if they're true and most especially if they involve an overwhelming threat to a peoples well being. That's how the government's propaganda campaign on 'terror' works, and its principles are based on Goebbels Nazi propaganda machine. Instead of spin and machination though what you have on your side is scientific truth.

homepage: homepage: http://www.melbourne.indymedia.org/news/2004/06/72000_comment.php

It's about time... 25.Aug.2004 08:16

Aware

someone posted about Peak Oil. It's real, and it's already started. Hubbert's peak was set into motion the day we started taking oil out of the ground (in Pennsylvania I believe).

Google "Peak Oil" and check out the sites. Watch the crash as it happens. And, prepare for the worst. Seriously.

Links and news here 25.Aug.2004 08:35

MK


Arimthmetic, Energy and Population 25.Aug.2004 09:56

Jim Lockhart eagleye@PhilosopherSeed

This is the test of a very popular presentation given By Abert Bartlett, retired Professor of Physics.

Bartlett Presentation


When he was in town I taped his leture and made up an audio file of it. Below is the write up for the presentation and a link to the audio file. Incredible!

AUDIO FILE: ARITHMETIC, ENERGY AND POPULATION-Effects on the Future of Humanity.

Presentation given on 8/13/02 by Professor Albert Bartlett, nuclear physicist, and Emiterus Professor of Physics, University of Colorado.
Professor Barlett is a charismatic nationally known speaker and an expert in resource evaluation and analysis. He has published a large number of professional articles on the mathmatics of exponential growth, energy usage, fossil fuel reserve estimates, and the effects of population growth on the future of humanity. Worldwide, he has given well over 1000 public talks on these subjects.
Sponsored by Alternatives to Growth Oregon
Excellent and informative. Given with accompanying overhead graphics, but I think that the lessons will not be lost in an audio only presentation. The Professor moves along rather quickly, and if some of the information gets by you, there's plenty more examples and applications soon to follow.
Examples of exponential growth abound. For instance, at 7% inflation, in 60 years: a 55 cent gallon of gasoline would cost $35.20; $2.50 for a movie would be $160.00; a $15.00 sack of groceries would be $960.00, etc. Professor Barlett uses these comparisons to demonstrate our usage of oil and coal reserves, as well as the true extent of current and future population growth. He also shows how both the media and our fatuous leaders don't have a clue about the true meanings of what can only be called the 'sacredness' of growth. Audio file is just under 1 hour, and I lost about 1 minute of the last 4 minutes or so due to a tape change. Bummer!

Arithmetic Energy and Population.


This was also a program turned in for cablecasting at MCTV and PCMTV. Both facilities have replayed it nuemerous times in the last two years. If there is interesat in it I can resubmit it for scheduling.


If it's not here, it's only a few years out. . . 25.Aug.2004 10:09

Hal E. Burton

NPR ran no fewer than three related stories.

One on the fine for Shell's restatement of reserves -- replacement rate now estimated at only 80 percent.

One on the Fed opening of exploration leases in western states -- land equivalent to some three states in square mileage (sorry, don't recall which three, but I think it was Montana, Idaho and Utah).

Third was an interview with T. Boone Pickens who is buying oil futures now at $50/bbl for resale in 2011, and, one presumes, with the intent that there will be a margin for profit.

Well, it's only ENERGY, so if E=MC*MC, it's just half of, well . . . EVERYTHING! 25.Aug.2004 10:16

Hal E. Burton

NPR had three related stories 8/25/04 on Morning Edition.

1. Shell's fine for reserve restatement. New reserve replacement rate at only 80 percent.

2. Opening of western state exploration leases which equals the land mass of three states.

3. Interview with T. Boone Pickens on the peak itself. He's buying futures now for 2011; so his experience and expertise means anything, figure $50+ here out, but factor in inflation and and his interest rate sacrifice (he could put the money in CDs) and you've got to be in the realm of $70 to $71/bbl. < http://www.npr.org/rundowns/segment.php?wfId=3870191>

Nothin' but good times ahead!

It's the same old damnable lie 25.Aug.2004 10:18

don't believe it

So Rockefellar's monopoly on energy is complete? He meant it when he proclaimed competition was a sin.
Ever since Rockefellar's company, Standard oil, took control of oil, industrial oil- based products replace non- oil based products.

This is all the peak oil is about is command and control of resources, people included.

There is enough energy to power all of our needs and the scarcity is TOTALLY manufactured by those who stand to benefit. Alternative sources of information not controlled by the Rockefellar foundations, think-tanks, universities and publications will show this to be a carefully constructed fraud.

If one has any doubt and wants to read a short testimonial on this fraud read Lindsey Williams book "The Energy Non Crisis". Also independent oil industry specialists have exposed this fraud.

So stop believing the lie perpetrated by the Rockefellar syndicate it may be an old lie but it keeps getting life breathed into it by naive believers.

See the the later posting on Peak Oil, too. . . 25.Aug.2004 10:26

Hal E. Burton

Pity about Alternatives to Growth Oregon. I've been an Andy Kerr fan since he when he was working in Arcata (where we put one of the first Greens into office in the whole U.S. of A., thank you very much!)

Fixin' the link 25.Aug.2004 10:36

Jim


It's NOT the same old damnable lie 25.Aug.2004 10:38

Non-cornucopian

re: don't believe it

So all those dry holes the majors keep punching are just for show?

So global discoveries really haven't been declining for 30 years?

OPEC is really a puppet of US Petroleum industry?

You would probably argue against greater transparency in the industry as well.

ASPO is working to bring greater transparency to the industry, but cornucopians are not.

Don't Believe It - Please cite your sources 25.Aug.2004 10:47

MK

I have been studying this issue for months, in detail, and have yet to be convinced that "peak oil" is bogus. I would really like your opinion to reflect the facts! It just does not hold up to either the geological or business/economics evidence.

The oil business, like any other publicly owned business, is incented and legally obligated to accurately lay out their assets - in this case their oil reserves. If anything, their incentive is to over-estimate, not under-estimate their reserves. Share holders would prefer greater, not lesser reserves. Shell recently got into trouble by over-estimating reserves. (Interestingly, the new Shell president is speaking out about global warming.)

The main idea that presents oil as a renewable and sustainable energy resource, rather than non-renewable, is Thomas Gold's theory of abiotic oil creation. I am not a scientist, but I found Gold's work to contain several obvious leaps of logic. Gold has some good credentials, but his abiotic work, and other works, have not stood up to peer review.

If you can provide links to your information sources I will post that info on my web page.


2005 rather than 2008? 25.Aug.2004 10:55

layman

Last night OPB had a segment on Peak Oil in which they said that some experts are now saying it may peak as early as 2005! You can probably listen to this segment by going to the OPB website.

Peak Oil is the Least of our Problems 25.Aug.2004 13:45

Steve S stevens@hevanet.com

According to Ross Gelbspan in Boiling Point, global warming is THE great danger to civilzation. With the exception of a few global warming denyers (most of whom are funded by the oil and coal industry), scientists agree the global warming is here, intensifying, and caused by greenhouse gases emitted through the consumption of carbon based fuels (coal and oil).

Most importantly, unless we reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 70% (yes thats 70%) very soon, civilization will be in a world of hurt. Gelbspan's timetable for reduction is 2018. Even then, it may be too late to prevent cataclysmic climate change.

Check out the book or check out the article in the most recent Nation magazine. Also, the Pentagon has published a scary piece about global warming.

So forget about peak oil. We need to move to a non-carbon based economy. And we need to build a movement...one that goes beyond the usual environmental movement suspects and brings together a wide range of participants - from all sectors of society. And it needs to be international in scope.

Global warming will not be solved by recycling, buying efficient cars, turning down your thermostat or individual action in general - even though these actions are all worthwhile. It requires a movement to bring about change on an international scale. Then after we get that problem solved...

unnamed spokesman for GPCI... 25.Aug.2004 15:38

this thing here

"Look folks, we here at Gigantic Petroleum Consortium Incorporated find all of this talk very amusing.

First off, unlike what many anti-petroleum action groups will tell you, oil is NOT a finite resource. Everyday, more and more oil fields are being found all over the surface of the earth.

For example, new oil fields have been discovered approximately 300 miles beneath the earth's surface. Of course, at that depth, the temperature and pressure has rendered the oil into nothing but a gas, but this is only a minor technical problem. There's been a new discovery of an oil field right at the bottom of the Marianas Trench, 35,000ft. beneath the ocean's surface. And in fact, oil fields have been discovered on Mars. Of course, we at GPCI don't have the technological capabilities yet to even begin to exploit these new dicoveries, and we're unsure how getting oil from mars to the earth will effect the price, but this is simply a minor little problem. Give us another 20 or 30 years, and we'll have our pumps going all over the solar system.

Even if peak oil were possible, which it isn't because we all know oil is a renewable resource, meaning that supply always meets demand no matter what, what other alternatives does our society have?

Solar power is a non functional pipe dream. The idea that man can make power from the sun is obviously ludicrous. Hydrogen power is also inconceivable. The idea that there might be some other way of moving an automobile from point A to point B without an internal combustion engine producing exhaust and using 100 year old technology is an obvious joke. If it works, why change it? Wind power is just a dream. The notion that wind can make energy is the kind of thing only a tin foil hat wearing fool could think of. And compared to pumping oil from 300 miles down, come on...

So the point is, we at GPCI really feel that you should stop listening to the dreamers and the freaks, and get back to reality. There is no other alternative except petroleum, now and forever and ever and ever and ever..."

Alternative fuels. . .oh, yeah, we got 'em. . . 25.Aug.2004 16:26

Hal E. Burton

1. Ethanol: the original model T was designed to use either gas or ethanol. Ford thought farmers would grow their own fuel.

2. LNG: These cars already exist; the shuttles at PDX run on the stuff.

3. Gasified coal: The Nazi's were running on the stuff, when Patton got to Germany, he drained the fuel from the tanks, put it in his own and headed to Berlin. . . And we've got more coal here on this continent than most anywhere.

4. Biofuels -- used french fry oil.

And leaves out the regenerative braking on the Prius and Honda hybrids that about doubles gas mileage (and the Prius is a rocket off the line, too!) much less other things that will stretch the supply of oil and make other fossil/quasi-fuels viable.

Now, the downside is that coral reefs are bleaching; glaciers are disappearing; the atmosphere is changing its composition but, hey, like the guy who jumped off the skyscraper said as he passed by my 12th floor window, "So far, so good!"

And the current political and corporate leaders roles in this ? 25.Aug.2004 20:08

Zippo

-
Modified Man
Modified Man

Alternative Mules 25.Aug.2004 20:19

Zippo

Might want to plant a window box or a few apple trees, too, Steve S.

Peace,

Zippo

Truthseekers read on 26.Aug.2004 09:13

peak oil myth

One more debunker on the peak oil myth

 http://joevialls.altermedia.info/wecontrolamerica/peakoil.html

myth? 26.Aug.2004 12:33

MK

Somehow I am not comforted by debunkers who write as though for a supermarket tabloid audience. Maybe they are correct and they have credible sources of information. I have not found them.

There are solutions 26.Aug.2004 17:16

indy

Check out www.newenergymovement.org. This movement is sponsoring a new energy forum with leading energy experts in Portland, Sept. 25-26. The new energy solutions go way beyond wind, solar etal. They are evolving from several sources--Tesla's universal energy, now called zero point or dark energy, cold fusion and an advanced hydrogen process. What Peak Oil means is that demand is or has outstripped the ability to deliver the oil. It is not about the supply, but the ability to pump and distribute the supply to an ever increasing oil hungry market. There has been almost no mainstream media attention given to international forums that are now exploring these energy options. Check them out for yourselves next month in Portland or just explore on the new energy website.

how lucky for us! 26.Aug.2004 20:17

no no no no no no

if -- ha ha ha ha ha -- if it's actually true that the Earth is conveniently "topping up" some oil fields for us -- heh he heh heh right -- then we're really hosed, because then there's really nothing stopping the capitalists from continuing to dump CO2 into the air until the Earth is just as uninhabitable as Venus.

Jesus Gawd.
this is their thesis
this is their thesis

Incredibly efficient solar power 28.Aug.2004 01:29

philanthrope

The global eco-system has evolved over billions of years to reach an incredible level of energy efficency, and it all begins with the lovely and "renewable" rays of the sun. Think about it. The energy I'm now using to type this, came to earth in a ray of light from the sun.

oil eaters 31.Aug.2004 18:42

g bruno

When oil aint cheap no more.
What about food?
The big problem is so much the Urea fertiliser, which is Joule-effective (ie Urea takes a lot of (NaturalGas) Joules, but it returns More Joules in extra growth.

Rather the whole system:Transport,packaging, storage, pesticides,herbicides,Tractors,trucks, fridges..taken as a whole is Way Negative Joule efficient.

There is the Big Myth that modern agriculture is higher "Yield" than traditional polyculture. Actually it has a negative "Yield". Traditional, labour intensive multi-crop with animals has a Much higher "Yield" per hectare. But it needs people on the land.

The PostPeak crash, it seems to me, will come from the Townships.. the billions of poor people who have settled around the megacities in the last few decades. They dont grow any food, they dont even gather roof water, they depend on central electric grid power. They are trying to climb on board the consumption train, just as its heads for a crash.

I reckon the rich white world will struggle on PostPeak, the big problem is from the couple of billion Township dwellers. Cuba is trying to grow food in City gardens, with some success, but its hard to see MexicoCity, Jakarta, Manila favelas/barrios quickly feeding themselves


Life After the Crash 31.Oct.2004 10:11

Scott

You all should check out this book: Life After The Oil Crash

the ebook is now online (but for only.. 3 more days)
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/downloads.html

Response to Steve Ongerth 02.Jun.2005 17:54

Matt Jackson

"The classic Peak Oil theorists are essentially Malthusian--believing that as supply grows, demand and consumption grow until the peak is crossed. Logic suggests that this is a gross oversimplification of the real world. Even oil-addicted societies can deploy methods designed to conserve the oil supply (as as done in the early 1970s, but later abandoned until the gas crisis of 1979)."

However, it should be noted that both events cited above caused massive logistical and economic problems that lasted years. It's been my experience that nobody in this world does anything about a problem until it bites them on the butt. The historical precedents are legion.

Alternative sources of energy will not have the power or availability in time to stave off massive social disturbances.

"Furthermore, gas-electric hybrid automobiles, such as the Toyota Prius (which I drive) or the Honda Insight, reduce gasoline consumption by as much as 67 - 75% per user. Suppose hybrid technology becomes the dominant automotive trend over the next ten years? The supply of oil will not change, but the demand and the consumption rates would plummet."

Where are the hybrid jets, service fleets, container ships, tractor-trailers, farming equipment, earth movers, etc.? As the price of oil rises, all goods and services that use the oil as fuel will go up as well. The domino effect of this will be felt by everyone, no matter how many of us drive hybrid passenger cars. A new hybrid car is greener, but it is also manufactured using processes that involve fossil fuels on a massive scale. They aren't grown from trees or transported to the dealership by horses.

"Most Peak Oil adherents argue that alternatives to oil are pipe dreams or false hopes. For example, they argue that bio-diesel will not mitigate the oil shortage, because bio-diesel crops require oil-based fertilizers to produce. I disagree. Organic farming methods can eliminate the need for fossil-fuel based fertilizers, but even if fertilizers are still needed, the use of oil for fertilizer is probably more efficient than the use of oil for internal combustion, so once again, the supply doesn't necessarily correspond directly to consumption. "

Bio-diesel is definitely a worthwhile idea and I like it for many reasons. However you need to check your facts about how our food is grown. Organic farming has lower yields and higher costs than current commercial farming methods. While I personally like organic farming, the lower yields result in higher food prices. The amount of land needed to grow crops for bio-diesel would most certainly displace land used for food. Not to mention the fact that the energy invested vs. the energy output is nearly a wash at the current time. In short, bio-diesel has a long way to go before being the savior of our society.

"Peak Oil alarmists argue that hydrogen is no better, because hydrogen is a carrier of energy and not a producer, and hydrogen requires more energy to extract than it saves in usage. Both of these claims, while technically true are utterly meaningless if they are placed in practical context. Oil is itself, a "carrier" of energy--not a producer; it, too, has to be extracted and that takes energy. Most of the energy required in extracting oil for use as an internal combustion engine fuel is derived from the burning of other fossil fuels. On the other hand, Hydrogen can be produced using renewable energy. As for hydrogen requiring more energy to extract than it saves, this claim is only true because the technology for its extraction as an automotive fuel is in its infancy. Petroleum oil also had its share of "growing pains" as a resource. Unlike hydrogen and renewables, however, fossil fuel technology is highly subsidized by the government."

Hydrogen can be made using electricity and the method to generate the electricity is up to you. However, the amount of power needed to make the quantities of hydrogen we would have to have to replace oil is more than we currently have. Running PV's and wind turbines all over the country won't be enough. This is why Bushie has made a push for nuclear power plants in his latest energy policy. Thousands of new nuclear power plants to produce the electricity necessary to make enough hydrogen for our needs. Sounds like a winner of an idea to me. ;)

Hydrogen has many drawbacks not the least being that the darn stuff has a nasty way of leaking out of just about any container it's in.

As far as fuel cells go, forget it. The fuel cells themselves use so many exotic and rare components that it will be a long time before anyone will be able to afford a car with one.

"Peak Oil alarmists argue that renewable energy could replace fossil fuels, but not before a serious economic (and perhaps societal) catastrophe, primarily because renewable energy technology cannot be developed fast enough to prevent it.

This pessimism (or perhaps deliberate fear mongering) is unwarranted. In the March / April issue of Solar Today, Donald W. Aitken, Ph.D. describes how Germany is on a course to generate all of its electricity from renewable resources by 2050. In fact, they are ahead of schedule. An abstract of the article is available here:  http://www.solartoday.org/2005/march_april05/Germany.htm"

Human history is not full of instances where major societal changes were smooth or non-disasterous. It would take a massive government effort to change the American lifestyle.

Germany is not an energy rich country and has little choice in the matter. The culture and social organization tends to help them in trying something new for their future energy needs. Germany is also a far smaller nation in both geographical area and population. They also have a huge, built up infrastructure for mass-transit that we do not. In short, probably a bad example of what America could expect for itself.

The best commercially available solar panels are about 16% efficient. With prices at about $4 a watt, this is just insanely cost prohibitive without massive government subsidies (read "taxes").

As far as hybrids in China go, 1.3billion people wanting hybrids is hardly a welcoming thought. The amount of energy used to manufacture and transport new cars is no small amount itself. Not to mention the amount of energy used to gather raw materials and transport them.

"Peak Oil assumes that oil has biotic origins; it may not."

This pretty much amounts to wishful thinking. I've read quite a bit on this and it does seem to be a discredited theory by just about every expert out there. The organic nature of oil is well founded and researched.

I thoroughly believe that Peak Oil is a real problem and one that requires attention. The ultimate solution to all of these problems is for people to simply use less electricity, live closer to work, ride a bike or mass-transit, and limit food intake. I am convinced that too few will do these things and Peak Oil will be the crisis that causes the collapse envisioned by most.

I guess I'm as pessimistic as the rest, but history has taught us that reacting to change is not a human strongpoint. I'm going with that more predictable track record.

oil storm 06.Jun.2005 22:05

truth or fiction

I would like to see more facts and less conjecture on the part of those who bleive that oil has not peaked. The only post that I can find that disagrees with Peak Oil is some snake oil salesman selling end of the world releigious gift cards. Nothing but the facts and the facts as I see it are that we are in deep trouble. That is not a scare tatic. I have three little girls and I want to know if they have a future? Why cant we develope renewable energy in this country. Why does the preseident want China and India to develope renewable energy? So the rest of the world can by-pass the United States again. Wow! No disrespect to the president, but he needs some new advisors. The ones that he has now are bought and paid for and really do not care about the average working man on the street. We have to make a reasonable living and right now it is really tough. We thought that from a historical perspcetive that we had made a lot of progress now only to throw it away becuse of greed. Americans need to wake up to this reality. If it is a lie and we have all the oil that we need, Americans are going to be very mad, if we do not have all of the oil that we need and we did not take steps to move towards renewable energy, then Americans are going to be mad. Either way American lose. Was Neal Bush the head of Colorado Savings and Loan. Are we not still paying for the Saving and loan scandals today. Former President Bush wants his youngest to run for Presidnet. I have an idea- why dont we just appoint him king? 32 years of BUSH. Come on folks. No one else in this great country of ours has any common sense?