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government selection 2004

List of states where votes may count this year

Short and simple, this is the list of states where your vote can make a difference. Ranked by order of importance (in other words, electoral vote weight). These are the states Nader has asked his supporters to vote for Kerry in, and if you don't live in these states see if you can get some sort of residency there before the elections to make a difference, rather than wasting your vote in a non-swing state.
1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Wisconsin
4. Louisiana
5. Oregon
6. New Hampshire
7. Minnesota
8. Missouri
9. Ohio
10. Nevada
11. Pennsylvania
12. Maine
13. Michigan
14. Arkansas
15. Washington
16. West Virginia
17. Arizona
18. Tennessee
Questions for poster 28.Jun.2004 13:27

jimmy

I don't understand the order of the states on your list.

Without doing any new research I know that Pennsylvania has 21 electoral college votes Ohio has 20 and Oregon has only 7. So why is Oregon higher on the list than Pennsylvania and Ohio? Please inform as to why 7 electoral college votes in Oregon have a higher "electoral vote weight" than other states.

Also, please document where and when Nader said that he wants his supporters to cast their votes for Kerry in swing states.

Are You Sure About That Teddy? 28.Jun.2004 13:51

get real

From  http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/06/25/politics/main626209.shtml

Ralph Nader insists he is in the presidential race for keeps. If President Bush wins again, so be it, he says. Though Nader thinks he'll hurt Mr. Bush more than help him.

In a candid discussion with CBSNews.com, Nader says he will not pull himself off ballots in key states, like Florida, no matter what. When pressed, he asserts that even if the polls prior to Election Day indicate clearly that his candidacy reelects Mr. Bush, he will not step aside for the good of the team, in order to help larger liberal causes.

"That's not my team," Nader says. "All they have been doing is losing state legislators, state offices, local offices, congressional offices and the presidency to the worst of the Republican Party, the Gingrich-Tom Delay type."

Ralph Nader is mad. He wants Democrats to earn his liberal backers. He refuses to give them away. And although he appreciates a willingness by Sen. John Kerry to reach out to him, the party itself has betrayed its political left for too long, in Nader's view.

"[President Bush] is going to self-destruct short of some October surprise," Nader says. "There is nowhere but down for him. There are going to be more casualties, more quagmires, more billions of dollars."

And if he's wrong, Nader asserts, it's the Democrats' own doing, a result of the party's cowardice to push liberal causes. His voice rising, he says, "If somebody did" what he is doing "20 or 30 years ago, maybe the Democrats would have shaped up."

Nader 28.Jun.2004 14:09

not for president

Oregon is a swing state. Anyone who has lived here for over ten years and been through an election or two has seen how our state votes on important issues. Oregon, like the other "swing" states is very polarized (which is the definition of the term "swing").
We have two Senators, one Dem. one Repub. Their votes in Congress often just cancel each other out.
Look at the issues (take just one- abortion) that the right is organized around and see how much the leadership (and dollars) of Oregonians have contributed to the support of right-wing causes nationally.
We have the rural areas consistently voting to eliminate rights for queer and trans people, we have dangerous right wing religously driven church-based organizations and militaristic neo-Nazi cults in Oregon.
Get a clue.
Look beyond Portland to what the rest of this state believes & remember that Oregon has a strong racist history with the KKK and other white supremicists(continuing into the present).
Armed with this knowledge, we should get with reality and organize within the actual political framework here, not like Oregon is some kind of liberal utopia existing apart from the rest of the nation.
Please, all you Nader supporters, take these facts seriously and carefully consider what Nader can possibly bring to this year's electoral circus.
Kerry is not the answer either, but we know what Bush will do and we've got to make sure (if possible) that he doesn't get a second term. To do that will take some hard work (and even then, the election may be stolen). But why make it easy for them to steal another election?
Think about all the time you are giving to Nader and imagine what all of that time, publicity and funding could do for one of the social causes that is struggling to move forward here in Oregon (abortion? gay rights?)
I say, I'd rather put my energy toward the issues than with yet another arrogant power-hungry white man.

possible resource 28.Jun.2004 14:21

for information on swing states

There's a blogger named David that has put together a map of swing states and some other information: it's at swingstateproject.com (or just Google "swing states" to find it).
Hope it's useful, might try to verify the statistics he uses, though.

the nader comment 28.Jun.2004 14:29

surfer

The Nader comment asking his backers to vote for kerry in swing states was on NPR three days ago. It was on this site a lot too, but since it was in the form of reposts it got sent to the selections page and not the front page. Nader calls them "safe" and "unsafe" states rather than "sing" or "battleground", but has repeatedly said Bush needs to go. Anybody that thinks Nader's campaign will hurt Bush is either insane, very isolated or a card-carrying GOP staffer.

As for the state list, I have seen the state list before, it is from Michael Moore's website and seems to be printed verbatim, and is accurate in calling each of those states "swing" states, even if a few are out of order. If you look up the 2000 results, each of these states is just a hair away from being a 50/50 split, and a handful of votes really could tip the state from republican to democrat. Or, in the case of Oregon, the other way (this state only went to Gore by around 1,000 votes if memory serves, and with the expected higer logger turnout this year is is expected to go to Bush by many politicos.)

Basically in this sham democracy we have, if you live in those listed states, you count. If not, go fuck yourself.

I think I know 28.Jun.2004 14:32

ex-cop

I think this list is weighted not on electoral votes, but by how close each state is to going "the wrong way." If Florida needs more work than New York, it would be put higher. It probably balances the amount of work needed with the electoral votes harvested to judge how much each state is worth working on.

Not for President can go Fuck itself 28.Jun.2004 15:21

Pendleton Queer

Christ,

One wonders at the abject stupidity of urbanized morons. You know -- the world does not end at the Cascade crest. As a former Seattlite (20 years in the U District) I saw just as much prejudice as I see here in Umatilla county. Your attitude is part of the reason the Republican party has been so successful in pitting working class rural folks against the "Big City Liberals."

"go fuck yourself" 28.Jun.2004 15:55

duh

That's what the vice president said on the senate floor a couple days ago, it was all over the news. D'ya think the "go fuck yourself" comment might have been meant as humorous?

Besides, nobody says the world stops at the cascades, this post is just about swing states, where votes can swing the state's electoral college delegates from one side to the other, and non-swing states, where the population is so overwhelmingly liberal or conservative that no amount of campaigning will make them flip to another side.

If this is about urban predjudice, Pendleton Queer, then why are places like Tennessee, West Virginia and that thriving expanse of urbanization, Missouri, on the list? Its about swing states, don't read too much into that. You might strain yourself.

Not voting for Kerry, not voting for Nader 28.Jun.2004 16:27

Libertarian

As far as I am concerned the Federal Governemnt should be dissolved. I am all for you folks in Oregon doing things the way you want. That is how folks down here in the South feel. I am in Arkansas, and most of the folks around here want you Northern Yankees to stay out of our business. I dont agree with most of the politics around here, but one thing is for certain, folks in the south fought the Federal Government once, and many are ready for round two.

taking all bets 29.Jun.2004 11:01

the gambler

I'll lay odds of 10 to 1 against Kerry winning Florida. Yes I know that Gore won Florida by 200,000 votes. Yes I know that 300,000 democrats voted for Bush in Florida in 2000. Yes I know that Bush hasn't bragged about his prospects in Florida in 2004 saying that "you can write it down". But I'm still willing to offer 10 to 1 odds thanks to the democrats focusing on Nader instead of electoral fraud will assure that the republicans will continue their "tricks" from 2000 and 2002 into 2004. 10 to 1, any takers?

Florida = "swing state" ?!? 01.Jul.2004 21:09

ha ha ha

that's a GOOD ONE.

you can be certain that Brother Jeb makes certain it "swings" in the RIGHT direction . . .

all this is BS anyway - did the "swing states" make a difference in 2000?

what about the 8 million Democrats who voted for Bush? were they "swingers"?