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Bush lost military 2004 poll big time and they deleted the results from view

Last week the ArmyTime.com web site had a poll where Bush was losing the 2004 election with 1/3 of the votes. This week the poll and its results are GONE from the site.

This week's Poll Results: (as of Nov 4, 2003)
If you were going to vote for president right now, which candidate would you support:

Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun 1.96 % (764)
Gen. Wesley Clark (Ret.) 21.92 % (8,532)
Gov. Howard Dean 12.00 % (4,670)
Sen. John Edwards 9.37 % (3,648)
Rep. Dick Gephardt 0.62 % (243)
Sen. John Kerry 3.92 % (1,527)
Rep. Dennis Kucinich 16.02 % (6,236)
Sen. Joe Lieberman 0.63 % (245)
Rev. Al Sharpton 1.19 % (464)
President George W. Bush 32.37 % (12,601)
Total votes: 38930

homepage: homepage: http://www.armytimes.com/static.php?f=view.php

um... 11.Nov.2003 19:38


If I'm reading this correctly, this poll doesn't show him losing anything...


numbers fumbler

GBF seems to think that in this poll, Bush is the WINNER! While it's true he polls at 32.37%, which is the highest polling rate of the entire group, one must remember that the other's are in the aggregate, in "opposition" to him. As things progress along, by September 2004 there will be only one of those listed as being in opposition to him (I, of course, realize that someone else could manage to come in and rise above this lot and be that one!), and if this poll holds valid by that time, then Bush's 32.37% will look piss poor in comparison to that one's 67.63%. In that case, it means that Bush is a LOSER! While liar's may figure, figures don't lie! Go figure!

lies damn lies and statistics 11.Nov.2003 20:48

bright eyes

Eeh, if anything I'd say the truth is somewhere in the middle. Personally, the equation might look like this...

% election votes for democrat = (1.25x % democrat in pool) / (1.25x % democrat in poll + % Bush in Poll).

So say you were running clark against bush...

Clark = 1.25 * 21.92% / (21.92% + 32.37%) = 50.5%
Bush = 100% - Clark = 49.5%

Which statistically is a dead heat. But if you were running Al Sharpton vs Bush, Al would get killed.

Al = 1.25 * 1.19% / (1.19% + 32.37%) = 4.4%
Bush = 100% - Al = 95.6%

It's really hard to say how many democrats in the poll will rally around the selected democratic candidate. My 25% is just a guess. But Bush hasn't even started spending the umpteen billion dollars he's raised so the cynic in me says that he's going to end up Mondale-ing (think vs. Reagan) whomever ends up running against him. Personally, I plan on selling my vote on Ebay.

um, INDEED. 11.Nov.2003 21:39

: )

anybody notice that Kucinich beat Howard Dean in this poll?

Gov. Howard Dean 12.00 % (4,670)
Rep. Dennis Kucinich 16.02 % (6,236)

"only dean can win" 12.Nov.2003 03:01

kucinich fan

i'm not a democrat, and will vote green unless kucinich gets the nomination. everyone says he won't because he can't win (because he's too liberal) and that dean is the only chance. interesting that a poll of folks in the armed services -- not exactly known for their progressive politics -- gave more votes to kucinich than dean. kucinich also got half as many as bush, which is impressive, considering the sample. food for thought, dean bloggers!

Media & Money Trumps Message 12.Nov.2003 17:36

Cold Hard Truth

Anyone could vote on that Army poll. When I went to view it, *I* voted. I suspect that once the word got out, a lot of folks like us visited the site and voted, probably outnumbering the Army pollsters and skewing their results. Re. Kuchinich - His biggest drawback -- unfortunately -- are his looks and demeanor. It shouldn't matter, but in this superficial society, it does. People want a smiley Ken Doll that only tells them what they want to hear in carefully crafted sound bites. Well, you may ask, how did a Howdy Doody Lookalike like Dubya get elected? Money and cheating. That can always trump movie star looks and lightning PR. Unfortunately, Dennis doesn't have billions of dollars. Lest you think I'm down on Dennis, it's not so. I support him wholeheartedly. But I am also a realist.

Time For Some of These Losers to Withdraw Gracefully 12.Nov.2003 17:39

Demo Watch

Why is Lieberman wasting his time and money? His campaign has less life than a beached whale.

poll 12.Nov.2003 19:02


The results are certainly far from being accurate. As stated, anyone can cast a ballott.

I would say that normally, military personnel will vote Republican. By going to the various military sites and chat rooms, it appears that a large % will not vote for the republican party in 2004. Reasons listed are Bushs' attempt to cut hostil fire pay, seperation pay, reduce the yearly pay raise, keeping the reserves and national guard on active duty for a year or more. Health care and veterans benefits, because many will become disabled because of the Iraq war.
Iraq and the economy are factors.

Army Times poll 15.Oct.2004 19:30

Husband of Army wife

Your comment is completely bogus. The Army Times (we have a copy of the newspaper in question) had a major article about Bush and the Iraq war a couple of weeks ago.

The results of multiple polls were broken down by deployed/non-deployed, and active Army or Reserve.

The poll results showed about 75% of active Army (non-deployed) and 78% or deployed Army supported Bush. The results were about 10% lower for Reservists. The results are removed from the website because you have to be a subscriber. No conspiracy theory needed.


Posted 10/3/2004 11:00 PM

Troops in survey back Bush 4-to-1 over Kerry
By Dave Moniz, USA TODAY
An unscientific survey of U.S. military personnel shows they support President Bush for re-election by a 4-to-1 ratio. Two-thirds of those responding said John Kerry's anti-war activities after he returned from Vietnam make them less likely to vote for him.