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World Oil Glut Predicted!

Prices to fall by 50% over next 18 months!
A U.S. plan for getting Iraq back on its feet may deliver a body blow to the economies of oil-producing Gulf states, according to Arab analysts, who are greeting the remarks by Vice President Dick Cheney about Iraq's future crude production with suspicion.

Cheney predicted Iraq may be able to pump as much as 3 million barrels of oil a day by the end of this year, which would generate annual sales of $20 billion to help it rebuild.

The total cost of reconstruction in Iraq is estimated to reach $100 billion.

Iraq averaged production of 2.48 million barrels a day in February, according to Bloomberg News estimates and currently produces 1.7 million barrels a day, according to Arab News.

Arab analysts allege the U.S., the world's largest oil consumer, will seek to pump up Iraq's production quotas as a way to drive down the price.

Adnan Jaber, economic editor of Al-Watan, told Arab News the drop in oil prices could have a domino effect on other sectors of the economy in Saudi Arabia and across the region, exacerbating an existing unemployment problem.

"It is worth noting that while the U.S. forces allowed the Iraqis to loot and plunder various ministries, the only one they protected against public intrusion and theft was the Ministry of Petroleum," Adnan said.

Oil prices slid nearly 5 percent yesterday as Kurdish fighters took control in the oil-rich city of Kirkuk in northern Iraq, easing fears of damage to Iraqi oil fields, which in turn contributed to fears a glut may be on the horizon.

The International Energy Agency reported global oil production last month rose to a record 80.3 million barrels a day.

"OPEC is worried, and with good reason,'' Jim Steel, director of commodity research at Refco Inc. in New York, told Bloomberg News. "Production is up, and it will be difficult to get the different nations to reduce output by enough to support prices.''

Top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia increased output last month after Iraqi production was disrupted by the war. The reported daily production surplus is now 2 million barrels.

"There is an awful lot of oil out there," Kyle Cooper, a Citigroup Inc. analyst in Houston, told Bloomberg. "Even if the Saudis cut production by 1 million barrels, supplies will grow. Nigerian production is increasing and there could still be further increases from Venezuela. OPEC members hate cutting output because it means a decline in income.''

OPEC will consider whether to cut production quotas at a proposed emergency meeting planned for later this month or early May.

Adnan suspects the U.S. would pull Iraq out of OPEC to undercut the oil-quota system.

"After all, the U.S. bypassed the U.N. Security Council in going to war against Iraq. It could just as well bypass OPEC in its quest for cheap Iraqi oil, since Iraq has 300 billion barrels of underground oil reserves," he asserted.

The suspicions in the Arab world may explain why Bush administration officials plan to revive strained relations with the United Nations Security Council. As WorldNetDaily reported, Secretary of State Colin Powell said the U.S. will seek new resolutions regarding management details in post-war Iraq.

"We need an endorsement of the authority, an endorsement of what we're doing in order to begin selling oil in due course, and in order to make sure that the humanitarian supplies continue to flow in the oil-for-food program," Powell said in an interview with the Los Angeles Times.

homepage: homepage: http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=31998

Cool beans! 11.Apr.2003 11:27

df

this is really good news, unless you are some tufu licker..

Dream on, FOOLS! 11.Apr.2003 11:41

Jack Straw

Dream on, FOOLS! Global peak oil production is coming soon, if not already here. < http://www.dieoff.org>

Great News 11.Apr.2003 11:51

Victor Vet

"Prices to fall by 50% over next 18 months'!"

Great News! I'm tired of $2 gas.

you dream on butthead 11.Apr.2003 12:29

df

that stupid website doens't list any geophysics references. its just a bunch of charts made up by hippies!

There is plenty of oil in ANWR and we will be drilling that shortly...

When the world does run out of cheap fossil fuels, we'll find something else to burn. Like greazy hippies..

oil oil everywhere! 11.Apr.2003 15:21

duh

here's the information you requested on the
geophysics of declining production. historical reference can be found by examining what happened to the coal extraction industry & also to domestic (lower 48) oil production.

 http://www.hubbertpeak.com/experts/

don't miss the bibliographical page
 http://www.hubbertpeak.com/library/

even if you don't believe the earth will ever run out of oil, this book is a good read all the same:
 http://pup.princeton.edu/titles/7121.html

take it easy!

World without oil 11.Apr.2003 17:34

tom

.

One "greazy hippy" is about 70 kilos of water and maybe 20 kilos of grease. It would take a lot of energy to render all that grease, so you wouldn't get 100% energy conversion by any stretch of the imagination. Maybe 10 kilos of oil. That's 10 liters, or enough to run a Hummer about 15 miles. And talk about stink. Rendering flesh is pretty foul work.

So the 1,000,000 greasy hippies that muck up the works for the neo-cons could all be rendered to oil, and drive their Hummers 12 million miles. Or, a thousand Hummers could go 12,000 miles-- less than a years worth of driving for just the top 1000 neo-cons. Not very good economics.

The world system functioned quite well for several thousands of years of human life (and probably millions of years before that without humans-- unless the world was created 6000 years ago as some of the wacos believe, but of course that doesn't really matter)-- without any oil at all.

I rather like the idea of a return to a slower pace, absence of chemical pollutants, smell of horse dung instead of diesel fumes, etc.

Of course, it doesn't matter what I want. The Bush Cartel will slash and burn until its all gone-- 100 years, 500 years, what does it matter-- and then its back to solar power no matter what the Cartel wants

A few resources for those in denial 12.Apr.2003 11:35

Under Construction

wwwistp.murdoch.edu.au/publications/ projects/oilfleay/ClxOil.pdf

www.energycrisis.co.uk/laherrere/opec2001.pdf

www.dti.gov.uk/energy/developep/private_ind/ loram_rg_f_inst_e.pdf

hubbert.mines.edu/news/Campbell_01-2.pdf

It will be interesting to see what contortions the trolls go through to try to portray technical writing from Establishment sources as the work of "greasy hippies".

Simply put, there's no longer a question of whether worldwide oil production will peak and then begin declining; the question remaining is when.

It's likely that there are enough hydrocarbons in the ground to keep the refined petroleum products we're familiar with available- but producing them from the Earth's second-string resources will demand energy usage equal to or greater than the energy content of the finished product. That- the availability and cost of energy in general- is what makes continued growth in oil demand problematic.

It's remarkable how people can, in their own lives, plan prudently for predictable future events- saving money for a rainy day, reducing expenses in response to economic uncertainty, buying health insurance, even confronting the inevitability of one's own death and buying life insurance to mitigate its effect on others- and yet be utterly unwilling to consider that similar thinking and action are warranted in the collective sphere.

BTW- the reserves in the ANWR represent about six months of US usage- at current demand levels. That's not much of a hedge.