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Story telling, change detection, and truth maintenance

Poindexter was convicted of five felonies involving conspiracy, obstruction of Congress, and perjury (omigod!), but his conviction was overturned by Reagan-appointed judicial thugs Lawrence Silberman and David Sentelle. Since the Shrub Administration is comprised entirely of criminals, it was only natural that Poindexter would get a plum job - head of Bush's new Office of Information Awareness.
Iran-Contra Felon John Poindexter's New Gig is 'Truth Maintenance'

IAO Mission: The DARPA Information Awareness Office (IAO) will imagine, develop, apply, integrate, demonstrate and transition information technologies, components and prototype, closed-loop, information systems that will counter asymmetric threats by achieving total information awareness useful for preemption; national security warning; and national security decision making.
IAO Vision: The most serious asymmetric threat facing the United States is terrorism, a threat characterized by collections of people loosely organized in shadowy networks that are difficult to identify and define. IAO plans to develop technology that will allow understanding of the intent of these networks, their plans, and potentially define opportunities for disrupting or eliminating the threats. To effectively and efficiently carry this out, we must promote sharing, collaborating and reasoning to convert nebulous data to knowledge and actionable options. IAO will accomplish this by pursuing the development of technologies, components, and applications to produce a proto-type system. Example technologies include:

Collaboration and sharing over TCP/IP networks across agency boundaries
Large, distributed repositories with dynamic schemas that can be changed interactively by users
Foreign language machine translation and speech recognition
Biometric signatures of humans
Real time learning, pattern matching and anomalous pattern detection
Entity extraction from natural language text
Human network analysis and behavior model building engines
Event prediction and capability development model building engines
Structured argumentation and evidential reasoning
Story telling, change detection, and truth maintenance
Business rules sub-systems for access control and process management
Biologically inspired algorithms for agent control
Other aids for human cognition and human reasoning
It is difficult to counter the threat that terrorists pose. Currently, terrorists are able to move freely throughout the world, to hide when necessary, to find unpunished sponsorship and support, to operate in small, independent cells, and to strike infrequently, exploiting weapons of mass effects and media response to influence governments. This low-intensity/low-density form of warfare has an information signature, albeit not one that our intelligence infrastructure and other government agencies are optimized to detect. In all cases, terrorists have left detectable clues that are generally found after an attack. Even if we could find these clues faster and more easily, our counter-terrorism defenses are spread throughout many different agencies and organizations at the national, state, and local level. To fight terrorism, we need to create a new intelligence infrastructure to allow these agencies to share information and collaborate effectively, and new information technology aimed at exposing terrorists and their activities and support systems. This is a tremendously difficult problem, because terrorists understand how vulnerable they are and seek to hide their specific plans and capabilities. The key to fighting terrorism is information. Elements of the solution include gathering a much broader array of data than we do currently, discovering information from elements of the data, creating models of hypotheses, and analyzing these models in a collaborative environment to determine the most probable current or future scenario. DARPA has sponsored research in some of these technology areas, but additional research and development is warranted to accelerate, integrate, broaden, and automate current approaches.

Bush Administration
Remember John Poindexter? He was Ronald Reagan's National Security Advisor from 1985-86, until a dirty little secret was exposed about a Secret Government that Poindexter was running with criminals like Oliver North and Elliot Abrams. Poindexter was convicted of five felonies involving conspiracy, obstruction of Congress, and perjury (omigod!), but his conviction was overturned by Reagan-appointed judicial thugs Lawrence Silberman and David Sentelle. Since the Shrub Administration is comprised entirely of criminals, it was only natural that Poindexter would get a plum job - head of Bush's new Office of Information Awareness. Poindexter's mission is fascinating, but here's the one we like best: "Story telling, change detection, and truth maintenance." What is "truth maintenance," you ask? Here's a clue: read Poindexter's bio ( http://www.darpa.mil/iao/PoindexterBio.pdf) and see if you can find the words "convict", "felon," or "Iran-contra." No luck? Gee, isn't "truth maintenance" fun?

homepage: homepage: http://www.darpa.mil/iao/

Bio- Surveillance 12.Oct.2002 01:04



Bio- Surveillance
Program Manager: Mr. Ted Senator

Program Objective:
The goal of the Bio-Surveillance program is to develop the necessary information
technologies and resulting prototype capable of detecting the covert release of
a biological pathogen automatically, and significantly earlier than traditional
approaches. The key to mitigating a biological attack is early detection.
Given the availability of appropriate medications, as many as half the expected
casualties could be prevented if an attack is detected only a few days earlier
than it would have otherwise been identified. For contagious biological
agents, early detection is also clearly paramount. The Bio-Surveillance program
will dramatically increase DoD's ability to detect a clandestine biological
warfare attack in time to respond effectively and so avoid potentially thousands
of casualties.
Program Strategy:
The Bio-Surveillance program is seeking to achieve its objective by monitoring
non-traditional data sources such as animal sentinels, behavioral indicators,
and pre-diagnostic medical data. Technical challenges include
correlating/integrating information derived from heterogeneous data sources,
development of autonomous signal detection algorithms, refinement of disease
models for autonomous detection, and ensuring privacy protection while
correlating widely differing data and sources.
Planned Accomplishments:
FY02/ FY03: The Bio-Surveillance program will leverage existing disease
models, identify abnormal health early indicators, and mine existing databases
to determine the most valuable early indicators for abnormal health
FY02/ FY03: The program will also develop techniques to determine the best
way to differentiate "normal" outbreaks of disease from deliberate
bio-terrorist releases.
FY02/ FY03: Enhanced automated privacy protection methods will be developed
to assure the anonymity of records accessed by the data monitoring software.
FY02/ FY03: A prototype bio-surveillance system with appropriate military and
commercial data will be constructed for a citywide area of military interest
and demonstrated in a series of field experiments by injecting simulated
biological event data into the real-time data streams of the testbed system.

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Evidence Extraction and Link Discovery (EELD) 12.Oct.2002 01:19



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Evidence Extraction and Link Discovery (EELD)
Program Manager: Mr. Ted Senator

Program Objective:
The goal of the Evidence Extraction and Link Discovery (EELD) program is
development of technologies and tools for automated discovery, extraction and
linking of sparse evidence contained in large amounts of classified and
unclassified data sources. EELD is developing detection capabilities to extract
relevant data and relationships about people, organizations, and activities from
message traffic and open source data. It will link items relating potential
terrorist groups or scenarios, and learn patterns of different groups or
scenarios to identify new organizations or emerging threats.
Program Strategy:
EELD's initial activities demonstrated the feasibility of extracting
relationships from text, and validated the detectability of patterns
representing terrorist groups and scenarios. EELD has also developed two
promising techniques for learning patterns of activity, developed functional
system concepts to guide technology developments, selected techniques to develop
for evidence extraction, link discovery and pattern learning, identified
scenarios to validate the detectability of patterns in unclassified and
classified data, and initiated the collection and characterization of documents
for technology evaluations.
Planned Accomplishments:
FY 02: EELD will develop and demonstrate technology to extract relationships,
and detect and learn single-link type patterns.
FY 03: EELD will: 1) extend its capabilities to the extraction of data from
multiple sources (e.g., text messages and web pages), with an ability to adapt
rapidly to new threat domains; 2) develop the ability to detect instances of
patterns comprising multiple link types (e.g., financial transactions,
communications, travel, etc.); and, 3) will develop the ability to learn
patterns comprised of multiple types of entities (e.g., persons,
organizations, etc.) and multiple link types.


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Total Information Awareness (TIA) System 12.Oct.2002 01:27


TIA Systems

Total Information Awareness (TIA) System
Program Manager: Dr. John Poindexter
Deputy PM: Dr. Robert Popp

Program Objective:
The Total Information Awareness (TIA) program is a FY02 new-start program. The
goal of the Total Information Awareness (TIA) program is to revolutionize the
ability of the United States to detect, classify and identify foreign terrorists
- and decipher their plans - and thereby enable the U.S. to take timely action
to successfully preempt and defeat terrorist acts. To that end, the TIA program
objective is to create a counter-terrorism information system that: (1)
increases information coverage by an order of magnitude, and affords easy future
scaling; (2) provides focused warnings within an hour after a triggering event
occurs or an evidence threshold is passed; (3) can automatically queue analysts
based on partial pattern matches and has patterns that cover 90% of all
previously known foreign terrorist attacks; and, (4) supports collaboration,
analytical reasoning and information sharing so that analysts can hypothesize,
test and propose theories and mitigating strategies about possible futures, so
decision-makers can effectively evaluate the impact of current or future
policies and prospective courses of action.
Program Strategy:
The TIA program strategy is to integrate technologies developed by DARPA (and
elsewhere as appropriate) into a series of increasingly powerful prototype
systems that can be stress-tested in operationally relevant environments, using
real-time feedback to refine concepts of operation and performance requirements
down to the component level. The TIA program will develop and integrate
information technologies into fully functional, leave-behind prototypes that are
reliable, easy to install, and packaged with documentation and source code
(though not necessarily complete in terms of desired features) that will enable
the intelligence community to evaluate new technologies through experimentation,
and rapidly transition it to operational use, as appropriate. Accordingly, the
TIA program will work in close collaboration with one or more U.S. intelligence
agencies that will provide operational guidance and technology evaluation, and
act as TIA system transition partners.
Technically, the TIA program is focusing on the development of: 1) architectures
for a large-scale counter-terrorism database, for system elements associated
with database population, and for integrating algorithms and mixed-initiative
analytical tools; 2) novel methods for populating the database from existing
sources, create innovative new sources, and invent new algorithms for mining,
combining, and refining information for subsequent inclusion into the database;
and, 3) revolutionary new models, algorithms, methods, tools, and techniques for
analyzing and correlating information in the database to derive actionable
Planned Accomplishments:


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Total Information Awareness (TIA) System
Total Information Awareness (TIA) System

Wargaming the Asymmetric Environment (WAE) 12.Oct.2002 01:35



Wargaming the Asymmetric Environment (WAE)
Program Manager: Mr. Larry Willis

Program Objective:
The goal of the Wargaming the Asymmetric Environment (WAE) program is the
development and demonstration of predictive technology to better anticipate and
act against terrorists. WAE is a revolutionary approach to identify predictive
indicators of attacks by and the behavior of specific terrorists by examining
their behavior in the broader context of their political, cultural and
ideological environment.
Program Strategy:
Test results have demonstrated the feasibility of developing automated and
adaptive behavior prediction models tuned to specific terrorist groups and
individuals. Specifically, WAE has developed, in conjunction with DoD and the
intelligence community, indications and warning models for select terrorist
individuals and organizations. These indication and warning models have been
tested historically, and in some cases operationally, to predict an active
terrorist group's next action (attack/no attack, target characteristics,
location characteristics, tactical characteristics, timeframes, and motivating
factors), and test results have been shown to be statistically significant. To
date, several models have been transitioned to DoD and the Intelligence
Community partners. WAE will extend its predictive technology research to model
a larger set of terrorist groups and individuals, and will strive to increase
the level of detail for each predictive model.
WAE models and capabilities are planned for integration in the Information
Awareness Office's Total Information Awareness (TIA) Program.
Planned Accomplishments:
FY 02: WAE is extending its predictive technology research to model a larger
set of "Tier 0" and "Tier 1" terrorist groups and individuals, and will
further exploit predictive technologies to increase the level of detail for
each predictive model.
FY 03: WAE will develop terrorist specific intervention models based upon
their respective motivational factors.


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Wargaming the Asymmetric Environment (WAE)
Wargaming the Asymmetric Environment (WAE)

Genisys 12.Oct.2002 01:44



Program Manager: Lt Col Douglas Dyer, PhD

Program Objective:

Program Genisys is a FY02 new-start program. The Genisys program's goal is to produce technology enabling ultra-large, all-source information repositories. To predict, track, and preempt terrorist attacks, the U.S. requires a full-coverage database containing all information relevant to identifying: potential foreign terrorists and their possible supporters; their activities; prospective targets; and, their operational plans. Current database technology is clearly insufficient to address this need.

Program Strategy: Much of database technology as it exists today is based on a paradigm defined in the 1980's. Today, computer processors, storage media, and networks are a thousand times more capable. Genisys will reinvent database technology consistent with today's needs and capabilities.

In contrast to today's relational databases, Genisys will: (1) require no a priori data modeling and use a simpler query language, making it easier to dramatically increase the information covereage we now know we need to stop foreign terrorists; (2) support automated restructuring and projection of data, making it easier to declassify and share data between government organizations and with coalition partners; (3) store data in context of time and space to help resolve uncertainty that always exists in data, but is not modeled today; (4) create privacy filters, "aliasing" methods, and automated data expunging agents to protect the privacy of U.S. citizens, and those not involved with foreign terrorists; and, (5) develop a large, distributed system architecture for managing the huge volume of raw data input, analysis results, and feedback, that will result in a simpler, more flexible data store that performs well and allows us to retain important data indefinitely. In so doing, the Genisys program will demonstrate technologies as well as develop a series of increasingly powerful leave-behind prototypes that both provide immediate value to the Intelligence Community and stimulate feedback to guide follow-on research.

Planned Accomplishments:

FY02: Genisys will produce several prototype designs consistent with program goals.

FY02: Genisys prototypes that embody these designs will be produced, characterized technically, and field-tested in one or more intelligence organizations.

- http://www.darpa.mil/iao/Genisys.htm-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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GENOA GENOA2 TIDES 12.Oct.2002 02:03



Program Manager: Lt Col Douglas Dyer, PhD

Program Objective:
Project Genoa, in the process of concluding, provides the structured
argumentation, decision-making and corporate memory to rapidly deal with and
adjust to dynamic crisis management.
Program Strategy:
Project Genoa is developing information technology for the intelligence
community to rapidly and systematically accumulate evidence, facilitate
collaboration (while protecting critical information), and test hypothesis that
support decision-making at the national level. Bases on successful
demonstrations, the Defense Intelligence Agency has aggreed to be a transition
partner for Project Genoa technology.
Planned Accomplishments:
FY00: Project Genoa matured and transitioned a new "thematic" search engine
(that complements traditional search engines by allowing users to find nuggets
of information in large collections of documents without having to construct a
complicated query) to users on Intelink; and in FY01, Genoa
evidence-accumulation components were delivered to the office of the Secretary
of Defense and Joint Counter-Intelligence Assessment Group (JCAG), a field
element of ASD/C31.
FY02: Completion of Project Genoa technology transition to the Defense
Intelligence Agency.
(Please note: DIA states that they are doing a technology evaluation and one
of the candidates is a vendor who has done extensive work with the Genoa
office and his proposed solutions might include Genoa-based technology but
there has not been any technology transferred to DIA from project to date)

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Genoa II

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Genoa II
Program Manager: Mr. Thomas Armour

Program Objective:
Genoa II is a FY02 new-start program. It will focus on developing information
technology needed by teams of intelligence analysts and operations and policy
personnel in attempting to anticipate and preempt terrorist threats to US
interests. Genoa II's goal is to make such teams faster, smarter, and more
joint in their day-to-day operations. Genoa II will apply automation to team
processes so that more information will be exploited, more hypotheses created
and examined, more models built and populated with evidence, and in the larger
sense, more crises dealt with simultaneously.
Program Strategy:
Genoa II will develop and deploy: 1) cognitive aids that allow humans and
machines to "think together" in real-time about complicated problems; 2) means
to overcome the biases and limitations of the human cognitive system; 3)
"cognitive amplifiers" that help teams of people rapidly and fully comprehend
complicated and uncertain situations; and, 4) the means to rapidly and
seamlessly cut across - and complement - existing stove-piped hierarchical
organizational structures by creating dynamic, adaptable, peer-to-peer
collaborative networks.
Planned Accomplishments:
FY02/ FY03: Design faster systems of humans and machines by assimilating new
information technologies to operational agencies to meet asymmetric threats.
FY02/ FY03: Develop tools for cognitive amplification by extending the
ability of software to model current states, estimate plausible futures,
support formal risk analysis, and provide for automated option planning.
Supporting technology includes the use of intelligent agents, cognitive
machine intelligence, associative memory, neural networks, pattern matching,
Bayesian inference networks, and biologically inspired algorithms.
FY02/ FY03: Develop tools for cross-agency collaboration designed to operate
across existing hierarchical organizations while maintaining control and
accountability. Areas under consideration will include: KM; corporate
memory; context-driven, declarative-policy enforcement; self-aware data;
business rules; self-governance; and automated planning.

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Translingual Information Detection, Extraction and Summarization (TIDES)
Program Manager: Mr. Charles Wayne

Program Objective:
The Translingual Information Detection, Extraction and Summarization (TIDES)
program is developing advanced language processing technology to enable English
speakers to find and interpret critical information in multiple languages
without requiring knowledge of those languages.
Program Strategy:
Conduct research to develop effective algorithms for detection, extraction,
summarization, and translation -- where the source data may be large volumes of
naturally occurring speech or text in multiple languages.
Measure accuracy in rigorous, objective evaluations. Outside groups are invited
to participate in the annual Information Retrieval, Topic Detection and
Tracking, Automatic Content Extraction, and Machine Translation evaluations run
by NIST.
Integrate core capabilities to form effective text and audio processing (TAP)
systems. Experiment with those systems on real data with real users, then refine
and iterate.
Planned Accomplishments:
FY 02: Improve core detection, extraction, and summarization algorithms.
Experiment with effective ways to integrate those core capabilities in text
and audio processing (TAP) systems.
FY 03: Demonstrate initial machine translation capabilities employing novel
approaches. Transition effective TIDES technology into the Information
Awareness Office's Total Information Awareness (TIA) program.


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